Global memory giants continue to reduce production, coupled with the situation where market demand is increasing due to the rise in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications, as well as inventory replenishment from the smartphone market. This combination is driving a continuous increase in memory prices, especially the astonishing surge in NAND Flash.

According to a report from TechNews, there are once again rumors in the market today that the upward trend in DRAM prices is resurfacing. This includes plans from both Samsung and Micron to implement a price increase ranging from 15% to 20% in the first quarter of 2024.

Currently, the market anticipates tight DRAM supply in 2024 due to the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, along with a gradual recovery in the smartphone and PC markets. As the contract price negotiation for the first quarter is underway, industry sources reveal that memory manufacturers have begun adjusting DRAM prices since January, urging customers to plan for future usage demands.

There are reports in the market that Samsung recently announced that DRAM prices will increase by at least 15% starting in the first quarter of 2024. While there is no clear indication of the NAND Flash memory price hike at the moment, it is expected to continue to rise. The upward trend in DRAM prices is expected to persist until the end of 2024.

Apart from Samsung, Micron, with a modest 2-3% increase in DRAM prices in December 2023, lower than the 10% increase in 3D TLC NAND, is reportedly considering a DRAM price hike of around 15-20%.

Regarding the price trend of DRAM in the first quarter of 2024, TrendForce currently maintains a forecast of a seasonally increased average of 13-18%, with the highest increase observed in the mobile DRAM category, while server DRAM appears relatively conservative. According to TrendForce’s observation, due to the uncertain demand outlook for the entire year 2024, memory manufacturers believe that a continued reduction in production is necessary to maintain the supply-demand balance in the memory industry.

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• Market Anticipates a 50% Price Surge for NAND Flash in Short-Term

(Image: Samsung )

After a rebound from the decline in NAND prices, the current quotations still show a gap from reaching the breakeven point for suppliers such as Samsung, Kioxia, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Major domestic players in the NAND Flash industry indicate that NAND Flash suppliers, driven by the goal of profitability, will continue to aggressively raise prices. It is anticipated that prices will need to increase by over 40% once again for major manufacturers to break even. To achieve profitability, future price hikes are expected to be at least 50% or even higher, according to Economic Daily News.

Looking at the global NAND Flash market share in 3Q23, according to a report from TrendForce, Samsung holds the leading position with a market share of 31.4%. The second position is held by the SK group, with a market share of 20.2%, followed by the U.S.-based Western Digital at third place with a market share of 16.9%. The Japanese company, Kioxia ranks fourth with a market share of approximately 14.5%.

The industry indicates that due to the lower profitability of NAND Flash compared to DRAM, international giants are actively reducing NAND Flash production.

Taking Samsung as an example, since September of this year, the reduction in NAND chip production has expanded to 50% of total capacity, focusing on products with stacked layers up to 128 layers. The goal is to accelerate destocking and stabilize prices, with plans to gradually increase prices in 2024.

TrendForce has indicated that following Samsung’s expansion of the production reduction to 50%, other suppliers are also maintaining a restrained wafer allocation strategy. After more than half a year of production reduction in some processes and capacities, there is a structural supply shortage, providing an advantage for chip manufacturers in price control. Observing the market in the fourth quarter, there are almost no low-priced sources available for purchase. However, buyers still tend to maintain high inventory levels and continue purchasing.

Industry sources revealed that the NAND chip prices had plummeted too deeply before. Although the quarterly increase in contract prices seems substantial, there is still a distance for chip manufacturers to achieve a turnaround. It is expected that prices need to increase by another 40% to allow suppliers to cross the breakeven point. Therefore, prices are expected to be quite strong in the coming quarters.

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• NAND Flash Industry Revenue Grows 2.9% in 3Q23, Expected to Surge Over 20% in Q4, Says TrendForce
• [Insights] Memory Spot Price Update: Modest DRAM Increase; NAND Flash 512Gb Premium Fades

(Photo credit: Samsung)

As competition in the semiconductor industry intensifies, countries worldwide are implementing industrial policies to attract domestic and foreign investments. Japan, in particular, has introduced substantial subsidies to entice industry players to invest and establish facilities.

According to the report from South Korean “Dong-a Ilbo,” compared to other nations, South Korea’s semiconductor industry lacks sufficient subsidies, and there are concerns that Japan may surpass South Korea within the next decade.

Given the high cost of advanced semiconductor facility equipment and relatively higher local labor and other costs in Japan compared to other Asian countries, semiconductor companies are making substantial investments, often in the trillions of yen, to set up facilities in Japan.

In an effort to attract foreign companies to establish facilities in Japan, the Japanese government not only promotes the capabilities of numerous domestic semiconductor upstream suppliers to meet supply chain demands but also provides subsidies to alleviate the burden on industry players, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of products manufactured in Japan.

Taking memory giant Micron as an example, reportedly, Micron’s DRAM plant being constructed in Hiroshima, Japan, has received a 39% subsidy from the Japanese government for the construction cost. This subsidy has enhanced its cost competitiveness by 5% to 7%.

With substantial assistance from the Japanese government, there is a potential for Micron to narrow the market share gap with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the future.

In recent years, TSMC has also chosen to establish a plant in Kumamoto, Japan, under the active solicitation of the Japanese government. In June of the previous year, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry announced that TSMC, along with Sony and Denso, jointly investing in Kumamoto Fab 1, could receive a maximum subsidy of JPY 476 billion (approximately USD 3.34 billion), equivalent to half of the construction cost.

The head of the Japanese Semiconductor Strategic Promotion Council, Akira Amari, previously mentioned that the Japanese government would provide one-third of the construction cost as a subsidy for TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2.

However, in November of this year, the Japanese Cabinet approved a semiconductor subsidy plan of nearly JPY 2 trillion, deciding to grant a subsidy of JPY 900 billion to TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2, exceeding one-third of the construction cost.

As per TrendForce’s report, Japan is also actively supporting local company Rapidus with a goal of reaching the most advanced 2 nm process. They aim to create a semiconductor cluster in Hokkaido and are offering subsidies to foreign companies, including Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM) and PSMC’s Sendai plant (JSMC).

This dual-pronged approach by the Japanese government aims to attract both domestic and foreign semiconductor industry investments in Japan.

While the South Korean parliament expanded tax incentives for semiconductor facility investment in the chip law passed in March of this year, it did not provide direct cash subsidies, raising concerns among industry professionals about the potential overtaking of the South Korean semiconductor industry by Japan.

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• [News] Japanese Gov’t Grants TSMC 900B Yen, Kumamoto Fab 2 Announcement Soon
• Japan Flexes Its Advantages in Semiconductor Upstream Equipment and Raw Materials, and Unveils Strategic Progress of Key Players in Kyushu, Tohoku, and Hokkaido, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: TSMC)

After more than two years of stagnation in the memory market, which was exacerbated by production cuts from major players like Samsung and Micron earlier this year, the issue of overstock has finally seen improvement.

As per Nikkei’s report, this has driven an increase in prices for DRAM, marking the first such occurrence in nearly two and a half years. Observers are optimistic that the memory market will hit bottom this year, with a recovery and growth expected in 2024.

According to TrendForce’s data, the contract price for the DDR4 8GB, considered a benchmark product for DRAM, reached USD 1.50 in October, a 15.4% increase from September and the first increase since July 2021. The contract price for the same product continued to rise in November by 10%, reaching USD 1.65.

In addition to the DDR4 8GB product, other specifications of DRAM contract prices generally experienced monthly increases of around 10% in October this year. Generally, memory contract prices are determined collaboratively by chip suppliers and corporate customers, and an increase in contract prices signifies an advantage for suppliers.

There are signs of a bottoming out and rebound in the DRAM market in the third quarter of this year. TrendForce indicated that the global DRAM market’s revenue increased by 18% compared to the previous quarter, reaching USD 13.48 billion.

This growth, reportedly, is primarily attributed to production cuts by major suppliers throughout the year, gradually restoring balance to the market supply and demand.

The report also reflects on the pandemic period, noting that the global surge in remote work initially led to a sharp increase in demand for memory. However, as the pandemic gradually subsided in 2021, market demand cooled.

Additionally, persistent challenges such as high inflation and interest rates impacting consumer spending weakened demand for PCs and various consumer electronic devices. This, in turn, led to global oversupply in memory, causing prices to decline consistently.

Major DRAM manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, have been reducing production since the beginning of this year, and they have recently managed to reverse the downturn.

Samsung reported a 16% revenue growth in the third quarter, while SK Hynix achieved an impressive growth rate of 34.4%. Despite a decline in average selling prices, Micron’s third-quarter chip shipment growth contributed to an overall revenue growth of 4.2%.

Moreover, the global NAND Flash market saw a 2.9% sequential increase in revenue in the third quarter, and a growth rate of 20% is anticipated for the fourth quarter, according to TrendForce’s latest research.

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• [Insights] Due to Year-End Sluggish Demand, Spot Prices Hover for DRAM and NAND Flash
• [News] After Memory Price Hike, Shortages Emerge in Some Products?

(Photo credit: Samsung)

As one of the key cases in the US-China tech war, American memory giant Micron Technology had mend relations with China. Recently, Micron said a global settlement agreement with state-backed competitor Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit (JHICC) concerning intellectual property theft lawsuits.

According to Bloomberg’s report, on December 24th, Micron has indicated that it has reached a global settlement agreement with Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. A Micron spokesperson stated in an email, “The two companies will each globally dismiss their complaints against the other party and end all lawsuits between them.” However, no further information or details were provided.

In March of this year, the Cyberspace Administration of China conducted a cybersecurity review of Micron products, and in May, it cited cybersecurity concerns as the reason for prohibiting Chinese operators of “critical infrastructure” from using Micron’s chips.

Micron stated that the Chinese restrictions have affected approximately half of its sales related to Chinese customers. Accordingly, Micron derives about a quarter of its global revenue from China and Hong Kong.

Reportedly, industry insiders believe that following the settlement between the two parties, it is not anticipated to have a significant impact on the upward trend of memory prices.

Appeared to have attempted to pacify Beijing, Micron announced in June an increased investment in China, planning to invest over CNY 4.3 billion in the next few years in its packaging and testing facility located in Xi’an, China.

Micron has decided to acquire the packaging equipment of Powertech Semiconductor (Xi’an), planning to construct new facilities at the Micron Xi’an plant and introduce state-of-the-art and high-performance packaging and testing equipment.

In 2017, Micron filed a lawsuit in the United States against Fujian Jinhua and its Taiwanese partner United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), accusing these two companies of stealing trade secrets related to Micron’s memory.

A year later, as the U.S. Department of Justice intensified actions against China in economic espionage cases, Fujian Jinhua and UMC were charged with conspiring to steal Micron’s trade secrets. The Trump administration at the time placed Fujian Jinhua on the so-called Entity List, prohibiting U.S. component sales to this Chinese DRAM maker.

In 2021, UMC and Micron announced a settlement. UMC admitted guilt in an agreement with U.S. prosecutors, and the prosecution agreed to drop the charges of economic espionage and conspiracy.

Nevertheless, the case against Fujian Jinhua by the US Department of Justice remains pending.

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• [News] Memory Giants Samsung & Micron Actively Embrace DDR5 and HBM as Favorable Choices

(Photo credit: Micron)