Weekly Market Review:

Last week, a rebound in technology stocks propelled the S&P 500 to a 4% gain, positioning it to once again challenge historical highs. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields continued to decline, reflecting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to approximately 10 basis points. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated around the 101 level.

Key Economic Data Review:

China CPI: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-over-year in July (previous: 0.5%). The rise in August was similarly influenced by extreme weather conditions, which drove food prices higher. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI stood at 0.3% (previous: 0.4%). Regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI), August’s PPI decreased by 1.8% year-over-year (previous: -0.8%), marking the 23rd consecutive month of decline. This indicates that deflationary pressures in China are persisting and showing signs of intensification.

Read more at Datatrack

United States CPI: U.S. CPI increased by 2.5% year-over-year in August (previous 2.9%), with a monthly rise of 0.2% (same as the previous 0.2%). Breaking down the components, the year-over-year growth rate of housing services prices rebounded to 5.2% in August (previous: 5.1%). However, due to energy prices declining by 4% year-over-year (previous: +1.1%) pulled the overall CPI lower. Core CPI remained steady at 3.2% year-over-year (same as the previous 3.2%), with a monthly increase of 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Both CPI and core CPI annual growth rates were the lowest since February 2021.

Read more at Datatrack

Eurozone Monetary Policy: In its September policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% and announced the narrowing of the interest rate corridor, effective from September 18. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered by 60 basis points, reducing their respective spreads to 15 and 25 basis points relative to the deposit facility rate. On the economic outlook, the ECB raised its core inflation forecast for 2024 to 2026 to 2.9%, 2.3%, and 2.0% (June forecasts: 2.5%, 2.2%, and 1.9%), citing stronger-than-expected service sector inflation. However, due to restrictive financial conditions dampening private consumption and investment, the ECB lowered its economic growth projections for 2024 to 2026 to 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.5% (June forecasts: 0.9%, 1.4%, and 1.6%).

Read more at Datatrack

Key Data to Watch This Week:

U.S. Retail Sales (9/17): U.S. retail sales grew by 2.7% year-over-year in July (previous 2.0%), with a monthly increase of 1% (previous -0.2%). The July rise was largely driven by a 4% rebound in auto sales, reflecting recovery from the June slowdown caused by a cyberattack. The market expects August retail sales to normalize, with year-over-year growth slowing to 2.2% and a monthly increase of 0.2%.

Read more at Datatrack

U.S. Monetary Policy (9/19): During the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the time for policy adjustments had arrived, raising market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. However, recent mixed U.S. economic data have created uncertainty regarding the size of the rate cut. According to Fed Watch data, the probabilities of a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point cut are both at 50%.

Read more at Datatrack

Japan Monetary Policy (9/20): After the Bank of Japan raised rates in July and indicated that it would refrain from further hikes in times of market instability, the market expects the BOJ to hold rates steady at this meeting, with the possibility of another rate hike in October or December.

Read more at Datatrack

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(Photo Crited: Pixabay )

TSMC’s fab in Kikuyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan (Kumamoto Fab 1) is expected to begin mass production by the end of 2024, with plans for a second fab in the region. Thus, the influence of TSMC’s presence continues to expand, as per the latest estimates from local financial institutions.

Over the next decade, from now until 2031, the economic spillover effect of TSMC’s operations in Kumamoto is projected to surpass 10 trillion yen, marking a 60% increase from a previous estimate in August 2023.

According to a report from Nikkei citing Kyushu Financial Group (Kyushu FG), a new impact estimate has been released on September 5, showing that TSMC’s operations in Kumamoto Prefecture are projected to generate an economic spillover effect of approximately JPY 11.2 trillion over the next 10 years, until 2031.

This marks a 60% increase from the previous estimate of JPY 6.9 trillion published in August 2023. The projected impact on Kumamoto Prefecture’s GDP over the same period has also risen from JPY 3.4 trillion to JPY 5.6 trillion.

Reportedly, the previous estimate from Kyushu FG last August only considered the benefits of TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 1. The latest report, however, includes the planned construction of the Kumamoto Fab 2 in its evaluation.

The upward revision is attributed to the expanded magnetic pull of TSMC’s Kumamoto operations (both fabs). The number of companies expected to set up or invest in the region has increased to 171, roughly double the previous estimate.

Initially, the first Kumamoto fab attracted strong interest from suppliers like Sony and Mitsubishi Electric. Following TSMC’s announcement in February to build a second fab, further investments are expected, not only from within Kumamoto but also from other prefectures and overseas suppliers, particularly from Taiwan.

Additionally, the economic impact is expected to extend to wage levels in Kumamoto Prefecture, with an estimated increase of JPY 380,000 in per capita annual income.

Meanwhile, as stated in an report from Bloomberg on May 11th, Kumamoto’s newly appointed governor, Takashi Kimura, once claimed that he would spare no effort to persuade TSMC to establish a third fab in the region.

In addition, a recent report from Kyodo News citing the interview with Taiwanese Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo has also hinted that TSMC plans to build a third fab in Japan, but with a projected timeline after 2030.

If the third fab is realized, the economic spillover effect is anticipated to expand further.

Read more

• [News] TSMC to Build Third Fab in Japan? The Timing May Be Reportedly after 2030
• [News] TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2 Reportedly Begins Land Preparation

(Photo credit: JASM)

To counter the U.S.’s ongoing semiconductor restrictions launched the U.S., China has outspent the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan combined on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of this year.

However, sources cited by a report from Commercial Times have warned that China’s excessive investment could soon lead to global overcapacity issues in traditional chip production, which is similar to the oversupply problems seen in the electric vehicle and solar energy sectors in recent years.

Per the data cited by CNBC from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), China spent USD 24.73 billion on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of 2024, surpassing the combined USD 23.68 billion spent by the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan during the same period. This surge in spending is driven by China’s efforts to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency amid U.S.-China tensions.

The report further notes that since the U.S. implemented stricter export restrictions in October 2022, Chinese companies have been rapidly accelerating their procurement. SEMI data suggests that China’s total procurement this year is expected to exceed USD 35 billion.

Citing Clark Tseng, Senior Director at SEMI, the report indicated that the current equipment stockpiling trend may continue into the second half of this year and is expected to ease only by 2025 as companies work to absorb excess capacity.

Citing Alex Capri, a Senior Lecturer at the National University of Singapore and Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, CNBC pointed out that Chinese companies are preemptively stockpiling chip manufacturing equipment in response to the risk of further export restrictions from Washington before the U.S. presidential election.

Capri highlighted that as China is making smooth progress in traditional chip production, the world might soon face an oversupply of traditional chips, similar to the overcapacity issues seen in electric vehicles and solar panels.

As a result, companies outside China could struggle to compete in the sector with lower-priced products from Chinese companies.

A previous report from Bloomberg pointed out that China has thus become the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

Read more

• [News] China’s 1H24 Chip Equipment Purchases Exceed Taiwan, Korea, and US Combined, Reaching USD 25 Billion
• [News] China’s Import of Chip Making Equipment Hit New High This Year, with Mature Nodes Driving the Demand

(Photo credit: SMIC)

Intel and Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, are reportedly planning to set up an R&D hub in Japan. As per a report from Tom’s Hardware, the new facility is expected to be built within the next 3-5 years, with a total investment projected to reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

According to a report from Nikkei on September 3rd, this facility is said to be putting more focus on developing advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, as well as introducing Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.

On the other hand, the hub will feature EUV lithography equipment, with AIST overseeing operations and Intel providing expertise in semiconductor manufacturing using EUV equipment.

The report from Nikkei indicates that Rapidus, expected to mass-produce 2nm chips by 2027, will introduce Japan’s first EUV lithography equipment in December 2024. The planned R&D hub, per Nikkei, will become the first research institution in Japan to incorporate such tool. The hub is also considering technical collaboration and talent exchange with U.S. research institutions.

Reportedly, EUV lithography equipment is essential for producing advanced chips below 5nm, but each unit costs over JPY 40 billion, making it difficult for materials and equipment manufacturers to purchase independently.

Therefore, semicondcutor companies may have to be rely on certain research institutions’ EUV equipment overseas to conduct research and product development, such as imec.

The global semiconductor foundry leader, TSMC, established a next-generation semiconductor R&D hub in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, in June 2022. Additionally, Samsung Electronics plans to set up a chip R&D center in Yokohama, Japan, by the end of 2024.

Read more

• [News] Japan’s Chip Equipment Sales Hit Record High This Year, with 23.6% YoY Growth in July
• [News] Intel Reportedly Utilizes Sharp’s LCD Panel Factory for Semiconductor Backend Process

(Photo credit: Intel)

Taiwanese Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo, who was invited to visit Japan, attended a forum on August 30 organized by the Taiwan-Japan Research Institute and delivered a keynote speech. As reported by Kyodo News citing the interview with Kuo, he indicated that TSMC plans to build a third fab in Japan, but with a projected timeline after 2030.

However, Kuo emphasized that the final decision on whether to proceed with the expansion in Japan rests with TSMC, and he refrained from discussing specific site locations.

In addition, in response to Kuo’s comments, the Ministry of Economic Affairs clarified that any details regarding TSMC’s potential third fab should be confirmed with the foundry giant itself.

Reportedly, Kumamoto Prefecture Governor Takashi Kimura visited TSMC’s headquarters on the afternoon of August 26 and held talks with TSMC’s senior executives.

Notably, Takashi Kimura, who took office in April, stated in an report from Bloomberg on May 11th that he would spare no effort to persuade TSMC to establish a third fab in the region, believing that during the preparations for TSMC’s first fab in Kumamoto, the region already possesses better-quality road and water infrastructure and an education system that better supports international school students, which could be advantageous.

TSMC’s fabs in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture (Kumamoto Fab 1) is set to begin mass production in Q4 (October-December), utilizing 28/22nm and 16/12nm process technologies, with a monthly production capacity of 55,000 wafers.

The Kumamoto Fab 2 is scheduled to begin construction at the end of 2024, with the goal of starting operations by the end of 2027, focusing on 6/7nm processes. The combined monthly production capacity of TSMC’s Kumamoto fab 1 and 2 is estimated to exceed 100,000 wafers.

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei mentioned in June that after the successful operation of the first and second fabs, TSMC would consider building a third fab if it receives the approval of the local residents.

Read more

• [News] TSMC Reports No Major Damage to Kumamoto Plant after 7.1 Magnitude Earthquake near Kyushu, Japan
• [News] TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2 Reportedly Begins Land Preparation

(Photo credit: TSMC)