Amid the escalating tech war between China and the US, along with rising geopolitical tensions, China has accelerated its import of chip manufacturing equipment since the middle of last year to counter potential US chip sanctions, with Dutch company ASML and Japanese company Tokyo Electron (TEL) benefited the most.

Notably, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), despite US sanctions preventing China from acquiring advanced EUV lithography equipment from ASML, it reported that China’s spending on chip manufacturing equipment has reached USD 25 billion in the first half of this year, exceeding the combined total of Korea, Taiwan, and the US. SEMI data also shows that China’s spending remained strong in July and is expected to set a new annual record.

Meanwhile, per the trade data from China’s General Administration of Customs cited by Bloomberg, from January to July this year, Chinese companies imported chip manufacturing equipment worth nearly USD 26 billion, surpassing the previous record set in the same period in 2021.

SEMI projects that China will become the largest investor in new fab construction, including equipment purchases. It is expected that the country’s total spending on chip equipment for the entire year of 2024 will reach USD 50 billion.

Clark Tseng, SEMI’s senior director of market intelligence, further highlighted that at least more than 10 tier-two chip manufacturers are actively purchasing new equipment, which is driving China’s overall spending.

China is now reportedly the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

Additionally, per a report from Commercial Times, amid a global economic slowdown, China is the only region where chip manufacturing equipment spending increased in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

Tseng also noted that SEMI anticipates spending on new plant construction in China will “normalize” over the next two years.

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As semiconductor giants, including Intel, TSMC and Samsung, have been competing fiercely in the Angstrom era for advanced nodes, the progress on their adoption of ASML’s High-NA EUV (high-numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet) equipment has been brought back into spotlight lately. However, the semiconductor market, which seems to get more polarized in the meantime, may rely more on China than most people have imagined.

ASML: China is Ten Years behind the U.S. regarding Cutting-edge Chips

In May, without the assistance for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines manufactured by ASML, China’s largest foundry, SMIC, is rumored to produce 5nm chips for Huawei this year. However, ASML’s CEO has denied the possibility that China would be able to replicate EUV technology.

According to an interview by Germany media Handelsblatt in July, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that the EUV technology, which the Dutch semiconductor heavyweight boasts of, is highly complex. Wccftech, citing Fouquet’s remarks in the interview, noted that it would be extremely difficult for China to replicate because the country lacks the know-how.

Citing Fouquet, the reports noted that regarding the development of cutting-edge chips, China is about ten years behind the U.S.

The World in Dire Need of the Legacy Chips Produced by China

However, Fouquet argued that chip buyers, including those in the German automotive industry, are in need of older generation computer chips, an area in which Chinese chipmakers are currently increasing their investments.

His remarks highlight the importance of China’s semiconductor production for global markets, which may still thrive under U.S. export restrictions.

According to the reports, Fouquet stated that though global demand for the legacy chips have been soaring dramatically, Europe cannot even meet half of its own needs. As manufacturing these chips is not very profitable, Western firms are not investing enough in the sector, Fouquet said.

Therefore, neither did he agree with the extensive, tightening chip controls recently. Fouquet noted that it doesn’t make sense to prevent someone from producing something you need.

Peter Wennink, former CEO of ASML, stated in July that the chip war between China and the US lacks factual basis and is entirely driven by ideology. Wennink also anticipated that this chip war will not be resolved anytime soon and could potentially persist for decades.

China Contributes up to 50% Revenue of the World’s Top 5 Chip Equipment Makers

Take a look at the latest financial results of the world’s top semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and we may find where the strong momentum of China has led to.

ASML, as the world’s exclusive EUV provider, reported second-quarter earnings and sales (USD 6.8 billion) that beat forecasts, as AI chips drives up demand for the Dutch firm’s critical semiconductor making equipment.

More importantly, regarding ASML’s sales in lithography units in the second quarter of 2024, China emerged as the largest market, as it contributed 49% of the revenue, higher than South Korea’s 28% and Taiwan’s 11%.

It is worth noting that a year ago, in the second quarter of 2023, China only accounted for 24% of ASML’s sales in lithography units, while Taiwan and South Korea contributed 34% and 27%, respectively. The results, in a way, have reflected China’s ambition and importance in chip making, as Fouquet noted.

Despite export controls, China has also become the largest market by region for U.S. semiconductor equipment giant, Applied Materials. In the second quarter, China accounted for 43% of its total sales of Applied Materials, a 22 percentage point increase YoY, while Taiwan and South Korea contributed 15% and 15%, respectively.

The dominance of the Chinese market is also evident with other major semiconductor equipment makers. China contributed 39% of Lam Research’s revenue in the June quarter, 2024, much higher than 26% a year ago.

Tokyo Electron, on the other hand, attributed as high as 49.9% revenue to China for the first quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, compared with 39.3% a year ago. China accounted for 44% of KLA’s revenue in the June quarter, 2024.

As DUV systems, which have not been extensively regulated, can still be applied to nodes down to 7nm, or even 5nm, Chinese chipmakers, with the support of government, may continue to hold a significant position in the global semiconductor ecosystem.

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The world’s top five semiconductor equipment manufacturers have released their latest financial reports, signaling a surge in demand for advanced manufacturing equipment and positive signs of industry recovery.

The US has continuously thwarted efforts by equipment suppliers to export advanced machinery to China—citing national security concerns—mid its ongoing tech conflict. How have companies like Applied Materials, ASML, TEL, Lam Research, and KLA been impacted by the US’s stringent export controls on China?

Applied Materials

Applied Materials reported US$6.71B in 1Q24 earnings—marking a less than 1% decline in revenue. The Chinese market, doubling its revenue to $3B last quarter, emerged as a bright spot, jumping from a 17% share a year ago to 45%.

This surge is primarily due to China’s urgent push to build capacity for internet devices, telecommunications, automotive, power, and sensors. Despite not expecting to maintain the current growth rate, Applied Materials believes the continued demand for more chips will drive market development.

ASML

ASML, seen as a weathervane for the industry, reported 4Q23 net sales of €7.2B, up from €6.7B in Q3. With annual sales reaching €27.6B in 2023 and a 26.3% sales share in China, ASML has surpassed South Korea to become its second-largest market.

However, ASML warns that geopolitical tensions and potential US export control expansions to China remain operational risks. The company estimates that US and Dutch export controls could reduce its sales of mid-range DUV equipment to China by about 10–15% this year.

TEL

TEL posted 3Q24 revenues of ¥463.6B, with China accounting for 46.9% of its revenue, a 42.8% QoQ increase. TEL expects continued strong demand from China, noting that the country produces only a small portion of the chips it needs and will actively invest to reduce reliance on foreign technology. This momentum is expected to continue into 2025.

Lam Research

Lam Research saw a 7.9% QoQ increase in 2Q24 revenue to $3.76B, with the share of revenue from the Chinese market decreasing from 48% to 40%. With the semiconductor industry expected to grow robustly in the coming years, driven by innovations like AI, Lam Research is poised to benefit.

The company expects equipment expenditures by DRAM manufacturers to grow due to increased HBM production and process transitions, while NAND manufacturers’ expenditures will strengthen with technological upgrades.

KLA

KLA reported a 16.7% YoY decrease in 2Q24 revenue to $2.487B, with China remaining its largest revenue contributor, though its share dropped from 43% in Q1 to 41%. KLA estimates a mid-point revenue of $2.3B for this quarter.

The demand for wafer fabrication equipment is expected to reach the higher end of the $80B range in 2024, with the second half of the year anticipated to outperform the first.

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