As HBM has become a key battlefield for memory giants amid the AI wave, NAND chips with more layers, which are also ideal for high-capacity solid-state drives (SSDs) used in AI data centers, are in great demand as well. According to the latest report by the Korea Economic Daily, Samsung aims to introduce the 400-layer vertical NAND by 2026 to capture a leading position in the booming AI-driven storage market.

According to the Korean media outlet, following Samsung’s current mass production of its 286-layer V9 NAND flash chips, the company’s Device Solutions division is targeting the production of vertical NAND with a minimum of 400 stacked layers as early as 2026.

Samsung’s major rival, SK hynix, is also developing 400-layer NAND, aiming to get the technology ready for mass production by the end of 2025, according to a report by etnews in August. The current HBM leader reportedly eyes the full-scale production for the 400-layer NAND to begin in the first half of 2026, which is roughly similar to Samsung’s timetable.

Samsung Develops “Dream NAND for AI” to Boost Density Per Unit Area by 1.6 Times

The report by the Korea Economic Daily notes that in conventional NAND chips, memory cells are stacked above the peripheral circuitry, which acts as the chip’s brain. However, stacking beyond 300 layers has frequently caused damage to the peripheral.

Back in 2013, Samsung was the industry’s first to introduce V NAND chips with vertically stacked storage cells to maximize capacity, the report notes.

Now, to address the issue occurred, Samsung is reportedly developing its advanced 10th-generation V NAND (V10), in which it intends to use an innovative bonding technology where cells and the peripheral circuitry are manufactured separately on distinct wafers before being bonded together.

Named by Samsung as bonding vertical NAND Flash or BV NAND, the technology is also praised by Samsung as the “dream NAND for AI,” stating that it will boost bit density per unit area by 1.6 times, according to the Korea Economic Daily.

This method is expected to support “ultra-high” NAND stacks by offering substantial storage capacity and efficient heat dissipation, which is ideal for SSDs used in AI data centers.

Roadmap for 1,000-layer NAND Revealed

Samsung is indeed ambitious as it also reveals the long-term roadmap for NANDs with more layers. According to the Korea Economic Daily, it plans to advance its stacking technology with the launch of V11 NAND in 2027, featuring a 50% increase in data input and output speed. Moreover, executives cited by the report state that the memory giant also aims to develop NAND with over 1,000 layers by 2030.

According to TrendForce’s latest research, in the second quarter of 2024, Samsung maintained its global leadership in the NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market share, up 0.2% from the previous quarter. SK Group followed with a 22.1% share, down 0.1%. Other key players include Kioxia (13.8%), Micron (11.8%), and Western Digital (10.5%).

Read more

• [News] SK hynix Reportedly Develops NAND over 400 Layers, Eyeing Mass Production Ready by 2025
• [News] Outpacing Samsung or the End of Race? Kioxia Aims 1000-layer NAND by 2027

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, spot prices for DDR5 products have finally stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes. As for NAND flash, the story seems to be different as the wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Regarding DDR5 products, spot prices have stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes, and there have also been occasional small price hikes in spot transactions. As for DDR4 products, spot prices show signs of stabilization but have experienced the same kind of increase as DDR5. Overall, demand remains weak for consumer products, suggesting further price drops are possible. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 0.31% from US$1.911 last week to US$1.905 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The reduction of inventory has become the priority for the spot market that is currently experiencing sluggishness in demand and purchase sentiment, seeing how truncations have been frequently happening among retail and channel markets, where several module houses of a larger scale are even selling their client SSD at a loss just to get rid of existing inventory. This wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Spot market prices are thus expected to remain on the downward trajectory. 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.08% this week, arriving at US$2.493.

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, trading volumes in the spot market continues to fall during China’s National Day Golden Week, while a rebound is unlikely before the year’s end. As for NAND flash, buyers’ reluctance towards procurement has further exacerbated the excessive provision within the market. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

It is now China’s National Day Golden Week, so trading volumes in the spot market continues to fall. Furthermore, some module houses are keen to lower their inventory levels, thus pushing spot prices to go down further. The supply-demand dynamics of the spot market remains unchanged, and a rebound is unlikely before the year’s end. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has dropped by 0.26% from US$1.934 last week to US$1.929 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The spot market was seen with sluggishness in transactions as buyers had not raised their willingness in stocking amidst the National Day holiday of China. Several suppliers are obviously selling their products at lower unit prices this week as sales pressure continues to envelop the entire market, which however has yet to alleviate the overall status, where buyers’ reluctance towards procurement has only further exacerbated the excessive provision within the market. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.58% this week, arriving at US$2.595.

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, with China’s upcoming National Day holiday and the lack of restocking momentum, the spot market is expected to become quieter in the next two weeks, causing the spot prices continue to slide. As for NAND flash, another wave of inventory reduction has surfaced among module houses. Combined with the relatively high inventory of YMTC, the spot market is surrounded by pressure of sales. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

The previously mentioned influx of reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips (from decommissioned modules) is still unabated, and most major module houses are compelled to cut prices due to inventory pressure. With China’s upcoming National Day holiday and the lack of restocking momentum in the earlier period, the spot market is expected to become quieter in the next two weeks. Therefore, spot prices will continue to slide as well. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 1.28% from US$ 1.959 last week to US$1.934 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Another wave of inventory reduction has surfaced among module houses amidst the supposedly peak season, followed by an ongoing decrement of prices, where most sellers equipped with ample stocks are looking to maintain their operations by exchanging their inventory with cash. All the while, YMTC has managed to drop in inventory by rushing to ship out its products to some major module houses at lower prices also due to the pressure aroused by excessive inventory. The spot market is thus lingering amidst pressure of sales. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 3.69% this week, arriving at US$2.610.

Is the winter really coming for the memory sector? Despite an earlier report by Morgan Stanley warning of an AI bubble, U.S. memory giant Micron reveals a financial guidance that beats market expectations, projecting its fiscal first-quarter revenue to reach USD 8.7 billion, higher than an average analyst estimate of USD 8.32 billion, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, Micron expects a significant increase in gross margin to around 39.5%, and an adjusted earnings of USD 1.74 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of USD 1.65, according to Reuters.

The growth momentum will mainly rely on the soaring demand for HBM, driven by AI. Earlier in June, Micron noted that its HBM chips have been fully booked for 2024 and 2025.

In terms of the outlook for the overall HBM market, Micron’s view evidently contradicts with that of Morgan Stanley, as it eyes the HBM total available market (TAM) to grow from approximately USD 4 billion in 2023 to over USD 25 billion in 2025.

And the company is making strides in its progress in HBM in the following year. According to its press release, Micron expects its HBM, high-capacity D5 and LP5 solutions, and data center SSD products to deliver multiple billions of dollars in revenue in fiscal 2025.

The U.S. memory giant also expects its HBM market share to commensurate with the company’s overall DRAM market share sometime in 2025.

According to TrendForce, Micron ranked third in DRAM revenue in Q2, 2024, with a market share of 19.6%, after Samsung’s 42.9% and SK hynix’s 34.5%, respectively.

Regarding the latest development on HBM, after its 8-hi HBM3E entered mass production in February, Micron confirms that it has started shipments of production-capable HBM3E 12-hi 36GB units to key industry partners to enable qualifications across the AI ecosystem, stating that its HBM3E 12-hi 36GB delivers 20% lower power consumption than its competitors’ HBM3E 8-hi 24GB solutions while providing 50% higher DRAM capacity.

The company expects to ramp its 12-hi HBM3E in early 2025 and increase the 12-hi mix in the overall shipments throughout the year.

According to a previous report by Tom’s Hardware, the new products are reportedly designed for cutting-edge processors used in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads, including NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/B200 GPUs.

Micron delivered a strong finish to fiscal year 2024, with fiscal Q4 revenue at the high end of its guidance range and gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) above the high end of its guidance ranges.

In fiscal Q4, Micron’s revenue jumped 93% YoY to USD 7.75 billion. Its earnings per share (EPS) came in at USD 1.18, a notable turnaround from the loss of USD 1.07 per share in the same period of 2023. In addition, it achieved record-high revenues in NAND and in its storage business unit.

Micron’s fiscal 2024 revenue grew over 60%, with company gross margins expanding by over 30 percentage points and achieved revenue records in data center and in automotive, according to its press release.

Read more

• [News] Micron’s 12-Hi HBM3e Ready for Production, Targeting NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/ B200 GPUs
• [News] Morgan Stanley Predicts ‘DRAM Winter,’ But TrendForce Remains Less Pessimistic

(Photo credit: Micron)