Insights
Based on TrendForce’s weekly memory spot price trends released every Wednesday, due to the year-end holiday period, the spot market for DRAM and NAND Flash experiences light trading, and prices remain relatively stable. For details, please refer to the information below:
DRAM Spot Market:
Due to the year-end holiday period, the spot market has been quiet recently and showed no notable price fluctuations. The spot market is also relatively unaffected by smartphone brands’ restocking activities, so the overall sentiment is fairly conservative. Some spot sellers have begun to raise quotes for DRAM chips since January 2, but the demand quantities are insufficient to push up transaction prices. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 2.54% from US$1.773 last week to US$1.818 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market:
Transactions have been rather sluggish from the spot market amidst the holiday period, with no apparent price fluctuations. The spot market is not as affected by the recent stock-up demand for smartphones and SSD, and has been relatively conservative in general sentiment, where the lack of demand is insufficient in pulling up concluded prices even with the aggressive ramp up of wafer quotations among several sellers since the beginning of the year. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.29% in spot prices, arriving at US$3.117.
Insights
TrendForce releases the latest memory spot prices, with DRAM showing limited price increases due to sluggish trading momentum. On the other hand, NAND Flash is affected by inventory dynamics, leading to a gradual elimination of the premium for 512Gb. Details are as follows:
DRAM Spot Market:
In the spot market, the price decline caused by used chips extracted from decommissioned modules has shown signs of easing. The overall price trend is now relatively stable. With the winter holidays in North America and Europe, spot trading activities have slowed down. However, due to the market consensus that contract prices will rise in 1Q24, some buyers are stocking up, resulting in relatively insignificant increases in spot prices. The average spot price of mainstream DRAM chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.34% from US$1.747 last week to US$1.753 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market:
Several suppliers, having witnessed the price hike of wafers that lasted for a few consecutive months, are starting to release their stocks since this week. The previous destitution in product availability has thus been slight remedied. 512Gb is currently sitting on about US$3.2, and is approaching to its contract price under a slow dissipation in premium, with the focus of subsequent observations being whether purchase dynamics would further deteriorate. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 1.72% this week, arriving at US$3.128.
Insights
Compared to last week, there is no notable change in DRAM spot price. It is relatively stable in this week. On NAND Flash, there was a 20%+ growth in NAND Flash wafer contract prices last month, making buyers stock and sellers negotiate the price. It leads a surge in the NAND flash wafer spot price in this week.
DRAM Spot Market
The spot market has not changed noticeably from the previous week, and prices are starting to weaken as more used DDR4 chips are released into the market. Kingston has yet to adjust its module prices, so other module houses are hesitant to raise their prices as well. On the whole, the spot market remains fairly quiet in terms of trading activities, and the general price trend there is relatively flat. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.99% from US$1.712 last week to US$1.729 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market
Overall retail sales of NAND Flash have yet to surpass performance of past years, though the growth of more than 20% in contract prices for Flash wafers during November that stimulated aggressive stocking activities among buyers had led to a more adamant approach in sellers’ negotiations, and had prompted 512Gb to surpass US$3 on a continual basis. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 5.35% this week, arriving at US$3.015.
Insights
In the spot market, DRAM prices are showing a slight divergence from the contract market. Spot demand has decreased, preventing further price increases for DRAM chips. Meanwhile, NAND Flash prices have been rising due to ongoing wafer shortage. However, spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies remain stable due to uncertain demand visibility.
DRAM Spot Market
The price trend of the spot market diverges slightly from that of the contract market. Recently, demand has dropped in the spot market. Even though DRAM suppliers and module houses have been passive in offering price concessions, there also has been no noticeable increase in demand. Furthermore, there is growing sentiment in the spot market that waiting for further developments is the best option. Hence, spot prices of DRAM chips have not been able to rise further. As for modules, their spot prices have experienced limited fluctuations because Kingston, as the leading module house, is unwilling to raise quotes due to its high inventory level. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 1.69% from US$1.600 last week to US$1.627 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market
The spot market, due to continuous shortages in recent wafer supply, has been experiencing rising prices under a shrinking volume, while spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies have been oscillating narrowly in quotations on account of the persistently constrained level of visibility in demand. Follow ups on market prices can still be seen among products involved in production cuts of suppliers, whereas other products are fluctuating according to market demand. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 6.94% this week, arriving at US$2.464.
In-Depth Analyses
DRAM Spot Market
In the spot market, prices have been rising noticeably in the recent period, and demand has also rebounded marginally. Also, because the supply of rebelled used chips has shrunk slightly, price hikes have been most significant for chips belonging to the bottom of the price range. On the other hand, spot buyers have become somewhat hesitant in the past two or so days because the price hikes are too rapid. They are now less willing to accept higher prices than before. Since the overall demand for DRAM products has yet to turn around, spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.13% from US$1.498 last week to US$1.500 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market
A price increase is seen among finished products, including memory cards, USB flash drives, and eMMC, from the spot market recently due to the diminished supply of wafers, which resulted in a significant rebound in spot quotations for NAND Flash. With that being said, buyers are not all that willing to follow up with the corresponding prices that had a significant jump within a short period and have slightly stagnated in procurement. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed at 3.96% this week, arriving at US$1.757.