U.S. Services PMI (NMI) continued to expand in September, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on October 3. The NMI rose from 51.5 in August to 54.9 in September, reaching its highest level since February 2023.

Breaking down the sub-indices, the Business Activity Index increased from 53.3 last month to 59.9, while the New Orders Index climbed from 53.0 to 59.4. Both indices have expanded for the third consecutive month, with gains exceeding 6%, driving the overall increase in the NMI and signaling that demand for U.S. services remains robust.

However, the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indices showed mixed performance. The Employment Index fell from 50.2 last month to 48.1, ending two consecutive months of expansion and returning to contraction territory. Surveyed firms reported difficulties in hiring new workers, resulting in slower employee growth, while job vacancies and layoffs remained largely unchanged, aligning with recent signs of a slowing labor market.

On the other hand, the Supplier Deliveries Index rose from 49.6 to 52.1, indicating that stronger business activity and rising orders have caused suppliers to slow their delivery times.

In other indices, the Prices Index rose from 57.3 last month to 59.4, reflecting strong demand, marking the 88th consecutive month of expansion. Meanwhile, the Inventories Index increased from 52.9 to 59.1, suggesting that businesses are stocking up in anticipation of the upcoming holiday season and in response to recent port labor strikes.

Overall, the September NMI data indicate that U.S. consumer demand remains strong. The report notes that the NMI corresponds to an annualized real GDP growth rate of 1.9%.

This contrasts sharply with the Manufacturing PMI data released the day before, which showed a reading of 47.2 for September, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. The gap between the two sectors’ PMI readings has widened to 7.7 points, the largest divergence since late 2019, underscoring the growing disparity in U.S. economic growth trends.

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Last week, the People’s Bank of China introduced significant easing measures targeting interest rates, the real estate market, and the stock market, leading to a nearly 16% rebound in the CSI 300 Index from its low. Meanwhile, although the S&P 500 had already priced in the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut, it continued to hit record highs, buoyed by ongoing gains in tech stocks. In the bond market, the yield spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries remained steady at around 20 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, consolidating around 100.

Key Economic Data Review for Last Week:

U.S. PCE: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August increased by 2.2% year-over-year (previously 2.5%) and 0.1% month-over-month (previously 0.2%). The decline in PCE growth was mainly due to falling goods prices, which saw a year-over-year decrease of -0.9% (previously -0.2%), while services prices remained steady with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%. Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose by 2.7% year-over-year, a slight increase from the previous month’s 2.6%.

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China Industrial Enterprises Total Profits: China Industrial Enterprises Total Profits fell by 17.8% year-over-year in August, a sharper decline from July’s 4.1% drop, marking the largest decrease this year. High-tech manufacturing profits, the largest contributor, declined in August, with cumulative year-over-year growth for January to August standing at 10.9% (previously 12.8%). Additionally, profits in mining and consumer goods manufacturing continued to fall due to weak demand, further exacerbating the downward pressure on overall industrial profits.

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Australia Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged in its September meeting. The meeting statement indicated that restrictive financial conditions are slowing the economy. While household consumption is expected to rebound in the second half, if the recovery pace falls short of expectations, economic output may remain weak, leading to further slack in the labor market. The RBA also noted that recent data has heightened inflationary risks, and inflation is now expected to return to the target range by the end of 2025 (previously mid-2025).

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Key Data to Watch This Week:

China PMI (September 30): China’s August Manufacturing PMI was 49.1 (previously 49.5), marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction. Nearly all sub-indices declined in August, remaining in contraction territory. Given the still-weak domestic demand and the incomplete impact of monetary policies, the market expects the September PMI to hold steady around 49.5.

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U.S. ISM PMI (October 1): The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August was 47.2 (previously 47.4). New orders and production indices fell to 44.6 (previously 47.4) and 44.8 (previously 45.9), continuing to reflect the restrictive financial conditions and uncertainties surrounding the presidential election, which have dampened corporate investment. The market expects manufacturing to exhibit uneven recovery, with the September PMI to remain around 47.6.

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U.S. ISM NMI (October 3): The Non-Manufacturing PMI (NMI) for August was 51.5 (previously 51.4). Despite declines in business activity and employment indices, all indices remained in expansionary territory, indicating overall healthy growth in the services sector. With the U.S. holiday season approaching, the market expects the September NMI to hold steady around 51.5, continuing a trend of moderate growth.

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U.S. Employment Situation (October 4): The U.S. unemployment rate for August was 4.2% (previously 4.3%), remaining near historic lows, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 142,000, within the safe range of 100,000 to 200,000. Additionally, recent initial jobless claims have stopped rising, indicating a slowdown in labor market weakening. Moving forward, it will be important to monitor whether the job market can maintain its current state without deteriorating following the Fed’s rate cuts. The market currently expects the September unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by around 140,000.

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