Source to China Times, on the 25th of this month, Huawei introduced its top-tier flagship smartphone, the Mate 60 RS. The entire supply chain is buzzing with anticipation. However, major chipset manufacturers, MediaTek and Qualcomm, both stand ready for what lies ahead. The reason for their vigilance stems from their previous share of the pie, which was snatched away by Huawei. Now, there’s concern that those gains may slowly be taken back.

For MediaTek, although Huawei’s new phone is positioned as a high-end model, it doesn’t pose a direct threat to MediaTek’s focus on mid-range and low-end 5G chips. However, industry insiders believe that Huawei might not rule out the possibility of launching mid-range and low-end 5G phone chips in the future, deepening the HarmonyOS, which could further squeeze MediaTek’s market share.

Huawei has traditionally used its in-house HiSilicon-designed chips for its smartphones. However, due to US sanctions, Huawei’s market share plummeted, allowing other Chinese smartphone competitors to seize opportunities. MediaTek and Qualcomm benefited from this shift in orders.

Recently, Huawei has made a strong comeback. Following the low-key release of the Mate 60 Pro, it has now unveiled the flagship RS model. After 3 years of intensive efforts, Huawei has achieved comprehensive self-reliance in operating systems, software, databases, and other foundational software. It has also completed the development of domestic alternatives for 13,000 components, investing heavily in the semiconductor supply chain.

The most impacted player in this scenario is Qualcomm, which primarily targets the high-end market. There are even expectations that by 2024, Qualcomm will lose all Huawei smartphone orders. Although MediaTek’s mainstream models have not been directly affected, there’s a possibility that Huawei may strengthen its HarmonyOS ecosystem, gradually penetrating the mid-range and low-end segments. MediaTek needs to remain vigilant. Huawei’s Nova series, for instance, is aimed at mid-range models, and it may not rule out using its in-house Kirin 5G chips to gain a stronger foothold in the market.

The initial stock of the Mate 60 series reached 15 million units, and the shipment target for 2023 has been raised to 20 million units, including foldable phones like the Mate X3 and X5. Supply chain sources suggest that Huawei has internally raised its overall shipment target for 2023 to 40 million units, and the market anticipates even higher volumes of 50 million to 60 million units in 2024.

Industry insiders point out that due to strong demand for Huawei’s products and better-than-expected i15 orders, there are reports of inventory replenishment in the smartphone supply chain. However, in the future, both China and the United States will cultivate their respective supply chains, reducing the win-win situations. For instance, in the RF Front-end segment, Huawei has started to use domestic supplier Maxscend Technologies, which could squeeze market orders for US and Taiwanese suppliers. (Image credit: Huawei)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230927000252-260204?chdtv)

In the era of increasing electric vehicle penetration and automotive electrification, the future of cars resembles smartphones on wheels, demanding substantial computing power for advanced autonomous systems. As a result, future vehicles equipped with high-end self-driving systems are akin to mobile data centers. With the growth rate of the consumer electronics market slowing down, Self-Driving System-on-Chip (SoC) has become a crucial avenue for IC design firms to expand.

TrendForce Insights:

• Sluggish Growth in Consumer Electronics Market Spurs IC Design Firms to Focus on Self-Driving SoCs

With the deceleration in growth of mainstream consumer electronics products like smartphones and PCs, IC design firms are venturing into the automotive sector, with Self-Driving SoCs emerging as a key area of expansion. Key competitors in this space include NVIDIA, Mobileye, Qualcomm, Ambarella, and Horizon Robotics. Qualcomm, with solutions spanning smart cockpits, ADAS, and V2X, showcases its advantage in entering the automotive sector after years of success in the smartphone market. To avoid sustained dominance by international giants in the Chinese smart cockpit market, Chinese companies such as Siengine Technology, Navinfo, Autochips, Semidrive, Huawei, Rockchip, and Unisoc are actively entering this market.

• NVIDIA and Qualcomm Offer Broad Computing Capabilities, While Mobileye, Ambarella, and Horizon Robotics Bring Unique Strengths

NVIDIA and Qualcomm offer Self-Driving SoCs with broad computing capabilities. Initially targeting Level 4 and above autonomous driving, NVIDIA has adjusted its focus to Level 3 and below due to regulatory delays. Its high-computing SoCs cater to the computing needs of both smart cockpits and self-driving systems, achieving a “cockpit-and-drive integrated” approach. Qualcomm’s products cover computing requirements from Level 1 to 4. Intel’s Mobileye emphasizes low power consumption and integrates image sensing hardware and software. Both Ambarella and Mobileye possess core computer vision technologies, while Horizon Robotics provides highly open platforms to developers, offering software development tools (AIDI) and cloud-based AI training platforms. Horizon Robotics is also poised to benefit from China’s domestic production plans.

• NVIDIA’s Collaboration with MediaTek (Dimensity) is Crucial for Hardware-Software Integration

In May 2023, NVIDIA announced a partnership with MediaTek (Dimensity) to target the automotive market, with a focus on smart cockpits. NVIDIA concentrates on the main computing chips for in-vehicle computers and essential software, while MediaTek specializes in peripheral audiovisual entertainment and V2X communication systems. In Dimensity Auto, NVIDIA’s GPU and software are integrated, enabling the development of smart cockpit solutions. However, the collaborative car SoC development between MediaTek and NVIDIA is expected to launch by the end of 2025, with mass production slated for 2026-2027, necessitating a wait-and-see approach for the results of this collaboration.

Currently, high-end vehicles have software lines of code (SLOC) exceeding 100 million lines, more than double that of a PC. Vehicles with Level 5 self-driving systems in the future could potentially have over 1 billion lines of code. In the era of Software Defined Vehicles (SDV), hardware-software integration will be the key to competitiveness for manufacturers. NVIDIA, dominating the AI market with its CUDA platform, is well aware of this fact. Consequently, the results of NVIDIA’s collaboration with MediaTek (Dimensity) are highly anticipated.

(Photo credit: MediaTek)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, there’s good news from TSMC regarding its 3nm node. Sources within the supply chain have disclosed that the number of new chip designs using the 3nm process, known as “New Tape-Outs” (NTOs), has surged. It’s confirmed that customers including MediaTek, AMD, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm will follow in Apple’s footsteps for mass adoption of the 3nm process in the next year (2024) and the subsequent year. By the second half of next year, the monthly production capacity for the 3nm family, including N3E, will increase from the current approximately 60,000 wafers to 100,000 wafers.

According to publicly available information from TSMC, the company began volume production of its first 3nm process node, N3, in the second half of last year. The enhanced version of the 3nm process, N3E, started production in the latter half of this year. There will also be extensions to the 3nm process, including N3P, N3S, and N3X. This year, Apple’s high-end A17 Pro chip for its iPhones was based on the initial N3 process.

Both TSMC and MediaTek previously announced their collaboration, with MediaTek developing new Dimensity products using TSMC’s 3nm process. The design phase, known as “Tape Out,” has been successfully completed, and mass production is scheduled for next year. Industry reports indicate that aside from Apple and MediaTek, AMD, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm are also confirmed to adopt the N3 family of processes. Intel is also on the list, with mass production planned for the year after next.

TSMC’s first-generation 3nm process currently has a monthly production capacity of about 60,000 wafers, serving Apple as its primary customer. TSMC has initiated a program known as “Continuous Improvement Plan” (CIP) for the 3nm process, referred to as N3B in the industry. Supply chain sources suggest that N3B’s capacity will be integrated into subsequent extended process nodes, such as N3E, which is expected to attract more customers. It is estimated that the overall 3nm monthly production capacity will reach 100,000 wafers by the second half of next year.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Fueled by an AI-driven inventory stocking frenzy across the supply chain, TrendForce reveals that Q2 revenue for the top 10 global IC design powerhouses soared to US $38.1 billion, marking a 12.5% quarterly increase. In this rising tide, NVIDIA seized the crown, officially dethroning Qualcomm as the world’s premier IC design house, while the remainder of the leaderboard remained stable.

AI charges ahead, buoying IC design performance amid a seasonal stocking slump

NVIDIA is reaping the rewards of a global transformation. Bolstered by the global demand from CSPs, internet behemoths, and enterprises diving into generative AI and large language models, NVIDIA’s data center revenue skyrocketed by a whopping 105%. A deluge of shipments, including the likes of their advanced Hopper and Ampere architecture HGX systems and the high-performing InfinBand, played a pivotal role. Beyond that, both gaming and professional visualization sectors thrived under the allure of fresh product launches. Clocking a Q2 revenue of US$11.33 billion (a 68.3% surge), NVIDIA has vaulted over both Qualcomm and Broadcom to seize the IC design throne.

Qualcomm’s Q2 took a hit as the Android smartphone sector grappled with dwindling demand and Apple’s modem pre-purchases resulted in a subdued seasonal rhythm. Consequently, their revenue slid by 9.7%, rounding off at about US$7.17 billion. Broadcom, while benefiting from AI-ignited demand for high-end switches and routers, faced headwinds with revenue drops in server storage, broadband, and wireless. The result was a second-quarter revenue that essentially mirrored the previous quarter at around US$6.9 billion.

AMD’s Q2 performance plateaued at about $5.36 billion, weighed down by a slump in gaming GPU sales and its embedded segment operations. Conversely, MediaTek, after several quarters of inventory recalibration, witnessed a resurgence with components like TV SoCs and Wi-Fi stabilizing. The added impetus of urgent TV orders and escalating shipments for mobile phones, smart platforms, and power management ICs boosted MediaTek’s Q2 to a solid US$3.2 billion.

Marvell, though buoyed by AI deployments in data centers, faced headwinds with a decline in On-Premise Servers (enterprise private clouds). End-user demand remained frail, and with sectors like data centers, telecom infrastructure, and enterprise networking facing revenue drops, Marvell’s Q2 took a 1.4% hit, culminating at roughly $1.33 billion.

Taiwan’s IC design stalwart Novatek flourished as customers replenished TV-related inventories and ushered in novel products such as OLED DDI. Realtek, drawing strength from supply chain restocking of PC/NB-centric ICs, reported quarterly growths of 24.7% and 32.6%, respectively. Yet, without substantial signs of a holistic revival in end-sales and inventory restocking, growth in H2 seems set to face challenges.

Will Semiconductor secured the ninth spot with a Q2 revenue of $528 million, registering a modest decline of about 1.9%. Hot on its heels is the US-based power IC maestro, MPS, with its Q2 revenue tallying up to $441 million—a slip of approximately 2.2%.

Peering into Q3, while inventory levels across companies paint a rosier picture than H1, a pervasive end-user demand slump urges caution. However, a silver lining emerges with CSPs, internet titans, and private firms flocking to generative AI and large language models. As these high-value AI offerings gain traction, TrendForce projects that the top ten global IC design giants will continue their double-digit ascent in Q3, potentially reaching record-breaking figures.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

According to the news from ChinaTimes, Qualcomm announced on the 11th that it has reached a three-year agreement with Apple to supply 5G communication chips for Apple’s smartphones from 2024 to 2026. This also implies that Apple’s efforts to develop its own 5G modem chips may fall through, and the contract manufacturer TSMC stands to benefit the most.

Qualcomm did not disclose the value of this deal but mentioned that the terms of the agreement are similar to previous ones. Previous supply agreements have been highly profitable for Qualcomm but costly for Apple. According to UBS estimates from last month, Qualcomm’s sales of modem chips to Apple in the previous fiscal year amounted to $7.26 billion, accounting for approximately 16% of the company’s revenue.

This also highlights that Apple’s progress in developing modem chips may not be as expected, leading to a delay in their use in their flagship smartphones. Currently, Apple’s iPhones use 5G modem chips from Qualcomm.

Only a few companies worldwide have the capability to produce communication chips, including Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung. In 2019, Apple acquired Intel’s smartphone modem business for $1 billion, along with 2,200 employees and a series of patents. Intel faced difficulties in developing 5G modem chips, resulting in annual losses of around $1 billion.

The market expects Apple to gradually reduce its reliance on third-party chip suppliers. Qualcomm originally estimated that by 2023, their 5G chips would make up only 20% of iPhones. However, Qualcomm’s CFO stated in November of the previous year that “most” of Apple’s phones in 2023 would contain their chips.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230912000097-260202?chdtv)