• With the Ongoing Expansion of Global EV Battery Market, China’s Dominant Position Steadily Strengthens

In recent years, the rapid growth of EV and energy storage markets has driven robust demand for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs). Data shows that in 2023, the total shipment of LiBs exceeded 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) for the first time, with the market size growing more than tenfold compared to 2015, and EV battery shipment accounted for over 70% of the general battery shipment.

As the electric vehicle and energy storage markets continue to grow, the demand for LiBs will enjoy further expansion, with global LiBs shipment expected to outstrip 3,200 GWh by 2027.

Despite the fact that LiB was initially commercialized in Japan in the 1990s and long dominated by Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, over two decades later, China has leapfrogged the two nations. Currently, over 75% of the world’s LiBs are produced in China, marking China’s top position in manufacturing LiB.

Likewise, in the EV battery sector, which accounts for the largest demand in the LiB market, six out of the top ten manufacturers globally are headquartered in China, including CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, and Sunwoda, which are expected to hold increasingly higher market shares while the market shares of Japanese and South Korean companies is declining year by year.

For instance, Panasonic’s market share in the EV battery market has dropped to around 6%, and the combined market share of South Korean manufacturers to approximately 23%.

However, with the advancement and breakthroughs in next-generation automotive battery technology—all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology—the position of traditional liquid-state battery is being challenged.

• Next-Generation Battery Technology Comes to the Fore

On January 3, 2024, PowerCo, a battery subsidiary of Volkswagen, announced that its partner, QuantumScape, had successfully passed its first endurance test on solid-state batteries, achieving over 1,000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining a capacity of over 95%.

Additionally, in September 2023, another solid-state battery listed company based in the US, Solid Power, announced that its first batch of A-1 solid-state battery samples had been officially delivered to BMW for automotive verification testing. BMW aims to launch its first prototype vehicle based on Solid Power’s solid-state battery technology by 2025.

Last year, Toyota has repeatedly stated its intention to commercialize solid-state battery technology by 2027-2028.

• Does All-Solid-State Battery (ASSB) Technology Truly has the Potential to Overturn Liquid-State Battery Technology?

Traditional liquid-state LiB is primarily composed of cathode and anode electrodes, separator, and electrolyte. The cathode and anode electrode materials play the role of storing lithium, which affects the battery’s energy density, while the electrolyte mainly influences the motion rate of lithium ion during charging and discharging processes, typically using liquid (Organic solvents) as the electrolyte.

However, during the charge-discharge process of traditional liquid-state LiB, side reactions can easily occur on the electrode surface. For example, lithium dendrites formed on the surface of the anode electrode can easily penetrate the separator, causing a short circuit between the cathode and anode electrodes and leading to battery fires.

In addition, the liquid electrolyte is a flammable substance, making liquid-state batteries prone to ignition and explosion under high temperatures or when the battery experiences external impacts that result in a short circuit. Therefore, liquid-state battery faces significant challenges in terms of safety.

Compared to liquid-state LiB, the electrolyte in ASSB is solid, which is less volatile or prone to combustion. Meanwhile, solid-state electrolytes are temperature-stable and less prone to decomposition, rendering them highly safe.

Furthermore, solid-state electrolytes exhibit better stability and mechanical properties, providing superior suppression of lithium dendrites and thereby enhancing battery safety.

On the other hand, traditional liquid-state LiB is limited in their choice of materials due to their narrow electrochemical window and side reactions between the liquid electrolyte and the cathode and anode electrode materials. Solid-state electrolytes, however, offer a wider electrochemical window and fewer side reactions, allowing for a broader range of electrode materials to be used in solid-state battery.

This enables the use of higher energy density active materials. For instance, solid-state battery based on lithium metal anodes can achieve energy densities of over 500 Wh/kg, while liquid-state LiBs can hardly reach this level, with a theoretical energy density limit of 350 Wh/kg. Currently, traditional liquid-state LiBs have approached their theoretical energy density limit, and there’s little room for further improvement.

On top of that, ASSB also boasts better temperature adaptability (-30 to 100°C) and high power characteristic, which can help improve the operating temperature range and fast-charging performance of EV battery.

Meanwhile, as there is no need for liquid electrolytes and separators, the weight of ASSB cells can be reduced. Additionally, processes such as electrolyte filling, degassing, molding, and aging can be removed during the cell assembly process, simplifying the cell manufacturing process. As a whole, given its outstanding performance, ASSB indeed holds the potential to revolutionize liquid-state LiB.

Currently, ASSB, in face of a series of technical challenges, has not yet achieved large-scale production. These challenges include the batch preparation of electrolyte materials, interface stability/side effects between solid materials, as well as the breakthrough of technical hurdles in cell preparation processes, production equipment, and other aspects.

Still, with significant attention and investment from countries worldwide, including Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US, ASSB has made important progresses and is expected to achieve mass production within 3-5 years.

• Will China be Overtaken in the Market Competition of All-Solid-State Battery?

Currently, ASSB has emerged as the high ground in the competition for next-generation battery technology. The development of ASSB has been listed as a national development strategy by major countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea, the US, and the European Union, and global enterprises are actively making inroads in this field.

Based on different solid electrolyte technical routes, ASSB can be divided into four types: polymer, oxide, halide, and sulfide solid-state batteries. Each of these technology routes has its own advantages and disadvantages. Currently, Japan and South Korea mainly select sulfide as the primary technical route.

In light of the development progress of ASSB in major regions globally, Japan is an early starter in R&D, which takes a lead in the application of patents, and accumulates the most solid-state battery patented technologies worldwide. Japanese companies like Toyota and Nissan have stated their intention to achieve mass production of ASSB around 2028.

In South Korea, major battery manufacturers like Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, and LG Energy Solutions continue to invest in R&D. Samsung SDI completed the construction of a pilot production line (S-line) for ASSBs in 2023 and plans to achieve mass production in 2027.

In the United States, solid-state battery development is primarily led by startups with high innovation potential. Companies like QuantumScape and Solid Power have solid-state battery products in the A-sample stage, while SES’ lithium-metal solid-state batteries have entered the B-sample stage. Other US companies such as Ampcera, Factorial Energy, 24M Technologies, and Ionic Materials have channeled more efforts in solid-state battery technical innovation.

Overall, the period around 2028 is expected to be tipping point for the mass production of ASSB.

Although China is currently the world’s largest manufacturer of LiB, there is still a significant gap between Chinese companies and international ones in terms of patent layout for ASSB.

Additionally, China’s solid-state battery technical routes are diverse, with a focus mainly on semi-solid/state-liquid hybrids, with semi-solid-state battery achieving small-scale production and adoption in vehicles, but investment in ASSB remains insufficient in China, and resources are dispersed. This has led to a significant difference compared to international forerunners.

Therefore, in the future competition for ASSB, companies from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US have the opportunity to surpass China and reshape the competitive landscape of future EV battery industry.

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