Following its success in the LCD panel market, China’s BOE Technology Group plans to lead in the OLED panel sector as well. According to a report from Japanese media outlet Nikkei News on May 27th, BOE, China’s largest panel manufacturer, plans to boost its OLED panel production capacity by more than a half compared to the current level within the next three years.

As per the same report from Nikkei News, BOE has established a series of LCD plants with support from the Chinese government. In the OLED panel sector, BOE is also said to be eyeing on becoming the market leader by expanding production and catching up with South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics.

Reportedly, BOE’s new OLED panel plant “B16” in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, began construction in late March. The goal is to complete the plant building by 2024, install manufacturing equipment by September 2025, and start mass production in 2026, producing 8.6-generation OLED panels. BOE’s competitor, Samsung Electronics, is also said to be looking for mass production of 8.6-generation OLED panels in 2026 by upgrading its existing plants.

The same report further indicates that BOE is actively hiring talented professionals from Japan and South Korea and leveraging global suppliers. Thus, BOE’s OLED panel technology has reportedly gained recognition, successfully entering Apple’s iPhone OLED panel supply chain, serving as a catalyst for its growth.

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• Shipments of OLED Monitors Hit 200,000 Units in 1Q24, Annual Forecast to Reach 1.34 Million, Says TrendForce[News] NVIDIA’s H100 Chip Heat Declines, CoWoS Capacity Eases

(Photo credit: BOE)

Apple’s upcoming iPad Pro, featuring an OLED screen for the first time, is scheduled to be released in March or April. However, recent market reports suggest a potential 30% reduction in the estimated order volume, indicating Apple’s cautious outlook on the new product. It’s anticipated that suppliers in the supply chain such as LG Display (LGD), TSMC, Foxconn, and Novatek will also be affected.

Aju Korea Daily, citing industry sources, reported that Apple has reduced the OLED screen orders for its new iPad Pro. The initial order of 10 million units has been adjusted to a range of 7 million to 8 million units. LGD is expected to be the most impacted, with the supply scale decreasing from 6 million units to a minimum of 3 million units, while Samsung maintains a supply of 4 million units.

Industry speculation suggests that the reduction in the initial order may be due to a cautious outlook on the demand in the early stages of the product launch. The pricing of the new iPad Pro has not been determined, but it is likely to be higher than the current iPad with an LCD screen.

Historically, all iPad models from Apple have utilized LCD panels. However, this year’s release of the 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pro models marks the first time Apple is incorporating OLED panels.

On another note, in addition to applying OLED screens to the iPad Pro this year, Apple reportedly plans to use them in future laptop products such as the MacBook. Therefore, the performance of the OLED iPad in terms of sales will serve as a significant market indicator for Apple’s future ventures into OLED technology.

Additionally, the adoption of OLED screens will result in an increase in the price of the iPad Pro. The loyalty of iPad consumers has traditionally been lower than that of iPhone users, posing a challenge for Apple in achieving strong performance this year.

The estimated order volume reduction is expected to have an impact on the iPad Pro supply chain, affecting key manufacturers such as TSMC, Foxconn, and Novatek.

According to sources cited by the Economic Daily News, TSMC is the exclusive supplier of Apple’s chips, while Foxconn is the main assembly plant for the iPad Pro. Novatek is a supplier of OLED screen driver ICs for the Korean market. However, the mentioned companies have refrained from commenting on specific clients and products.

TSMC has been the primary manufacturer of main chips for various Apple devices. Last year, there were reports in the market that Apple secured TSMC’s 3-nanometer production capacity for at least a year.

Despite current market uncertainties, TSMC estimates that the semiconductor market will see a growth of over 10% this year, with the foundry industry expected to grow by 20%. TSMC’s financial performance is projected to outpace industry standards, demonstrating quarterly growth.

Novatek previously indicated that there might be competition in the OLED driver IC sector this year. Nevertheless, the company plans to continue its strategic focus on advanced products such as applications for foldable devices, OLED touch, and integrated touch and display driver ICs (TDDI).

As for Foxconn, the company is gradually entering the traditional off-season. Seasonal performance is expected to be similar to the past three years. In the first quarter of 2023, higher shipment volume resulting from the resumption of normal production in Chinese factories post-pandemic is anticipated to lead to a year-on-year decline in performance for the first quarter of this year.

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• [News] Leak Reveals LGD as the Largest Supplier of Apple’s OLED iPad Pro Screen
• [News] TSMC Reportedly Attracts Influx of 3nm Customers, Predicts Production Capacity Utilization to Surge to 80% by Year-End

(Photo credit: Apple)

Samsung Display has unveiled the RGB version of Micro OLED (OLEDoS) for the first time at CES 2024, presenting the industry’s reportedly highest-resolution RGB OLEDoS display screen.

As per Samsung Display’s news release, Samsung Display has indicated that Micro OLED achieves high-definition displays with small pixel sizes, achieved by applying organic materials to silicon wafers, playing a crucial role in the increasingly popular XR headsets.

Although the Micro OLED is only 1.03 inches, it has a pixel density of 3,500 PPI, making it the industry’s highest resolution RGB OLEDoS display, which utilizes red, green and blue OLEDs on silicon wafers to generate color without the need for a separate light source.

Samsung has previously acquired Micro LED developer eMagin last year. In addition, there are reports indicating that Apple is developing the second generation of Vision Pro, expected to be unveiled in 2027. It is rumored to adopt advanced RGB OLEDoS technology, and the acquisition of eMagin by Samsung also positions them to provide the necessary technology for Apple.

If Apple is interested in upgrading its Vision Pro 2 display tech, Samsung’s exhibit at CES 2024 could be considered a showcase, proving that its Micro OLED technology is gradually gaining ground, and that it has a potential chance of replacing Sony as a Vision Pro 2 display supplier.

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• [News] Matching Apple’s Vision Pro Momentum? Rumors Suggest Samsung Expediting XR Device Launch in Early 2024
• [News] Apple’s Vision Pro Finally Set to Hit the Shelves – Available in the U.S. from February 2nd, 2024

(Photo credit: Samsung)

In the past few years, the rapid growth of the Mini LED backlight market has been closely tied to the support from consumer electronics giant Apple. Apple pioneered the integration of Mini LED backlight technology into tablet products, sparking increased demand for Mini LED technology in the consumer market. However, it seems that Apple is now steering away from the Mini LED backlight technology path.

Recently, well-known Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a 2024 forecast report for the new iPad models. The upcoming iPad Pro is expected to replace the current Mini LED backlight panel with an OLED panel.

Additionally, the 12.9-inch version of the iPad Air model will feature an Oxide backplane, similar to the one used in Mini LED backlight panels, to enhance display performance.

From Apple’s strategic shift in abandoning Mini LED in favor of OLED for iPad Pro, it appears that the primary consideration is cost.

While the manufacturing process for Mini LED has matured in recent years, resulting in continuous cost reductions, the current cost of Mini LED remains higher compared to the more established and mature OLED technology.

In contrast, OLED’s cost performance is noteworthy. According to observations from TrendForce, OLED manufacturers have committed to investing in 8.5th generation OLED for laptops and tablets this year, indicating a potential further decrease in OLED costs.

Furthermore, OLED offers features such as slim design, low power consumption, quick response, high clarity, and flexibility, similar to Mini LED backlight technology.

This not only enhances the display performance of iPad Pro but also optimizes aspects like thickness, weight, and energy consumption, aligning with the characteristics of portable tablet products.

Apple’s Planned Shift from Mini LED to OLED

Looking back at the development of Mini LED in recent years, Apple’s utilization of this technology has not been extensive, and it has typically been reserved for Apple’s most high-end products, such as the 2019 Pro Display XDR. Subsequent releases, including the iPad Pro and MacBook Pro, also adopted the same technology.

While Apple successfully integrated Mini LED backlight technology into the highest-end versions of displays, tablets, and laptops, some releases and production of Apple’s Mini LED backlight products were delayed during this period. This includes rumored products like the iMac Pro featuring Mini LED backlight screens and the second generation of the 27-inch display Apple Studio Display.

While Apple has been incorporating Mini LED backlight technology into high-end products, the company is also exploring the expansion of OLED technology beyond iPhones to include more devices.

Last year, it was reported that BOE is constructing an 8.6th generation OLED display production line to fulfill orders for Apple’s future iPad and MacBook models featuring OLED screens, expected to be operational by the end of 2024.

As for the upcoming iPad Pro tablet set to be launched as early as next year, there are indications that Samsung and LG will provide dual-layer OLED panels. This promises a doubling of screen brightness, an extended lifespan, and lower power consumption compared to Mini LED backlight technology.

Mini LED Backlight Demand Continues to Grow

TrendForce analysis indicates that, influenced by the Apple brand effect, Mini LED backlight has officially entered the application markets of laptops and tablets. However, due to high costs, Apple has notably slowed down the pace of introducing Mini LED backlight to laptops and tablets.

While the change in Apple’s display technology roadmap has had a certain impact on the Mini LED backlight market, especially in tablets and laptops where Apple holds a larger share, TrendForce’s report points out that the applications of Mini LED in TVs, displays, and automotive displays are still on a growth path.

It is worth noting that the main applications in TVs and displays continue to show a growth trend, while future potential applications like automotive displays provide more possibilities for the growth of the Mini LED backlight market.

With ongoing optimization of technology and costs, the overall Mini LED backlight market is expected to maintain a growth trend.

According to data from TrendForce’s report “2024 New Mini LED BLU Display Trend Analysis“, after a brief decline in shipments in 2023, applications with Mini LED backlight technology are expected to return to growth in 2024, with an estimated shipment volume of 13.79 million units.

With the trend of Mini LED terminal products becoming more affordable, the shipment volume is expected to continue growing, reaching an estimated 31.45 million units by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 23.9% from 2023 to 2027.

(Photo credit: Apple)

With the approach to the end of 2023, TrendForce revealed the tech trends in every sector, apparently, AI continues as the main focus to decide the direction of how the tech supply chain will be in the next few years, here are the seeings:

CSPs increase AI investment, driving a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024

• CSPs increase AI investment, fueling a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024.
• Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS are driving this growth due to the rising popularity of AI applications, pushing AI server shipments to 1.2 million units in 2023.

HBM3e set to drive an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue

• Major memory suppliers are set to introduce HBM3e with faster speeds (8 Gbps) to enhance the performance of AI accelerator chips in 2024–2025.
• HBM integration is becoming common among GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and it is expected that HBM will significantly contribute to memory suppliers’ revenues in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 172%.

Rising demand for advanced packaging in 2024, the emergence of 3D IC technology

• Leading semiconductor firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are emphasizing advanced packaging technology’s importance in boosting chip performance, conserving space, reduce power usage, and minimize latency. They’re establishing 3D IC research centers in Japan to underscore this role.
• Generative AI is driving increased demand for 2.5D packaging tech, integrating computing chips and memory with a silicon interposer layer. Additionally, 3D packaging solutions like TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros.

NTN is set to begin with small-scale commercial tests, broader applications of this technology are on the way in 2024

• Collaboration between satellite operators, semiconductor firms, telecom operators, and smartphone makers is growing due to increased satellite deployments by operators. This collaboration focuses on mobile satellite communication applications and bidirectional data transmission under specific conditions.
• Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up efforts in satellite communication chips, leading top smartphone manufacturers to integrate satellite communication into high-end phones using the SoC model, which is expected to drive small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks and promote widespread adoption of NTN applications.

6G communication to begin in 2024, with satellite communication taking center stage

• 6G standardization begins around 2024-2025, with initial technologies expected by 2027-2028. This enables novel applications like Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC), NTN for high-altitude comms, and immersive Extended Reality (XR) experiences.
• Low-orbit satellites will play a key role in 6G as its standards solidify, peaking around the time of 6G commercialization. The use of drones for 6G communication and environmental sensing is also set to surge in the 6G era.

Innovative entrants drive cost optimization for Micro LED technology in 2024

• In 2023, the focus in Micro LED display technology is on cost reduction through chip downsizing, aiming for at least a 20-25% annual reduction. A hybrid transfer approach, combining stamping and laser bonding, is gaining attention for efficient mass production.
• Micro LED holds potential in micro-projection displays for transparent AR lenses. Challenges include achieving ultra-high PPI with 5 µm or smaller chips, particularly with red LEDs’ low efficiency. Various innovative approaches, such as InGan-based red LEDs and vertically stacked RGB LEDs.

Intensifying competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies

• Increasing AR/VR headset demand drives demand for ultra-high PPI near-eye displays, with Micro OLED technology at the forefront, poised for broader adoption.
• Challenges in brightness and efficiency impact Micro OLED displays and their dominance in the head-mounted display market depends on the development of various micro-display technologies.

Advancements in material and component technologies are propelling the commercialization of gallium oxide

• Gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is gaining prominence for next-gen power semiconductor devices due to its potential in high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency applications in EVs, electrical grids, and aerospace.
• The industry is already producing 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals and advancing Schottky diode and transistor fabrication processes, with the first Schottky diode products expected by 2024.

Solid-state batteries poised to reshape the EV battery landscape over the next decade

• Major automakers and battery manufacturers are investing in solid-state and semi-solid-state battery technologies, aiming for a new cycle of technological iteration by 2024.
• After Li-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, with lower energy density, are suitable for budget-friendly EVs, and hydrogen fuel cells offer long-range and zero emissions, primarily for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, with widespread adoption expected after 2025, despite challenges.

BEVs in 2024 rely on power conversion efficiency, driving range, and charging efficiency

• Automakers are optimizing battery pack structures and material ratios to increase energy density and driving range. Solid-state batteries, with high energy density, may see limited installations in vehicles as semi-solid batteries in 2H23.
• The 800V platform will enable high-power fast charging, leading to the expansion of high-power charging stations. AI advancements are driving EVs toward advanced autonomous driving, with Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer investing in neural network training to maintain its position in the intelligent driving market.

Green solutions with AI simulations emerging as a linchpin for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing

• Under the background of optimizing energy consumption, creating interconnected data ecosystems, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Carbon auditing tools and AI are key for organizations aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
• The IEA predicts global renewable energy generation to reach 4,500 GW by 2024, driven by policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and energy crises. The adoption of AI-driven smart technologies in peripheral systems for stable energy generation.

OLED’s expansion will across various applications driven by the innovation of foldable phones

• OLED folding phones are improving in design by using lightweight materials, innovative hinge structures, and cost-reduction efforts to approach the thickness and weight of traditional smartphones.
• In the IT sector, industry players like Samsung, BOE Technology, JDI, and Visionox are making significant investments and developments in OLED technology to expand into various markets. Anticipated advancements in technology and materials are expected to increase OLED market penetration by 2025.