The US Department of Commerce has added leading Chinese solution provider Sitonholy, who primarily sells processors from Intel and NVIDIA, to its Entity List. This inclusion on the Entity List undoubtedly impacts Sitonholy but also has significant implications for American companies like Intel and NVIDIA.

According to reports from the South China Morning Post and Reuters, Sitonholy sells hardware based on Intel and NVIDIA technologies and also provides cloud services. As a result, US companies engaging in business with Sitonholy require export licenses from the Department of Commerce, but these license applications are presumed to be denied during the review process.

This development is a significant blow to Sitonholy and American companies alike. Kevin Kurland, a US export enforcement official, stated during a hearing of the US Senate subcommittee that the US government has placed four Chinese companies on an export blacklist for assisting the Chinese military in obtaining AI chips. The four Chinese companies are Linkzol Technology, Xi’an Like Innovative Information Technology, Beijing Anwise Technology, and Sitonholy.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the United States for unfairly targeting Chinese companies through export controls and demanded that the US stop politicizing trade and technology issues.

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Under pressure from US restrictions, Intel is reportedly preparing to follow in NVIDIA’s footsteps by developing “special edition” versions of its AI acceleration chips, Gaudi 3, for the Chinese market. These two related products are rumored to be launched at the end of June and the end of September.

According to reports from The Register, Intel recently unveiled its new generation AI acceleration chip, Gaudi 3. Intel stated in the Gaudi 3 white paper that it is preparing to launch a special edition Gaudi 3 tailored for the Chinese market. This would include two hardware variants: the HL-328 OAM-compatible Mezzanine Card and the HL-388 PCIe Accelerator Card. The HL-328 is said to be scheduled for release on June 24, while the HL-388 follow suit on September 24.

In regard of the specifications, the made-for-China edition and the original version share the same features, including 96MB of on-chip SRAM memory, 128GB of HBM2e high-bandwidth memory with a bandwidth of 3.7TB per second, PCIe 5.0X16 interface, and decoding standards.

However, due to US export restrictions on AI chips, the comprehensive computing performance (TPP) of high-performance AI needs to be below 4,800 to export to China. This means the Chinese special edition’s 16-bit performance cannot exceed 150 TFLOPS (trillion floating-point operations per second).

For comparison, the original Gaudi 3 achieves 1,835 TFLOPS in FP16/BF16. This contrasts with NVIDIA’s H100, which is approximately 40% faster in large model training and 50% more efficient in inference tasks.

Therefore, the made-for-China edition will need to significantly reduce the number of cores (the original version has 8 Matrix Multiplication Engines [MME] and 64 Tensor Processor Core [TPC] engines) and operating frequency. Ultimately, this could result in reducing its AI performance by approximately 92% to comply with US export control requirements.

Analyses cited in the same report further suggest that Intel’s launch of the made-for-China edition for AI performance will be comparable to NVIDIA’s AI accelerator card H20 tailored for the Chinese market.

The made-for-China edition of Intel’s Gaudi 3 boasts a performance of 148 TFLOPS in FP16/BF16, slightly below the 150 TFLOPS limit. However, in terms of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity and bandwidth, the Chinese special edition Gaudi 3 will be lower than NVIDIA’s H20, potentially putting it at a competitive disadvantage against the H20. Still, pricing will also be a key factor in determining whether it holds any competitive advantage.

As per a previous report from Reuters, the prices of the chips were said to be comparable to those of its competitor Huawei’s products. Reportedly, NVIDIA priced orders from Chinese H20 distributors between USD 12,000 and 15,000 per unit.

TrendForce believes Chinese companies will continue to buy existing AI chips in the short term. NVIDIA’s GPU AI accelerator chips remain a top priority—including H20, L20, and L2—designed specifically for the Chinese market following the ban.

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Meta Platform, parent company of Facebook, has announced its latest generation AI chip of its Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA) on April 10th, fabricated using TSMC’s 5nm process. According to a report from Commercial Times, this move is expected to reduce Meta’s reliance on NVIDIA’s chips and enhance computational power for AI services.

In its shift towards AI services, Meta requires greater computational capabilities. Thus, last year, Meta introduced its AI models to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The latest AI chip, Artemis, is an upgraded version of MTIA introduced last year, assisting platforms like Facebook and Instagram with content ranking and recommendations.

Meta’s new generation AI chip will be produced by TSMC using the 5nm process. Meta reveals that Artemis offers triple the performance of the first-generation MTIA.

In October last year, Meta announced plans to invest USD 35 billion to establish infrastructure supporting AI, including data centers and hardware. CEO Mark Zuckerberg told investors, “In terms of investment priorities, AI will be our biggest investment area in 2024 for both engineering and compute resources.”

Meta’s proprietary AI chips are deployed in data centers to power AI applications. Meta has several ongoing projects aimed at expanding MTIA’s application scope, including supporting generative AI workloads.

The trend of tech giants developing their own AI chips is evident, with Meta joining competitors like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google in internal AI chip development to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. Google recently unveiled its latest data center AI chip, TPU v5p, on the 9th. Meanwhile, Intel is targeting NVIDIA’s H100 with its new AI chip, Gaudi 3.

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(Photo credit: Meta)

Amid NVIDIA’s leadership in the AI wave, demand for CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) has tripled, driving TSMC to aggressively expand CoWoS capacity, with a corresponding surge in demand for System-in-Integrated-Circuit (SoIC) solutions.

According to a report from MoneyDJ citing industry sources, it has suggested that in addition to AMD, which has already implemented SoIC in production, Apple is conducting limited trial production. Furthermore, collaborations are underway with NVIDIA and Broadcom, indicating that SoIC is poised to become TSMC’s next advanced packaging solution following CoWoS.

TSMC’s SoIC is the industry’s first high-density 3D chip stacking technology, enabling heterogeneous integration of chips with different sizes, functionalities, and nodes using Chip on Wafer packaging. Currently, production takes place at the AP6 assembly and testing facility in Zhunan, Taiwan. It’s rumored that the planned advanced packaging facility in Chiayi, Taiwan will include not only two CoWoS plants but also an SoIC facility.

AMD is the first customer to adopt SoIC technology, with its latest MI300 chip using SoIC combined with CoWoS solution. Apple, TSMC’s primary customer, is reportedly interested in SoIC and plans to incorporate it with Hybrid molding technology for Mac products. Small-scale trials are currently underway, with mass production anticipated between 2025 and 2026. NVIDIA and Broadcom are also collaborating in this field.

As per the same report citing industry sources, the SoIC technology is still in its early stages, with monthly production capacity expected to reach around 2,000 wafers by the end of this year. There are prospects for this capacity to double this year and potentially exceed 10,000 wafers by 2027.

With support from major players like AMD, Apple, and NVIDIA, TSMC’s expansion in SoIC is viewed as confident, securing future orders for high-end chip manufacturing and advanced packaging.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

As TSMC’s earnings call approaches on April 18th, according to a source cited in a report from Commercial Times, it has predicted a downturn in the smartphone industry as it enters a slow season. However, TSMC is reportedly benefiting from AI demand, bolstering its operations through HPC (High-Performance Computing). Additionally, the increasing revenue share from the 3nm process is expected to contribute positively to performance in the second quarter.

TSMC has issued updates for three consecutive days, indicating that the overall recovery rate of its fabs has exceeded 80%. They reiterated their annual performance outlook from January’s earnings call, forecasting revenue growth in the low-to-mid twenties percentage range for the full year. Notably, in the fourth quarter of last year, the revenue share from high-performance computing matched that of smartphones, both reaching 43%, serving as dual engines for operational growth.

The same report, citing sources, indicates that TSMC’s advanced process technology and yield rates lead the industry, making it the primary foundry choice for most global customers.

Based on overall market share, TrendForce’s latest report reveals that in 2023, global foundry revenues hit US$117.47 billion, with TSMC capturing a dominant 60% share. This figure is expected to climb to around $131.65 billion in 2024, increasing TSMC’s share to 62%. It is also estimated in the report from Commercial Times that TSMC holds a market share of approximately 70-80% in 5nm technology, and this is expected to exceed 90% for 3nm, covering nearly all major players in the market.

TSMC has also emphasized that besides traditional smartphone applications, High-Performance Computing (HPC) is becoming an increasingly important application for their advanced processes. This means that even during the second quarter when demand for smartphone chips is typically lower, it will be supported by HPC demand.

The current major AI accelerators such as NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 GPUs, AMD’s Instinct MI250 and MI300, are all manufactured utilizing TSMC’s 7nm or 5nm nodes, highlighting TSMC’s critical position in the AI industry. Reportedly, as demand for AI-based Generative AI (AIGC) continues to rise, TSMC’s production volume is also expected to increase accordingly.

According to the same report citing sources, TSMC’s utilization rate for its 3nm production remains high and unaffected despite the impact of the recent earthquake on its facilities. TSMC has emphasized that key machines used for advanced processes, including all Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV), were undamaged.

However, in areas where the shaking was more severe, certain production lines are expected to require longer adjustments and calibration to restore automated production. TSMC is conducting a comprehensive review of the impact of this earthquake while maintaining close communication with its customers.

Furthermore, TSMC’s biggest challenge at the moment is how to catch up with customer expansion demands.

The most lacking capacity currently is in CoWoS production. Although TSMC maintains its stance of doubling capacity compared to 2023, market estimates cited in the report indicate that TSMC’s capacity is expected to increase from around 13,000 wafers to 30,000-35,000 wafers. This aligns with what founder Morris Chang described—AI chip demand in the future will no longer be in the tens or hundreds of thousands of wafers but will require the capacity of 3, 5, or even 10 fabs.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)