As September draws closer and iPhone 16’s release date is nearing, suppliers have been ramping up their production of iPhone 16 OLED panels in preparation. According to the reports by ETNews and MacRumors, Samsung Display and LG Display started initial production of iPhone 16 OLED panels as early as in June, and have substantially boosted production over the past month.

ETnews notes that Apple is forecasting shipments of approximately 90 million iPhone 16 units this year, while the production of OLED panels is estimated to be around 30% higher, totaling about 120 million units.

Among them, Samsung is said to have the lion’s share by supplying around 80 million OLED panels by the end of this year, while LGD is projected to provide approximately 43 million panels, according to ETnews. Both companies are on track to meet these production targets.

The reports states that the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max will have a design similar to the iPhone 15 models, but Apple is increasing the sizes of the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max.

The iPhone 16 Pro will feature a 6.3-inch display, up from 6.1 inches, while the iPhone 16 Pro Max will have a 6.9-inch display, an increase from 6.7 inches. The display sizes for the standard iPhone 16 models will remain unchanged, with the iPhone 16 maintaining a 6.1-inch display and the iPhone 16 Plus featuring a 6.7-inch display.

Earlier in May, both LG Display and Samsung Display secured orders for OLED panels for Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro, according to a previous report from The Elec. Subsequently, LG Display also has acquired orders for iPhone 16 Pro Max panels.

It seems that Apple tends to release more OLED orders to LGD and counts on it to be a solid second supplier. Another report by The Elec reveals that Apple is likely to use LGD as the second supplier for the OLED screens of next year’s iPhone SE 4. The iPhone SE series is Apple’s budget-friendly option, traditionally sourcing screens exclusively from the Chinese manufacturer BOE.

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(Photo credit Apple)

Following its success in the LCD panel market, China’s BOE Technology Group plans to lead in the OLED panel sector as well. According to a report from Japanese media outlet Nikkei News on May 27th, BOE, China’s largest panel manufacturer, plans to boost its OLED panel production capacity by more than a half compared to the current level within the next three years.

As per the same report from Nikkei News, BOE has established a series of LCD plants with support from the Chinese government. In the OLED panel sector, BOE is also said to be eyeing on becoming the market leader by expanding production and catching up with South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics.

Reportedly, BOE’s new OLED panel plant “B16” in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, began construction in late March. The goal is to complete the plant building by 2024, install manufacturing equipment by September 2025, and start mass production in 2026, producing 8.6-generation OLED panels. BOE’s competitor, Samsung Electronics, is also said to be looking for mass production of 8.6-generation OLED panels in 2026 by upgrading its existing plants.

The same report further indicates that BOE is actively hiring talented professionals from Japan and South Korea and leveraging global suppliers. Thus, BOE’s OLED panel technology has reportedly gained recognition, successfully entering Apple’s iPhone OLED panel supply chain, serving as a catalyst for its growth.

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(Photo credit: BOE)

The market in general had high hopes for Mini LED notebook computers in 2021. Although most brands were relatively unenthusiastic towards the adoption of Mini LED displays, the release of Mini LED products by Apple will likely generate a copycat effect and inject fresh momentum into both demand and shipment for the Mini LED notebook market. Apple did, in fact, release two brand new MacBook Pros with 14.2-inch and 16.2-inch displays, both of which are equipped with Mini LED backlights as expected. However, these Mini LED notebook displays did not receive as much marketing and publicity as the Mini LED displays used for the iPad Pro models, which had been released about six months prior.

During the unveiling of the 12.9-inch iPad Pro in 2Q21, Apple made special mention of improvements brought about by the Liquid Retina XDR display technology thanks to the company’s adoption of Mini LED backlights. Conversely, perhaps because the new physical dimensions and processors took most of the spotlight, Apple was surprisingly quiet on its new MacBook Pro models’ Mini LED displays as it announced the release of these new computers during its October event. Not only did the Mini LED iPad Pros completely replace the previous edge-lit models, but these new tablets also featured a mere US$100 retail price hike, which basically entirely accounts for the cost of the new displays. Subsequently, the market began eagerly anticipating the release of the new Mini LED iPad Pro models. In contrast, whereas the 14.2-inch and 16.2-inch models of the new MacBook Pros also feature Mini LED displays exclusively, their retail prices saw significant jumps owing to the integration of multiple updated components and designs, in turn refreshing the enthusiasm of the market for Mini LED displays.

Thanks to the release of the two new MacBook models, annual Mini LED notebook shipment for 2021 reached 2.2 million units, representing a 1% penetration rate in the total notebook market. Regrettably, apart from MacBooks, the shipment volume of Mini LED notebooks released by non-Apple brands was rather insignificant. Looking ahead to 2022, given the all-out effort by Apple to ramp up MacBook shipment throughout the whole year, annual Mini LED notebook shipment for 2022 will likely undergo a staggering 360% YoY increase to eight million units for a 3.4% penetration rate. However, judging by notebook brands’ adoption of display solutions at the moment, most non-Apple brands will still gravitate towards OLED panels in 2022, with minimal adoption of Mini LED displays.

If Gen 8.5 OLED panel production lines are able to kick off mass production from 2024 onwards, will Apple transition its MacBook displays to a different solution much like it did for iPad? TrendForce believes that Apple has historically held a receptive attitude towards OLED solutions. Furthermore, from a technology assessment perspective, notebook computers and tablets are relatively similar in their display technologies and, to a lesser extent, use cases. If Apple does decide to transition iPad displays from Mini LED to OLED, then the company will likely do the same for MacBook display as well, in principle. On the other hand, LCD panels are still expected to remain the mainstream display technology for notebook computers in 2025. It, therefore, makes competitive sense for notebook brands to differentiate their products with OLED panels in the high-end segment and with LCD panels and Mini LED backlights in the premium mid-range segment or even mid-range segment. At any rate, given the shrinking gap between the cost structures of Mini LED solutions and OLED solutions, only by continually optimizing the manufacturing costs of Mini LED backlights can suppliers convince Apple to continue adopting Mini LED displays.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

Benefiting from expanded introduction of AMOLED mobile phone models by Apple, Samsung and Chinese brands, the market penetration rate of AMOLED panels for mobile phones in 2021 was 42%, according to TrendForce‘s investigations. In 2022, continuous investment undertaken by numerous panel factories to expand AMOLED production lines will drive AMOLED panel penetration rate to an estimated 46%. However, TrendForce further asserts that the continued tight supply of AMOLED DDI and the willingness of mobile phone brands to expand the use of AMOLED panels will be the keys influencing AMOLED market penetration rate next year.

Continued tightness in AMOLED DDI supply for mobile phones

The AMOLED DDI process requires dedicated medium voltage 8V processes at the 40nm and 28nm nodes. However, the supply of dedicated process capacity in 2021 is limited. In addition, Samsung’s Austin, Texas fab was shut down due to a snowstorm in early 2021, resulting in serious shortages of AMOLED DDI. New capacity in 2022 includes UMC at the 28nm node and SMIC at the 40nm node. However, since capacity and expanded capacity still cannot effectively meet the various brand’s demand for AMOLED DDI, Samsung’s fab will continue to reduce OLED DDIC production scale in the future. Stocking issues are expected to plague AMOLED DDI continuing into 2022.

TrendForce states, UMC’s primary expansion plan for 28nm AMOLED DDI will be completed by the end of 2023, so AMOLED DDI supply tightness is expected to be alleviated in 2023. In addition, other foundries have plans to develop dedicated AMOLED DDI processes but, due to a belated development schedule, these plans will not be able to address the AMOLED DDI shortage in 2022. Facing limitations on dedicated AMOLED DDI production capacity, traditional front-line DDI design houses are actively booking the majority of production capacity, while other DDI design houses are also competing for limited production capacity in order to enter the AMOLED panel factory supply chain.

Mobile phone brands expand their willingness to adopt AMOLED panels

Facing the gradual maturity of AMOLED panel technology and the continuous improvement of production yields, AMOLED market penetration rate will increase from 42% in 2021 to 46% in 2022. This will reduce the market share of LTPS panels in the mid-tier market and drive panel makers to transfer LTPS production capacity to medium size applications. However, mobile phone brands face the risk of AMOLED DDI continuing to being out of stock in 2022. In addition to the high price of AMOLED panels and the steady increase in the pricing of other semiconductor components, in order for mobile phone brands to maintain profitability and achieve annual shipment goals, TrendForce expects that a small number of AMOLED products may switch over to LCD panels to pad shipments in the mid-to-low-end mobile phone market, allowing LTPS panel makers to gain a bit of breathing room in the mid-end market.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com