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The memory market is showing signs of recovery, with Japanese NAND giant Kioxia ending its production cut for NAND Flash at the end of June this year. The company’s Yokkaichi Plant and Kitakami Plant have resumed full production capacity. However, this move could influence the overall NAND market, impacting downstream memory companies like Taiwanese NAND manufacturers Phison, ADATA, Team Group and Apacer.
Citing industry sources, a report by the Economic Daily News states that with Kioxia’s capacity utilization returning to 100%, competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix may also increase their production to maintain market share. This potential surge in supply could lead to a market downturn.
Kioxia’s return to full capacity in June means that increased NAND chip production could enter the market as early as August or September, affecting the traditional peak season of downstream Taiwanese NAND controller chip manufacturers such as Phison, ADATA, and Team Group.
The report notes that Phison believes that current market conditions show strong demand for NAND chips used in SSDs. With NAND chip prices having returned to pre-pandemic levels, manufacturers are beginning to see normal profits. To compensate for losses in 2023, prices are expected to remain firm, maintaining a positive cycle.
In contrast, ADATA has a more conservative outlook on the market. The severe losses experienced by major global NAND chip suppliers in 2023 have led to an increase in production capacity and sales to recoup last year’s losses. This could result in another supply glut in the market.
TrendForce observes that restrained production increases in the first half of the year led to a rapid rebound in NAND Flash prices, helping manufacturers return to profitability. However, with significant production expansion planned for the second half of the year and retail market demand still weak, wafer spot prices are declining. The drop has been so significant that some wafer prices are now more than 20% below contract prices, making it difficult to sustain future contract price increases.
From a demand perspective, the third quarter will see continued investments in server infrastructure, particularly benefiting enterprise SSDs due to the expanding use of AI. However, consumer electronics demand remains sluggish, and with aggressive production increases by manufacturers in the latter half of the year, the sufficiency ratio of NAND Flash is expected to rise to 2.3% in the third quarter. The blended price increase for NAND Flash is projected to narrow to 5-10% quarter-on-quarter.
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(Photo credit: Kioxia)
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Japan’s leading NAND flash manufacturer, Kioxia, has reportedly increased its production line utilization rate to 100% as of June and is set to commence mass production of its most advanced NAND flash products in July.
According to a report from Nikkei on July 3rd, Kioxia will start mass-producing its latest NAND flash products at its Yokkaichi plant in July. This move is said to be meeting the rapidly growing data storage demands driven by the proliferation of generative AI. Reportedly, the new NAND flash products Kioxia will produce feature 218-layer 3D flash, offering approximately 50% more storage capacity and requiring about 30% less power for data writing compared to current products.
Per the same report, besides the increasing demand driven by AI, the improvement in the memory market also make Kioxia’s production line utilization rate to return to 100% in June. Previously, Kioxia had been implementing production cuts since October 2022 due to sluggish demand for smartphones, with the reduction scale exceeding 30% at its peak.
In an earlier report from The Register, Kioxia announced a partnership with Western Digital (WD) to invest JPY 729 billion in mass-producing advanced memory products. The new plant, located in the Kitakami plant area, is scheduled to start operations in 2025. The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will provide a subsidy of up to JPY 243 billion (roughly USD 1.63 billion).
In April 2017, Toshiba spun off its semiconductor business focused on NAND Flash, creating “Toshiba Memory.” This entity was renamed “Kioxia” on October 1, 2019. Toshiba currently holds approximately 40% of Kioxia’s shares.
According to another Reuters’ report on June 26th citing sources, they have indicated that Kioxia will soon submit an initial application for listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, aiming for an IPO by the end of October. Kioxia had been evaluating the possibility of going public to raise funds, and with the recovery of the semiconductor market and a rapid improvement in performance, it has determined that the timing is favorable for an IPO.
The sources cited by Reuters further indicate that Kioxia plans to submit its formal IPO application by the end of August, with the goal of going public by the end of October. To meet this timeline, preparations are being carried out at a faster pace than usual for an IPO. However, depending on progress, the IPO could be delayed until December. The sources also noted that Kioxia’s major shareholder, the American investment fund Bain Capital, plans to sell part of its stake during the IPO to recoup some of its investment.
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According to a Reuters report on June 26th citing sources, with semiconductor market conditions rebounding and financial performance rapidly improving, NAND flash leader Kioxia is reportedly gearing up to file a preliminary application soon and aims to debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) through an initial public offering (IPO) by late October.
As per the same report citing sources, Kioxia plans to formally submit its IPO application by the end of August, aiming for a listing by late October. In order to meet the deadline, preparations are proceeding at a faster pace than usual for an IPO, although the timing may be subject to progress and could potentially be delayed until December. The sources further indicated that Bain Capital, a major shareholder of Kioxia, plans to sell part of its stake through the IPO to raise funds.
Kioxia previously obtained approval for listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2020 but postponed its IPO plans due to the US-China trade tensions and adverse market conditions. The source cited in the report mentioned that the funds raised through this IPO might be lower than its initial valuation in 2020.
Toshiba spun off its semiconductor business, which focused on NAND flash, in April 2017. The company is previously named “Toshiba Memory,” which was later renamed to “Kioxia” on October 1, 2019. Toshiba currently holds approximately 40% of Kioxia’s shares.
Previously on May 15th, the improved market environment is also reflected in Kioxia’s financial report for January to March 2024, where the company achieved a net profit of JPY 10.3 billion, ending six consecutive quarters of losses.
This turnaround was driven by improved pricing due to production cuts across various NAND Flash manufacturers, which balanced supply and demand. The consolidated operating profit improved from a loss of JPY 171.4 billion in the same period last year to a profit of JPY 43.9 billion, marking the first quarterly profit in six quarters. Notably, the demand for smartphone and personal computer chips has bottomed out and is starting to recover, while orders related to data centers have increased.
Looking ahead to market trends and future prospects, Kioxia pointed out the normalization of customer inventory levels, which is expected to drive recovery in demand for PC and smartphone applications. They anticipate future growth driven by the introduction of On-Device AI, increasing memory capacities, and potential upgrades in PC operating systems stimulating replacement demand.
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(Photo credit: Kioxia)
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After ending production cuts amidst a recovery in the memory industry, Kioxia disclosed its plans on the 3D NAND roadmap last week. According to reports from PC Watch and Blocks & Files, Kioxia stated that achieving a 1,000-layer level by 2027 would be possible.
According to the reports, the number of 3D NAND layers has generally increased from 24 in 2014 to 238 in 2022, representing a tenfold rise over eight years. Kioxia stated that achieving a 1,000-layer level by 2027 would be possible at a rate of increase of 1.33 times per year.
The Japanese memory chipmaker seems to be more ambitious than Samsung regarding the battle of layers. In May, Samsung revealed its target to release advanced NAND chips with over 1000 layers by 2030. According to Wccftech, the South Korean memory giant plans to apply new ferroelectric materials on the manufacturing of NAND to achieve this goal.
According to the latest analysis from TrendForce, Kioxia has benefited from the recovery of the memory industry, recently receiving subsidies from the Japanese government and additional financing from a consortium of banks. Furthermore, the company plans to launch an IPO by the end of the year. These measures have provided Kioxia with ample financial resources to pursue technological advancements and cost optimization.
TrendForce further notes that Kioxia has ambitious plans to achieve 1000-layer technology by 2027, which is the highest number of layers announced by any manufacturer so far. However, to reach the milestone, it will be necessary to transition from TLC (3 bits per cell) to QLC (4 bits per cell), and possibly even to PLC (5 bits per cell). The technical challenges involved are significant, and whether Kioxia can achieve this market milestone by 2027 remains to be seen.
The Battle of Layers between Memory Giants
Kioxia and its partner Western Digital showcased their 218-layer technology in 2023 following the 162-layer milestone. Its current announcement to achieve the 1000-layer technology by 2027 would be a huge leap from that.
The battle of layers between memory giants has been intensifying as other memory heavyweights had already surpassed the 200-layer milestone. Earlier in April, Samsung confirmed that it has begun mass production for its one-terabit (Tb) triple-level cell (TLC) 9th-generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), with the number of layers reaching 290, according an earlier report by The Korea Economic Daily. For now, the company aims to stack V-NAND to over 1000 layers by 2030.
SK Hynix unveiled the world’s highest-layer 321-layer NAND flash memory samples in August 2023, claiming to have become the industry’s first company developing NAND flash memory with over 300 layers, with plans for mass production by 2025. Micron has also started to mass produce its 232-layer QLC NANDs in 2024.
Uncertainties behind Kioxia’s Optimism
However, to Kioxia, there are more challenges to overcome, as technological obstacles and Western Digital’s stance add uncertainties to its ambition. According to the report from Blocks & Files, increasing density in a 3D NAND die involves more than just adding layers, as each layer’s edge must be exposed for memory cell electrical connectivity. This results in a staircase-like profile, and as the number of layers grows, the die area needed for the staircase expands as well.
Therefore, to increase density, it is necessary to shrink the cell size both vertically and laterally, and to raise the bit level as well. All these scaling factors, including layer counts, vertical cell size reduction, lateral cell size reduction, and cell bit level increases, present their own technological challenges.
Moreover, according to Blocks & Files, WD has concerns regarding the manufacturing capital costs and the return on investment from selling chips and SSDs made with the fabricated NAND dies.
Citing Western Digital EVP Robert Soderbery in June, the report noted that in the 3D era, NAND manufacturing requires higher capital intensity but offers a lower cost reduction as bit density increases. The company even described the situation as the “end of the layers race,” indicating that there would be a slowdown in the rate of NAND layer count increases to optimize capital deployment.
How long would the battle of layers continue, and how far would it go? Technological breakthroughs as well as the willingness to endure higher capital intensity while the cost reduction being relatively limited may be key.
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(Photo credit: Kioxia)
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According to a report from Nikkei, Japanese memory manufacturer Kioxia has ended production cuts amidst a recovery in the memory market and has secured new bank credit support. The company’s plants in Yokkaichi, Mie Prefecture, and Kitakami, Iwate Prefecture, have restored their production lines to 100% capacity, focusing mainly on NAND flash production.
With improved business conditions, creditor banks have reportedly agreed to refinance a maturing loan of JPY 540 billion (roughly USD 3.43 billion) and have established a new credit line totaling JPY 210 billion (roughly USD 1.33 billion).
Kioxia had previously implemented production cuts in October 2022 due to sluggish demand for smartphone products, reducing output by over 30%. The planned launch of new production lines at the Kitakami plant, originally scheduled for 2023, has been postponed to 2025.
The improved market environment is reflected in Kioxia’s financial report for January to March 2024, where the company achieved a net profit of JPY 10.3 billion, ending six consecutive quarters of losses. Demand for smartphone and personal computer chips has bottomed out and is starting to recover, while orders related to data centers have increased.
As per a previous TrendForce report, Kioxia’s Q1 output was still affected by production cuts from the previous quarter, resulting in a modest 7% QoQ increase in shipments. However, rising NAND Flash prices led to a 26.3% QoQ rise in revenue to $1.82 billion. Kioxia expects to grow Q2 revenue by approximately 20%, supported by increased supply bits and more flexible pricing, which will further expand enterprise SSD shipments.
Per the same report from Nikkei, led by a banking consortium including Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, and Mizuho Bank, Kioxia’s improved performance has led to relaxed loan terms and agreement on refinancing along with new credit limits. Additionally, the banks will assist in funding for equipment upgrades.
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(Photo credit: Kioxia)