DRAM Spot Market
Compared with last week, there are signs that the decline in DRAM spot prices is easing, but there has not been a noticeable increase in overall transaction volume. The spot market still has an abundant supply of DDR4 products mainly due to the influx of rebelled chips from decommissioned server DRAM modules. As a result, DDR4 products are under greater pressure to sell compared with DDR5 products. Currently, consumer 1Gx8 DDR4 chips are priced around US$0.88-0.9, while those from CXMT are priced around US$1. DDR4 chips from other suppliers are mostly being sold to customers in the industrial equipment segment, resulting in higher spot prices of around US$1.4. DDR5 products have relatively stable spot prices as they belong to the new generation and their supply has not been affected by recalled products. The average spot price of DDR5 2Gx8 chips from suppliers is now above US$4. In sum, DRAM spot prices are not showing signs of a rebound in the near future, mainly due to sluggish demand and an excess supply of DDR4 products. The average spot price of mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.41% from US$1.468 last week to US$1.462 this week.

NAND Spot Market
Peak season effects are yet to be seen from the demand end, where NAND Flash suppliers’ successive increase of quotations has not ramped up stocking dynamics as some module houses have long raised their inventory, and the retail market is experiencing a poor level of actual transactions without aggressive price negotiations. Prices are maintained at a consolidation this week. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 1.06% this week, arriving at US$1.436.

DRAM Spot Market
The situation in the spot market has not noticeably changed from last week and is still showing sluggish demand. Additionally, as mentioned in previous bulletins, there has been an influx of chips stripped from decommissioned server DRAM modules. These chips primarily come from the two major South Korean suppliers’ legacy processes and are reused in PC DRAM and consumer DRAM products after software modifications. In terms of performance, the reused chips from the Korean suppliers can reach a data rate of 3200MT/s. Overall, the presence of these reused chips continues to exert downward pressure on spot prices, particularly for DDR4 products. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.27% from US$1.497 last week to US$1.493 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

The spot market remains unaffected by the quarterly list prices of suppliers that have increased or leveled certain packaged dies, where sluggishness is seen lingering among overall demand under sporadic inquiries. In addition, concluded prices are still dropping slowly due to the lack of urgency among clients under sufficient stocks of the current spot market. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.14% this week, arriving at US$1.402.

DRAM Spot Market
Regarding recent developments in the spot market, there have been sporadic price upticks for low-priced DDR4 products. Meanwhile, prices of DDR5 products have kept falling due to the plentiful chip supply. Unlike the contract market, the spot market has been relatively unaffected by discussions about the possibility of price hikes, and spot trading as a whole is rather tepid. Furthermore, module houses were previously quite aggressive in stocking up, so they are now eager to sell as their inventories remain at a fairly high level. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.13% from US$1.517 last week to US$1.515 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
Spot market demand, different from that of the contract market, remains relatively sluggish recently, where concluded prices are still dropping due to sufficient stocks, despite a slight increment in price inquiries. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.413.

TrendForce’s latest research indicates that, as production cuts to DRAM and NAND Flash have not kept pace with weakening demand, the ASP of some products is expected to decline further in 2Q23. DRAM prices are projected to fall 13~18%; NAND Flash is expected to fall between 8~13%.

DRAM Spot Market

In the spot market, the trajectory of prices of DDR5 chips is going to be a highlight in the short term. Some sellers are now willing to lower quotes on DDR5 products that have been enjoying price hikes for many consecutive days. However, there have been few to no actual transactions, so TrendForce will continue to closely monitor changes in the prices of these products. As for spot prices of DDR3 and DDR4 products, they are still on a downward trajectory with no sign of easing. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 1.33% from US$1.575 last week to US$1.554 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
Suppliers continue to enlarge in production cuts. Despite the insignificant increase in spot market demand, the continuously shrinking output of small-capacity wafers, as well as the attempt at price revitalization among a number of suppliers, have pulled up demand and transactions of low-priced inventory within the spot market, which led to a small price increment. However, mainstream wafer prices have yet to suspend in decline. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.21% this week, arriving at US$1.427.

YMTC has officially notified a 3~5% price increase for NAND Flash in mid-May. However, the initial impact of the price hike is expected to be felt in the enterprise market, and it may take some time to reflect in the consumer spot market.

The semiconductor industry is in the midst of a correction period aimed at tackling inventory challenges, and the memory sector is feeling the impact. Major players in global memory manufacturing, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and YMTC, have recently disclosed substantial cuts in CAPEX, ranging from 45~50% starting from 4Q22. The most recent financial reports from Micron and Samsung further underscore the industry’s downward trend.

TrendForce highlights that YMTC’s decision to raise prices comes amidst market conditions marked by substantial oversupply in the second quarter. Despite Samsung’s efforts to curtail production, the positive effects of this reduction are not anticipated to materialize until the latter part of the year. Consequently, experts predict a more substantial decline in contract prices for the second quarter of 2023 than initially expected.

The market situation in 2Q23 is still oversupplied, leading to further price declines. Since October of last year, the market transaction price for wafers has been lower than the supplier’s cash cost due to selling pressure. Some suppliers used the opportunity when Samsung announced production cuts to raise the wafer price, which is likely why YMTC made this announcement. TrendForce predicts that as demand gradually recovers in the second half of the year, wafer prices will become more resilient. (Photo credit: YMTC LinkedIn)