Recently, major memory manufacturers such as Micron, Samsung, and Western Digital have all announced price hikes. Industry sources indicate that since 1Q24, memory manufacturers stay steadfastly in controlling supply and raising prices. Coupled with the impact of the recent earthquake in Taiwan, the supply-demand imbalance has further driven up memory prices.

However, it’s worth noting that according to industry experts, the primary driving force behind the recent price increases in the memory market is still from manufacturers. As to the demand side, significant growth are mainly seen in industrial control needs, AI large models, and automotive intelligentization, while other fields have not yet seen obvious growth.

Regarding the impact of the 403 earthquake, TrendForce expects the influence on the output bit of DRAM in 2Q24 to remain within 1%. Specifically, due to Micron’s earthquake-related damages being more concentrated in advanced processes, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility of Micron’s Server DRAM final transaction prices increasing. The subsequent price trends still require observation.

• Has Micron Increased Prices by More Than 20% in Q2?

On April 9th, Taiwanese media reported that Micron has proposed price increases of over 20% for its products in Q2 to most customers, with price negotiations still ongoing.

It is reported that after the earthquake on April 3, Micron temporarily suspended the announcement of DRAM product quotation for the second quarter.

Currently, TrendForce maintains its previous expectations for the second-quarter contract price of Mobile DRAM, with an increase of about 3-8% QoQ. As for Server DRAM, due to the earthquake-related damages to Micron being more concentrated in advanced processes, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility of Micron’s Server DRAM final transaction prices increasing, and the subsequent price trends still require observation. In regard to HBM, since most of Micron’s HBM 1beta production and TSV lines are located in Hiroshima, Japan, supply or price remain unchanged.

In the spot market, some module manufacturers like Kingston and ADATA have restarted quoting prices, but no price increase has been implemented yet. TrendForce believes that the earthquake’s impact on pushing up prices is limited.

Overall, due to the relatively low inventory of DDR3, there is still room for price increases. Whereas, DDR4 and DDR5 inventory is comparatively sufficient, coupled with weak demand, which are expected bring the situation of small consecutive price increases caused by the earthquake to return back to normal within a few days.

• Western Digital Continuously Increases NAND Flash and HDD Prices

On April 8, Western Digital confirmed for the first time that there is a shortage of supply for both HDD and SSD, and issued formal customer letters notifying of price adjustments for NAND Flash and hard drive products. Western Digital stated that the demand for flash memory and hard drive products has exceeded expectations, leading to supply shortages. Prices for these products will continue to be adjusted this quarter, with some adjustments taking immediate effect.

Western Digital acknowledged that it will perform the frequent price reviewing and adjust it accordingly. Furthermore, Western Digital also stated that its ability to handle orders outside of the plan is quite limited, so any order changes need to be notified in advance.

• Samsung Raises Prices of Enterprise SSD?

In the past two weeks, rumor has it that enterprise SSD fell into a supply shortage. According to industry sources, due to the optimistic outlook for SSD to become a part of AI in the future, paired with recent supply tensions, their prices have started to rise. Samsung is rumored to increase prices for enterprise SSD by 20-25% in 2Q24, reversing the downward trend seen in 2023.

Reportedly, Samsung initially planned to raise prices by about 15% compared to the previous quarter, but higher-than-expected demand led Samsung to expand the price hike. Samsung’s enterprise SSD accounts for approximately half of the market share, thus exerting a significant influence on pricing decisions.

A study by TrendForce on March 7 shows that in 4Q23, Samsung ranked first globally in the Enterprise SSD market with a market share of 41.7%, followed by SK Hynix (33.2%), Micron (10.8%), Kioxia (9.4%), and Western Digital (4.9%).

• TrendForce Released Forecasts for DRAM and NAND Flash Contract Prices for 2Q24

In terms of overall price trends, TrendForce estimates that although the inventory of DRAM suppliers has decreased, it has not yet returned to a healthy level. Furthermore, as they gradually shake of the loss situation, suppliers are expected to further increase their capacity utilization rates.

However, due to the lackluster overall demand outlook for this year and the large price increases by suppliers since 4Q23, the momentum for inventory replenishment is expected to weaken. Therefore, TrendForce anticipates that the quarterly increase in DRAM contract prices in the second quarter will converge to 3-8%.

Regarding NAND Flash, TrendForce stated that, except for Kioxia and Western Digital, which have been increasing their capacity utilization rates since 1Q24, other suppliers are generally maintaining a low production strategy.

Although the procurement volume of NAND Flash in 2Q24 has declined slightly compared to 1Q24, the overall market climate continues to be influenced by reduced supplier inventory and the impact of production cuts. Consequently, TrendForce forecasts a strong increase of around 13-18% in NAND Flash contract prices in 2Q24.

Read more

• [Insights] The Spot Price of DRAM Continues to Decline, Weak Trading Volume for NAND Flash
• [Insights] DRAM and NAND Flash Spot Prices Drop as Demand Weakens

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Memory manufacturer Micron Technology stated on April 11 that the earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 has impacted its DRAM supply, estimated to be between 4-6% (mid-single digit percentage).

Micron emphasized in an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the earthquake did not cause permanent damage to its facilities, infrastructure, or equipment, and will not have a long-term effect on DRAM supply.

Micron noted that as of now, DRAM production post-earthquake has not fully recovered, but progress in facility restoration is promising thanks to efforts by the Taiwan team.

In February this year, Micron announced the commencement of mass production of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, designed for use in NVIDIA’s H200 GPU for AI applications.

In March, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra indicated that the company’s HBM chips earmarked for AI applications are sold out for 2024, with much of the 2025 supply already allocated.

Micron previously described HBM chips as utilizing stacked DRAM technology. The company did not specify whether the HBM supply would be affected by the earthquake.

Per a previous TrendForce press release, the three major original HBM manufacturers held market shares as follows in 2023: SK Hynix and Samsung were both around 47.5%, while Micron stood at roughly 5%.

As per Micron’s previous report, regarding growth outlooks for various end markets in 2024, the annual growth rate for the data center industry has been revised upward from mid-single digits to mid-to-high single digits, while the PC industry’s annual growth rate remains at low to mid-single digits. AI PCs are expected to capture a certain market share in 2025. The annual growth rate for the mobile phone industry has been adjusted upward from modest growth to low to mid-single digits.

Read more

• [News] Micron’s Financial Report Reveals High Demand for HBM in 2025, Capacity Nears Full Allocation
• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200

(Photo credit: Micron)

Recently, South Korean media Alphabiz reported that Samsung may exclusively supply 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA.

The report indicates NVIDIA is set to commence large-scale purchases of Samsung Electronics’ 12-layer HBM3e as early as September, who will exclusively provide the 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, as per Alphabiz reported, left his signature “Jensen Approved” on a physical 12-layer HBM3e product from Samsung Electronics at GTC 2024, which seems to suggest NVIDIA’s recognition of Samsung’s HBM3e product.

HBM is characterized by its high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption. With the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the acceleration of AI large-scale model applications has driven the continuous growth of demand in high-performance memory market.

According to TrendForce’s data, HBM market value accounted for approximately 8.4% of the overall DRAM industry in 2023, and this percentage is projected to expand to 20.1% by the end of 2024.

Senior Vice President Avril Wu notes that by the end of 2024, the DRAM industry is expected to allocate approximately 250K/m (14%) of total capacity to producing HBM TSV, with an estimated annual supply bit growth of around 260%.

HBM3e: Three Major Original Manufacturers Kick off Fierce Rivalry

Following the debut of the world’s first TSV HBM product in 2014, HBM memory technology has now iterated to HBM3e after nearly 10 years of development.

From the perspective of original manufacturers, competition in the HBM3e market primarily revolves around Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. It is reported that these three major manufacturers already provided 8-hi (24GB) samples in late July, mid-August, and early October 2023, respectively. It is worth noting that this year, they have kicked off fierce competition in the HBM3e market by introducing latest products.

On February 27th, Samsung announced the launch of its first 12-layer stacked HBM3e DRAM–HBM3e 12H, which marks Samsung’s largest-capacity HBM product to date, boasting a capacity of up to 36GB. Samsung stated that it has begun offering samples of the HBM3e 12H to customers and anticipates starting mass production in the second half of this year.

In early March, Micron announced that it had commenced mass production of its HBM3e solution. The company stated that the NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPU will adopt Micron’s 8-layer stacked HBM3e memory with 24GB capacity and shipments are set to begin in the second quarter of 2024.

On March 19th, SK Hynix announced the successful large-scale production of its new ultra-high-performance memory product, HBM3e, designed for AI applications. This achievement symbolizes the world’s first supply of DRAM’s highest-performance HBM3e in existence to customers.

A previous report from TrendForce has indicated that, starting in 2024, the market’s attention will shift from HBM3 to HBM3e, with expectations for a gradual ramp-up in production through the second half of the year, positioning HBM3e as the new mainstream in the HBM market.

TrendForce reports that SK hynix led the way with its HBM3e validation in the first quarter, closely followed by Micron, which plans to start distributing its HBM3e products toward the end of the first quarter, in alignment with NVIDIA’s planned H200 deployment by the end of the second quarter.

Samsung, slightly behind in sample submissions, is expected to complete its HBM3e validation by the end of the first quarter, with shipments rolling out in the second quarter. With Samsung having already made significant strides in HBM3 and its HBM3e validation expected to be completed soon, the company is poised to significantly narrow the market share gap with SK Hynix by the end of the year, reshaping the competitive dynamics in the HBM market.

Read more

• HBM3 Initially Exclusively Supplied by SK Hynix, Samsung Rallies Fast After AMD Validation, Says TrendForce
• [News] SK Hynix Reportedly Plans to Invest USD 4 Billion in Advanced Packaging Fab in Indiana

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Micron, the major memory manufacturer in the United States, has benefited from AI demand, turning losses into profits last quarter (ending in February) and issuing optimistic financial forecasts.

During its earnings call on March 20th, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated that the company’s HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity for this year has been fully allocated, with most of next year’s capacity already booked. HBM products are expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Micron in the current fiscal year.

Per a report from Washington Post, Micron expects revenue for the current quarter (ending in May) to be between USD 6.4 billion and USD 6.8 billion, with a midpoint of USD 6.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of USD 6 billion.

Last quarter, Micron’s revenue surged 58% year-on-year to USD 5.82 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s expectation of USD 5.35 billion. The company posted a net profit of USD 790 million last quarter, a turnaround from a loss of USD 2.3 billion in the same period last year. Excluding one-time charges, Micron’s EPS reached USD 0.42 last quarter. Mehrotra reportedly attributed Micron’s return to profitability last quarter to the company’s efforts in pricing, product, and operational costs.

Over the past year, memory manufacturers have reduced production, coupled with the explosive growth of the AI industry, which has led to a surge in demand for NVIDIA AI processors, benefiting upstream memory manufacturers.

Mehrotra stated, “We believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multiyear opportunity enabled by AI.”

The projected growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash bit demand in 2024 are close to 15% and in the mid-teens, respectively. However, the supply growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash bits in 2024 are both lower than the demand growth rates.

Micron utilizes 176 and 232-layer processes for over 90% of its NAND Flash production. As for HBM3e, it is expected to contribute to revenue starting from the second quarter.

Per a previous TrendForce press release, the three major original HBM manufacturers held market shares as follows in 2023: SK Hynix and Samsung were both around 46-49%, while Micron stood at roughly 4-6%.

In terms of capital expenditures, the company maintains an amount of USD 7.5 to USD 8 billion (taking into account U.S. government subsidies), primarily allocated for enhancing HBM-related capacity.

Micron stated that due to the more complex packaging of HBM, it consumes three times the DRAM capacity of DDR5, indirectly constraining the capacity for non-HBM products, thereby improving overall DRAM market supply.

As per Micron’s report, regarding growth outlooks for various end markets in 2024, the annual growth rate for the data center industry has been revised upward from mid-single digits to mid-to-high single digits, while the PC industry’s annual growth rate remains at low to mid-single digits. AI PCs are expected to capture a certain market share in 2025. The annual growth rate for the mobile phone industry has been adjusted upward from modest growth to low to mid-single digits.

Read more

• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200
• [News] Three-way Contest for HBM Dominance, Uncertainties Surrounding China’s Supply Chain Involvement

(Photo credit: Micron)

According to a report from the South Korean newspaper “Korea Joongang Daily,” following Micron’s initiation of mass production of the latest high-bandwidth memory HBM3e in February 2024, it has recently secured an order from NVIDIA for the H200 AI GPU. It is understood that NVIDIA’s upcoming H200 processor will utilize the latest HBM3e, which are more powerful than the HBM3 used in the H100 processor.

The same report further indicates that Micron secured the H200 order due to its adoption of 1b nanometer technology in its HBM3e, which is equivalent to the 12-nanometer technology used by SK Hynix in producing HBM. In contrast, Samsung Electronics currently employs 1a nanometer technology, which is equivalent to 14-nanometer technology, reportedly lagging behind Micron and SK Hynix.

The report from Commercial Times indicates that Micron’s ability to secure the NVIDIA order for H200 is attributed to the chip’s outstanding performance, energy efficiency, and seamless scalability.

As per a previous report from TrendForce, starting in 2024, the market’s attention will shift from HBM3 to HBM3e, with expectations for a gradual ramp-up in production through the second half of the year, positioning HBM3e as the new mainstream in the HBM market.

TrendForce reports that SK Hynix led the way with its HBM3e validation in the first quarter, closely followed by Micron, which plans to start distributing its HBM3e products toward the end of the first quarter, in alignment with NVIDIA’s planned H200 deployment by the end of the second quarter.

Samsung, slightly behind in sample submissions, is expected to complete its HBM3e validation by the end of the first quarter, with shipments rolling out in the second quarter. With Samsung having already made significant strides in HBM3 and its HBM3e validation expected to be completed soon, the company is poised to significantly narrow the market share gap with SK Hynix by the end of the year, reshaping the competitive dynamics in the HBM market.

Read more

• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200
• [News] H200 Unveiled: NVIDIA Integrates HBM3e for Enhanced AI Performance

(Photo credit: Micron)