According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments will reach 47.26 million units in 1Q22, down 20% QoQ. Driven primarily by the Russian-Ukrainian war, prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas have risen, while the recent breakout of the Omicron strain of the pandemic in China has incited repeated no warning attempts at enacting dynamic zero-COVID, which has hindered the flow of logistics, hiked freight rates, and taken as a whole, exacerbated existing global inflation woes. Consumers with limited disposable income have started to cut back on non-essentials with TV sales bearing the brunt. Looking at the three major TV sales regions of North America, Europe, and China in 1Q22, high inflation in Europe and the United States has led to a sharp 20% drop in demand. In China, due the festering pandemic, numerous cities have been locked down, while unemployment is spiking, logistics are impeded, and prices soar. TV product sales are at a complete disadvantage and the demand in 1Q22 dropped by 15~20%.

TrendForce further points out, originally Chinese brands banked on low 2Q22 panel prices and not being required to shoulder expensive shipping costs in the domestic market, expecting that the 618 anniversary promotional period would inject fresh enthusiasm into the market and boost annual shipments. However, now that China’s TV sales are disrupted by the pandemic, any hope riding on TV brands’ only large-scale promotional event in the first half of the year may have been dashed. In addition, Q3 was when brands stocked up in previous years for Black Friday and Christmas season promotions in Europe and the United States. However, this year’s FIFA World Cup was postponed to November, resulting in overlapping promotional schedules, which may curb sales. Ocean freight remains expensive this year, with additional costs increasing with greater item size, which is not conducive to the rollout of branded manufacturers’ large-scale promotional activities in 2H22. Therefore, TrendForce estimates that this year’s TV shipments will drop further to 212 million units, for an annual growth of only 1%, and there exists additional potential for downward risk.

Demand in Europe and US misses estimates, international brands drop orders, and 2Q22 decline in TV panel prices expands further

The top two leading TV brands, Samsung and LG Electronics, are mainly sold in North America and Europe. Therefore, since TV sales in Europe and the United States declined by 20% in 1Q22, this had the greatest impact on these two leading brands. Samsung Electronics shipped 10.9 million TVs in 1Q22, down 3.1% QoQ while LG Electronics shipped 6.53 million TVs in 1Q22, down 11.8% QoQ and down 6.4% YoY. Affected by weak terminal demand, the two major brands revised their panel purchase orders in late March. Samsung’s purchasing volume in 1Q22 was revised down 7.5% and fell by 9.5% in 2Q22. LG Electronics primarily focused on reducing purchase orders in 2Q22 and purchasing volume decline is expected to exceed 20%.

TrendForce specifically states, major international manufacturers have recently revised their orders in succession. Although Chinese brands have yet to see a significant reduction in orders, if 618 promotions are disappointing, it cannot be ruled out panel procurements will begin to fall in mid-to-late Q2. Although branded manufacturers significantly revised TV panel orders downward in 2Q22, panel manufacturers have not seen a significant reduction in utilization rate, which will depress the price of panels below 55 inches (inclusive) in a sustained freefall while the prices of large size panels above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to deteriorate.

Samsung Electronics delays launch of WOLEDs, styming 2022 OLED TV shipment performance

This year, the supply of OLED TV panels has benefited from LG Display’s expanded production capacity of 8.5-generation OLED TVs in Guangzhou. As supply increased, LG Display also improved product specifications and prices, but this led to Samsung Electronics delaying the verification and launch schedule of white OLED products. Not only has Samsung Electronics’ 2022 market share of OLED TVs shrunk from 15% at the beginning of the year to 6.4%, but global OLED TV shipments will be revised down to 7.79 million units this year, with an annual growth rate of 17%.

As TV demand increased in North America in 1H21 following the distribution of stimulus packages, TV brands continued to replenish their component inventories during this time, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Notably, brands adopted a rolling schedule for their TV shipment because their manufacturing operations for TV sets were disrupted by a shortage of panels in 2Q21. TV shipment for 1H21 reached 98.45 million units, a 10% YoY increase.

Although supply issues related TV components have become gradually alleviated in 3Q21, TrendForce believes that retail prices of TV sets in 2H21 are unlikely to reach the rock bottom levels previously seen in 1H21 because the massive price hike of TV panels in 1H21 had led to a surge in TV manufacturing costs. In addition, as the market anticipates the possibility of an overall downturn in demand despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, TrendForce has once again revised its forecast of annual TV shipment for 2021 down to 215 million units, a 0.9% YoY decrease.

Chinese and Korean TV brands were major contributors to the growth of TV shipment for 1H21 while shipment of ultra large-sized TVs remained robust

TrendForce’s findings show that, although TV shipment for 1H21 fell short of prior forecasts by 5.8%, shipment from the two largest brands SEC (Samsung Electronics Co) and LGE (LG Electronics) comprised more than 20% of total large-sized TV shipment for the first time, thereby propelling their TV shipments for 1H21 above 20.7 million units for SEC and 14.01 million units for LGE. In particular, SEC’s large-sized (65-inch and above) TV shipment underwent a staggering 25% YoY increase for 1H21. Hence, the two brands’ strategy to eschew profit loss from the surge in panel prices by upgrading their product specs and increasing the shipment of larger-sized products proved to be relatively successful.

Despite nonstop issues with the supply of components required for TV set manufacturing in 1H21, TCL and Hisense were able to lower the manufacturing costs of their TV sets by increasing their shipments and adjusting their product mixes. For 1H21, TCL and Hisense increased their TV shipments by 11.5% and 9.5% YoY to 11.05 million units and 8.94 million units, respectively, with both companies setting records in terms of shipment volumes. In particular, 55-inch (and above) TVs accounted for 36.5% and 40.2%, of the 1H21 TV shipment from TCL and Hisense, respectively, meaning they shipped more large-sized TVs in 2021 than in any previous year. Xiaomi, the only brand among the top five to record a YoY drop in its TV shipment, saw its shipment reach 5.52 million units, a 6.6% YoY decline, despite occupying a larger share of TV shipment in China compared to TCL or Hisense. While Xiaomi struggled with rising manufacturing costs due to the persistent price hike of TV panels, Xiaomi’s decline can primarily be attributed to the fact that it failed to attract consumers despite multiple promotional price cuts in 1H21.

Persistently high prices of TV panels as well as lengthened shipping times in Europe and North America will likely hinder TV sales in 2H21 despite the arrival of the traditional peak season

Issues with TV panel supply are expected to gradually become resolved in 2H21. However, TV brands still need to address ongoing challenges with high panel costs as well as lowered TV demand in Europe and the US now that pandemic-related restrictions are being lifted. From June 2020 to July 2021, prices of 32-inch panels rose by 167%, though retail prices of 32-inch TV sets rose by a mere 30-35%. Similarly, prices of 55-inch panels rose by 120% while retail prices of 55-inch entry-level and mid-range TV sets rose by only 20-25%, with high-end TVs even experiencing a price drop. In other words, promotional price cuts taking place during peak season sales this year are unlikely to be remarkable and result in noticeable sales performances.

Although third quarters have traditionally marked the start of the peak sales season and hence a period of component procurement for TV brands, retail availability of end-products, such as TV sets, was delayed by three to four weeks this year due to port congestions taking place across the globe, which indirectly led to a decline in TV brands’ procurement activities for Europe and North America. Peak season sales, in turn, will likely be relatively muted this year in view of an increase in TV manufacturing costs and lengthened shipping times. Therefore, TrendForce expects TV shipment for 2H21 to reach 117 million units, an 8.5% YoY decrease.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

（Cover image source: Unsplash）

Shipment of curved monitors for 1H21 was constrained by the shortage of such components as panels and scaler ICs, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As countries begin to lift pandemic-related restrictions following increased vaccinations in Europe and the US in 2H21, consumer demand generated by the stay-at-home economy has undergone a noticeable slowdown as well. Taking these factors into account, TrendForce, therefore, expects annual curved monitor shipment for 2021 to reach about 15.6 million units, a 10% YoY increase.

TrendForce finds that curved monitor shipment for 2Q21 reached about 3.41 million units, a 6.1% QoQ decrease. Samsung once again took a leadership position with a quarterly shipment of 1.09 million units and a 32% market share. Coming in second place was AOC/Philips, which posted a 12% market share with a shipment of 410,000 units. Finally, MSI and Dell each took third place and fourth place with 10% and 8% in market share, respectively.

It should be pointed out that, SDC, the largest supplier of curved monitor panels last year, reduced their production of LCD monitor panels considerably in 1H21. As a result, brands which had heavily relied on SDC’s panel supply, including Samsung Electronics, AOC/Philips, HP, and HKC, experienced QoQ declines of 21%, 36%, 64%, and 32%, respectively, in their shipments of curved monitors for 2Q21.

Conversely, LGE, Acer, and Dell saw QoQ increases of 110%, 47%, and 38%, respectively, in their curved monitor shipment for 2Q21 against the market downtrend. These companies’ growths can be attributed to the fact that they did not adopt SDC panels for most of the models in their curved monitor lineups while SDC was the predominant supplier of curved monitor panels. LGE, in particular, did not procure panels from SDC at all. Instead, these aforementioned companies have mostly been sourcing panels from AUO or CSOT for their newly released curved monitors, meaning they will be relatively unaffected by SDC’s shuttering going forward.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

（Cover image source: Unsplash）