During CES 2024, NVIDIA announced that four Chinese electric vehicle brands will adopt its autonomous driving chip platform. According to a report from IJIWEI, this move has showed NVIDIA’s potential intention to expand in China, despite facing stricter export controls from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The four automakers include Li Auto, Great Wall Motor (GWM), ZEEKR, and Xiaomi, all set to utilize NVIDIA’s DRIVE technology solution to support autonomous driving capabilities.

The NVIDIA DRIVE platform encompasses automotive sensors, computing platforms, hardware and software for autonomous driving development, as well as DGX servers for artificial intelligence (AI) training.

NVIDIA has stated in the release that Li Auto selected the NVIDIA DRIVE Thor in-vehicle computer, featuring two DRIVE Orin processors with a computing power of 508 trillion operations per second (TOPS). This setup enables real-time fusion of information from various sensors, driving advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and a comprehensive autonomous driving system for all scenarios.

Furthermore, GWM, ZEEKR, and Xiaomi have adopted the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin platform to power their intelligent autonomous driving systems.

GWM mentioned that its autonomously developed high-end intelligent driving system, Coffee Pilot, based on the DRIVE Orin platform, supports intelligent navigation and assisted driving functions across all scenarios without the need for high-precision maps.

Xiaomi’s first car, SU7, will be built on a dual DRIVE Orin configuration, with the assisted driving system incorporating Xiaomi’s in-house large-language perception and decision-making model, adaptable to various roads nationwide.

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• [News] NVIDIA Expands Autonomous Driving Team in China, Actively Recruiting Talent

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

In the intense battle of AI chips between NVIDIA and AMD this year, AMD’s MI300 has entered mass production and shipment 1H24, gaining positive adoption from clients. In response, NVIDIA is gearing up to launch upgraded AI chips. TSMC emerges as the big winner by securing orders from both NVIDIA and AMD.

Industry sources have revealed optimism as NVIDIA’s AI chip shipment momentum is expected to reach around 3 million units this year, representing multiple growth compared to 2023.

With the production ramp-up of the AMD MI300 series chips, the total number of AI high-performance computing chips from NVIDIA and AMD for TSMC in 2024 is anticipated to reach 3.5 million units. This boost in demand is expected to contribute to the utilization rate of TSMC’s advanced nodes.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, TSMC has not commented on rumors regarding customers and orders.

Industry sources have further noted that the global AI boom ignited in 2023, and 2024 continues to be a focal point for the industry. A notable shift from 2023 is that NVIDIA, which has traditionally dominated the field of high-performance computing (HPC) in AI, is now facing a challenge from AMD’s MI300 series products, which have begun shipping, intensifying competition for market share.

Reportedly, the AMD MI300A series products have commenced mass production and shipment this quarter. The central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) tile are manufactured using TSMC’s 5nm process, while the IO tile use TSMC’s 6nm process.

These chips are integrated through TSMC’s new System-on-Integrated-Chip (SoIC) and Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) advanced packaging technologies. Additionally, AMD’s MI300X, which does not integrate the CPU, is also shipping simultaneously.

Compared to NVIDIA’s GH200, which integrates CPU and GPU, and the H200, focusing solely on GPU computation, AMD’s new AI chip performance exceeds expectations. It offers a lower price and a high cost-performance advantage, attracting adoption by ODMs.

In response to strong competition from AMD, NVIDIA is upgrading its product line. Apart from its high-demand H200 and GH200, NVIDIA is expected to launch new products such as B100 and GB200, utilizing TSMC’s 3nm process, by the end of the year.

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• [News] Nvidia vs. AMD, the Expensive Duel as Two Major Buyers Opt for AMD’s Latest AI GPU
• [News] TSMC’s CoWoS Demand Surges from NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Monthly Capacity Up 120% in 2024

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

In order to comply with new regulations on the export of chips to the United States, NVIDIA has been consistently releasing AI chips and graphics cards tailored for the Chinese market.

However, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, since November 2023, major cloud service provider (CSP) in China such as Alibaba and Tencent have been testing samples of NVIDIA’s special chips. These Chinese enterprises have conveyed to NVIDIA that the quantity of chips they plan to order in 2024 will be significantly lower than their initial plans.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, in October 2023, the United States announced new regulations preventing NVIDIA from selling advanced AI chips to China. However, NVIDIA swiftly developed a “special edition” chip for China, allowing them to continue selling chips in the Chinese market without violating regulations.

Nevertheless, NVIDIA is facing another challenge: major Chinese CSPs are not actively purchasing the “downgraded” performance versions of the chips.

Chinese enterprises have been testing the highest-performance version, H20, of NVIDIA’s “special edition” AI chips. Some testers have mentioned that this chip enables efficient data transfer among multiple processors, making it a better choice than domestic alternatives for building chip clusters required for processing AI computational workloads.

However, testers also indicate that they need more H20 to compensate for the performance gap compared to previous NVIDIA chips, which increases their costs.

The report indicates that in the short term, the performance advantage of NVIDIA’s “downgraded” chips over domestic Chinese products is diminishing, making Chinese-made chips increasingly attractive to buyers.

Informed sources cited from the report suggest that major players like Alibaba and Tencent are redirecting some advanced semiconductor orders to domestic companies and relying more on internally developed chips. This trend is also observed with the other two major chip buyers, Baidu and ByteDance.

Looking ahead in the long term, Chinese customers are uncertain about NVIDIA’s ability to continue supplying them with chips, as U.S. regulatory authorities have committed to regularly reviewing chip export controls, potentially tightening restrictions on chip performance further.

From the perspective of China’s efforts in the independent development of AI chips, TrendForce previously highlighted in its press release that Chinese CSPs like Baidu and Alibaba are actively investing in autonomous AI chip development.

Baidu developed its first self-researched ASIC AI chip, Kunlunxin, in early 2020, with its second generation scheduled for mass production in 2021 and the third expected to launch in 2024. Post-2023, Baidu aimed to use Huawei’s Ascend 910B acceleration chips and expand the use of Kunlunxin chips for its AI infrastructure.

After Alibaba’s acquisition of CPU IP supplier Zhongtian Micro Systems in April 2018 and the establishment of T-Head Semiconductor in September of the same year, the company began developing its own ASIC AI chips, including the Hanguang 800.

TrendForce reports that T-Head’s initial ASIC chips were co-designed with external companies like GUC. However, after 2023, Alibaba is expected to increasingly leverage its internal resources to enhance the independent design capabilities of its next-gen ASIC chips, primarily for Alibaba Cloud’s AI infrastructure.

According to the data from TrendForce, currently, around 80% of the high-end AI chips used by Chinese cloud computing companies are sourced from NVIDIA. However, in the next five years, this proportion may decrease to 50% to 60%.

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• [News] NVIDIA’s China-exclusive Chip H20 to Begin Production in Q2 by Wistron
• China Continues to Enhance AI Chip Self-Sufficiency, but High-End AI Chip Development Remains Constrained, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

In October of 2023, the U.S. government expanded its restrictions on chip exports, limiting NVIDIA from exporting certain chips to China without prior permission. Despite this, NVIDIA is not expected to relinquish the Chinese market and may commence production of the AI chip “H20,” specifically designed for China, in the second quarter of this year.

According to a report from Wccftech, there is keen interest in NVIDIA’s potential exclusive chips for China, including H20, L20, and L2, intended to replace H100, L40, and L4, catering to the AI training needs of Chinese customers.

NVIDIA is reportedly trying to accelerate its return to the Chinese AI chip market, expecting to quickly regain its advantage and market share. It is understood that the main base board supplier for the new product remains Wistron.

The orders from the relevant supply chain manufacturers’ clients will be deferred and are expected to see substantial shipments starting from the second quarter.

The report indicates that progress on these chip projects is steady, and the products fully comply with U.S. export restrictions. Production of the H20 is expected to commence in the second quarter.

Furthermore, it is reported that these GPUs were originally scheduled for release at the end of 2023 but faced delays due to the ongoing tensions between China and the US.

NVIDIA emphasized that the AI chip designed specifically for the Chinese market will fully comply with the requirements and guidelines of the U.S. Department of Commerce, subsequently enabling the launch of the GeForce RTX 4090D in China.

Industry sources estimate that NVIDIA is actively seeking to comply with U.S. government computing power regulations by further reducing the customized chip’s performance. However, due to missing a sales opportunity, many Chinese customers have begun exploring the purchase of local AI chips as an alternative to NVIDIA products.

This is primarily driven by the availability and competitive cost-effectiveness of Chinese chips, with several Chinese companies switching to Huawei products for AI training.

While NVIDIA has significantly streamlined the H20 to meet local demands in China, with computing power reduced to only 15% of the H100, the H20 still aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in specifications.

According to leaked specifications circulating online at the end of 2023, the H20 boasts a FP8 computing power of 296 TFLOPs and FP16 computing power of 148 TFLOPs, with an increased memory capacity of 96GB compared to the H100’s 80GB.

However, domestically-produced chips in China are also formidable. It is claimed that the performance of the H20 is only one-fourth that of Huawei’s HiSilicon Ascend 910B, yet its price is exceptionally high. Therefore, for some Chinese enterprises, there is still an incentive to adopt self-developed AI chips. In the future, whether the potential for domestically-produced AI chips in China can disrupt NVIDIA’s monopoly is yet to be seen.

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• [News] NVIDIA’s China-Exclusive GeForce RTX 4090 D Rumored to be Launched on December 28th
• [News] TSMC to Expedite Production of NVIDIA’s Specialized Chips for China

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

With its 3nm manufacturing process in mass production for approximately a year, TSMC is expected to have a breakthrough in customer acquisition and capacity utilization in 2024.

According to predictions from a South Korean outlet The Elec, aside from Apple, customers such as NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to place orders for the second generation of the 3nm process within the year. This is anticipated to significantly boost TSMC’s 3nm process capacity utilization to 80% by the end of the year.

Chinese tech media ICsmart further quoted from the report, stating that although TSMC announced the mass production of its 3nm process in December 2022, the first-generation 3nm process (N3B) had only one customer throughout 2023, which was Apple. Companies like MediaTek and Qualcomm opted for the 4nm process due to cost considerations.

However, the report suggests that in 2024, more companies, in addition to Apple, are expected to place orders for the more cost-effective second generation of the 3nm process (N3E). This is anticipated to boost TSMC’s overall production capacity for the 3nm process.

Several chip companies are expected to adopt the N3E process for their new products. The report suggests that TSMC’s customers for this process may include Qualcomm, which is gearing up to launch the new Snapdragon 8 Gen 4, MediaTek with its next-generation Dimensity 9400, Apple with its M3 Ultra chip and A18 Pro processor, AMD with the Zen 5 CPU and RDNA 4 GPU, and NVIDIA with the Blackwell architecture GPU. Notably, the Apple M3 Ultra chip might make its debut in the upgraded Mac Studio around mid-year.

The report notes that TSMC initially anticipated steady growth for the 3nm process in early 2023 as yields improved, but with only Apple as a customer, the “steady growth” of the 3nm process negatively impacted TSMC’s performance.

The report suggests that with TSMC’s new orders from customers beyond Apple for the 3nm process, a considerable rebound is expected. Monthly production is projected to reach 100,000 wafers by 2024, and the 3nm production capacity utilization rate is poised to soar to 80% by the end of 2024.

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• [News] Intel’s Next Gen CPU to Produce at TSMC with 3nm in First Half of Next Year
• [News] TSMC’s N3P to Enter Mass Production in the Second Half of Next Year, Rumored Inclusion of Tesla in Customer List

(Photo credit: TSMC)