Amid the advancement of emerging applications such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), High-Performance Computing (HPC), data center, and autonomous vehicle, fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP) technology has successfully garnered industry attention due to its advantages in significantly improving computing power, reducing latency, and increasing bandwidth. As a result, more manufacturers are entering this field.

Recently, semiconductor equipment manufacturer ACM Research Shanghai introduced the Ultra ECP ap-p panel-level electroplating equipment for FOPLP.

Prior to this, ACM has launched the Ultra C vac-p negative pressure cleaning equipment designed for fan-out panel-level packaging applications, signaling that ACM has successfully entered the high-growth FOPLP market.

It is worth mentioning that since the second quarter of this year, chip manufacturers like AMD have actively approached TSMC and professional OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) companies to promote chip packaging using FOPLP technology, further increasing industry focus on FOPLP.

In fact, advanced packaging has an increasing demand for low-latency, high-bandwidth, and cost-effective semiconductor chips, and FOPLP offers high bandwidth and high-density chip interconnects, making it a technology with higher potential.

FOPLP is a process performed on larger square substrates, allowing multiple chips, passive components, and interconnects to be integrated into a single package on a panel, offering greater flexibility, scalability, and cost effectiveness.

By redistributing chips on larger rectangular panels, FOPLP largely reduces the costs of packaging large GPU and high-density, high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

It is reported that the utilization rate of traditional silicon wafers is less than 85%, while that of panels exceeds 95%. The effective area of a 600×600 mm panel is 5.7 times that of a 300 mm traditional silicon wafer, with overall panel cost expected to decrease by 66%.

The increase in area utilization leads to higher capacity, greater flexibility in AI chip design, and significant cost reduction.

Currently, major players in the FOPLP advanced packaging field include Powertech Technology, ASE Group, SPIL, TSMC, Innolux, JSnepes, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

TrendForce points out that FOPLP technology presents advantages and disadvantages, facing both opportunities and challenges. Its main strengths are lower unit cost and larger package size, but as its technology and equipment systems are still developing, the commercialization process is highly uncertain.

It is estimated that the mass production timeline for FOPLP in consumer IC and AI GPU may fall between the second half of 2024 to 2026, and 2027-2028, respectively.

Read more

• [News] Innolux Targets to Begin FOPLP Mass Production by Year-End
• [News] TSMC Reportedly Forms a Team on FOPLP Development, with Mini Line on the Road 

(Photo credit: ACMR)

TSMC continues to showcase its drive in the advanced packaging market. According to a report from MoneyDJ, TSMC has forecasted that CoWoS will remain in high demand through 2025, with potential for capacity to double in two consecutive years. TSMC is also entering the FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel-Level Packaging) space, a technology that OSATs and panel manufacturers have been developing for years, with a goal to launch it in three years.

TSMC’s stronghold on advanced packaging technologies has raised market concerns that OSATs may see their opportunities diminished as TSMC consolidates its market position.

During its earnings call, TSMC introduced “Foundry 2.0,” a new definition for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. This expanded definition now includes not only foundry services but also packaging, testing, photomask production, and other integrated component manufacturing, excluding memory production. TSMC further stated that this new definition will better reflect the company’s growing market opportunities and that the company will focus solely on cutting-edge back-end technologies.

Under this new definition, TSMC estimates the Foundry 2.0 industry will be nearly USD 250 billion in 2023, up from the previous estimate of USD 115 billion. With this new scope, the industry is expected to grow by 10% annually in 2024. Additionally, TSMC’s market share in Foundry 2.0 (logic semiconductor manufacturing) for 2023 is revised to 28%, with expectations for continued growth in 2024.

The sources cited by the report has pointed out that, observing TSMC’s process advancements, the 3nm process began mass production in 2022, with the 2nm process set for 2025, indicating a lengthening of the development cycle to three years.

Regarding the aforementioned nodes, advanced packaging may help enhance performance, reduce costs, and has the advantage of binding high-end products from top-tier clients. Additionally, the investment required for advanced packaging is significantly smaller compared to frontend technologies, making it a crucial area of focus.

The report continues to note that TSMC currently retains the majority of major CoWoS orders and collaborates with OSATs in the WoS segment. However, TSMC has reportedly yet finalized its CoW segment outsourcing orders.

Meanwhile, AMD and NVIDIA have reportedly turned to Amkor and ASE’s subsidiary, Siliconware, for CoWoS-related products, focusing on cost-sensitive high-performance products. Amkor is expected to supply about 70,000 to 80,000 units annually this year, while Siliconware can provide about 50,000 to 60,000 units.

Additionally, OSATs have been confined to mature IC FOPLP technologies for the past 7-8 years, whereas TSMC has announced it will launch its own FOPLP technology in three years.

TSMC’s planned FOPLP is a rectangular CoWoS-L concept, offering advantages in low unit cost and large-size packaging. However, it faces physical limitations such as issues in coating, spinning, and warping. TSMC, backed by a substantial equipment and materials supply chain, is well-positioned to address these challenges.

As for opportunities for other OSATs, the advanced packaging market is actually vast and can be broadly categorized into flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 2.5D/3D, and embedded die packaging.

These technologies can be integrated, and OSATs are not limited to TSMC’s top-tier Info, CoWoS, or SoIC technologies. OSATs can offer more cost-effective advanced packaging solutions compared to fabs, providing competitive alternatives in terms of cost and performance.

Read more

• [News] TSMC Pushes for FOPLP Mass Production by 2027, Reportedly Eyeing on Innolux’s Plant
• [News] TSMC Introduces “Foundry 2.0” to Include Packaging, Testing, Mask making and Others

(Photo credit: TSMC)

South Korean media reports that the main suppliers of artificial intelligence (AI) chip packaging are concentrated in TSMC and ASE Technology Holding Co., which have been actively expanding production to meet the growing market demand. Despite efforts to develop technology and invest, South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics have not been able to narrow the gap with TSMC and ASE.

According to the Chosun Ilbo, industry insiders indicated that TSMC is expanding its advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity by selecting a site in the southern region, while ASE also announced the construction of a second packaging and testing factory in California, USA, and plans to build another in Mexico. The rapid growth of the AI chip market highlights the increasing importance of semiconductor packaging and testing. As the benefits of semiconductor process miniaturization diminish and production costs rise, advanced packaging that can connect multiple components has become an ideal alternative solution. Some organizations predict that the semiconductor packaging market is expected to grow by more than 10% annually and expand to USD 90 billion by 2030.

Taiwanese companies like TSMC and ASE benefit a lot, almost monopolizing the contract manufacturing of AI chips for companies like NVIDIA and AMD. In terms of chip manufacturing, TSMC aims to double its CoWoS capacity from the previous year to meet increasing orders. TSMC recently announced plans to build two new advanced packaging factories in the southwest. The construction of the first factory was paused due to the discovery of ancient artifacts, but TSMC quickly sought a new site and announced an expansion of CoWoS facilities investment by 2025.

ASE, serving customers including Qualcomm, Intel and AMD, is also striving to increase equipment investment to meet rising orders. ASE, with the highest market share in the semiconductor packaging and testing field, is increasing its capacity and considering building a factory in Japan to match the growing demand. ASE’s CEO Wu Tianyu stated that they are looking for a location in Japan with a solid semiconductor ecosystem for the new factory.

Samsung has also announced packaging investment plans. The company intends to raise the investment in the new plant in Taylor, Texas, USA from USD 17 billion to more than USD 40 billion for the construction of an advanced packaging research and development center and facilities, in which it will allocate over KRW 2 trillion annually to expand advanced packaging production lines.

South Korean semiconductor back-end packaging and testing (OSAT) companies such as Hana Micron and Nepes are also striving for AI chip packaging orders based on technical development. Hana Micron, the leading OSAT company in South Korea, has announced its commitment to developing 2.5D AI semiconductor packaging. Nepes is developing Package on Package (PoP) technology, which integrates different semiconductors into one chip, with a target for commercial mass production in the second half of 2025.

Despite the efforts of South Korean companies, it is difficult to narrow the gap with Taiwanese companies in the short term. Taiwanese companies have actively developed advanced semiconductor packaging and commercializing CoWoS at a earlier time, while South Korean packaging companies lag in accumulated technologies. South Korean industry insiders point out that TSMC and ASE have been collaborating for over 30 years. Therefore, as TSMC secured a large number of AI chip orders, it would prove a boon to Taiwan’s packaging ecosystem. In contrast, South Korea’s packaging industry, which has long focused on the memory production market, still has a long way to go to expand its market and even compete with Taiwanese companies.

As the global vaccination rate rose, and border restrictions in Europe and North America eased, social activities also began to enter a period of recovery, with the consumer electronics market seemingly ready for the arrival of the traditional peak season in 2H21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. At the same time, however, the global supply chain was affected by delays in maritime transport, skyrocketing shipping costs, and component shortages, in addition to already-prohibitive price hikes for certain components in 1H21. Given the parallel rise in both material and manufacturing costs, the market for end products has not undergone the expected cyclical upturn in 2H21. Even so, the overall demand for and shipment of smartphones, notebook computers, and monitors experienced QoQ increases in 3Q21, thereby driving up businesses for major OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) companies. For 3Q21, the revenues of the top 10 OSAT companies reached US$8.89 billion, a 31.6% YoY increase.

Certain major OSAT companies experienced a slight dip in their capacity utilization rates due to the ongoing shortage of key components including chips and substrates, as well as the electricity rationing that limited both energy intensity and energy consumption in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong at the end of September. Nevertheless, this dip has had virtually no impact on the OSAT industry because certain OSAT companies shifted their operations to substrate-less packaging technologies and reallocated the previously affected capacities. Hence, TrendForce is bullish on the performance of the OSAT industry in 4Q21.

Market leaders ASE and Amkor registered revenues of US$2.15 billion and US$1.68 billion, which represent YoY increases of 41.3% and 24.2%, respectively, for 3Q21. While both companies had some of their capacities hindered due to the shortage of chips, lead frames, and substrates, ASE had its lead times further extended given that its Suzhou-based fab was affected by China’s power rationing. Notably, as the demand for packaging and testing smartphone APs, network chips, and automotive chips remains strong in 4Q21, ASE and Amkor will continue to expand in the 5G, IoT, and AI end-product markets in 2022.

SPIL is currently aiming to strengthen the R&D operations for advanced packaging technologies at its new fab in Erlin, Changhua, since it will be unlikely to compensate for the loss of smartphone AP packaging business from Huawei in the short run. SPIL’s revenue for 3Q21 reached US$1.04 billion, a 15.6% YoY increase. While KYEC previously suffered lowered capacity utilization due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has since made a gradual recovery and registered a revenue of US$323 million, a 28.5% YoY increase, for 3Q21, thanks to testing orders for 5G chips from Qualcomm and MediaTek. PTI, on the other hand, primarily benefitted from its DRAM packaging and testing business. The company posted a revenue of US$802 million, a 24.0% YoY increase, for 3Q21. Nonetheless, PTI’s memory packaging capacity will likely undergo a sharp decline going forward, as Intel gradually finalizes the sale of its Dalian fab to SK Hynix by 2025, and the agreement between Micron and PTI regarding the assembly and testing services PTI provides at Micron’s Xi’an fab expires in 2Q22. In response, PTI reallocated some capacities at its new fab in Hsinchu to other strategic priorities such as CIS packaging and FOPLP technologies in 3Q21.

Major Chinese OSAT companies JCET and Hua Tian continued to benefit from China’s pursuit of domestic semiconductor substitutes. The two companies expanded their supply of OSAT services for 5G smartphones, base stations, automotive chips, and consumer electronics. As a result, JCET and Hua Tian registered revenues of US$1.25 billion and US$502 million, representing YoY growths of 27.5% and 57.6%, respectively, for 3Q21. Owing to strong sales by its client AMD this year, TFME recorded a revenue of US$636 million, an impressive 59.8% YoY increase, which represents the highest revenue growth among the top 10 OSAT companies in 3Q21.

Although ChipMOS and Chipbond, which specialize in packaging and testing display panel driver ICs, were affected by the slight drop in small-sized TV panel shipment in 3Q21, they were able to compensate for this loss owing to the gradual increase in packaging and testing demand for such driver ICs as TDDI and DDI. This increase can primarily be attributed to the growing demand for mid- and large-sized TV panels, as well as the ramp-up of OLED smartphone panels, which certain smartphone models began to adopt. For 3Q21, ChipMOS and Chipbond grew their respectively revenue by 32.5% YoY and 29.5% YoY to about US$257 million and US$255 million. At the same time, as IC design companies from the upstream supply chain redirected certain orders to ChipMOS and Chipbond in response to China’s power rationing at the end of September, these two companies will likely reach new revenue records in 4Q21.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

Despite the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic that swept Taiwan in 2Q21, the domestic OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) industry remained largely intact, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Global sales of large-sized TVs were brisk thanks to major sporting events such as the Tokyo Olympics and UEFA Euro 2020. Likewise, the proliferation of WFH and distance learning applications propelled the demand for IT products, while the automotive semiconductor and data center markets also showed upward trajectories. Taking into account the above factors, OSAT companies raised their quotes in response, resulting in a 26.4% YoY increase in the top 10 OSAT companies’ revenue to US$7.88 billion for 2Q21.

TrendForce indicates that, in light of the ongoing global chip shortage and the growing production capacities of foundries/IDMs in the upstream semiconductor supply chain, OSAT companies gradually increased their CAPEX and expanded their fabs and equipment in order to meet the persistently growing client demand. However, the OSAT industry still faces an uncertain future in 2H21 due to the Delta variant’s global surge and the health crisis taking place in Southeast Asia, home to a significant number of OSAT facilities.

Regarding the performances of individual OSAT companies in 2Q21, market leader ASE and Amkor each recorded revenues of US$1.86 billion and US$1.41 billion, which represented YoY growths of 35.1% and 19.9%, respectively, for the quarter. Both companies benefitted from strong demand for 5G smartphones, notebook computers, automotive chips, and networking chips. In particular, ASE allocated some of its capacities to KYEC (which suffered a drop in its IC testing capacity due to the pandemic) and therefore experienced a surge in its revenue. Also posting a revenue growth in 2Q21 was Amkor, which took second place on the top 10 list owing to the high demand for automotive chips, HPC chips, and 5G handsets released by Apple and other smartphone brands.

SPIL’s revenue for 2Q21 reached US$931 million, a modest 2.3% YoY increase. The company’s relatively muted growth can be attributed to the fact that smartphone IC packaging demand from Huawei, one of SPIL’s major clients, had plunged, while other smartphone brands did not place orders sufficient for making up for this plunge. As previously mentioned, some of KYEC’s testing capacities were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a 6.8% YoY increase in KYEC’s revenue to a mere US$274 million for 2Q21. PTI gradually recovered from difficulties resulting from the closure of its Japanese and Singaporean subsidiaries. For 2Q21, PTI’s revenue reached US$742 million, a 14.3% YoY increase.

Regarding Chinese OSAT companies, JCET and Hua Tian both expanded their capacities in order to meet the massive demand from the domestic 5G telecom, base station, consumer electronics, and automotive markets. While JCET and Hua Tian continue to operate in accordance with China’s goal of achieving domestic semiconductor substitutes, the two companies’ revenues for 2Q21 reached US$1.1 billion and US$467 million, which represented YoY growths of 25% and 64.7%, respectively. It should be pointed out that TFME also benefitted from the aforementioned market demand. TFME’s revenue reached US$591 million, a 68.3% YoY increase, which was the highest increase among the top 10 OSAT companies in 2Q21. TFME’s impressive growth took place primarily because the company is the main OSAT provider for AMD. As AMD captured some of Intel’s market share, both AMD and, by extension, TFME, experienced a resultant revenue growth.

Finally, ChipMOS and Chipbond, which specialize in panel driver IC packaging and testing, benefitted from major sporting events such as the Tokyo Olympics and UEFA Euro 2020. Given the skyrocketing demand for display panels, IC testing demand for driver ICs, including TDDI and DDI, also underwent a corresponding rise. Notably, due to a shortage of packaging materials, ChipMOS raised the price of its packaging services for memory products and subsequently registered a spike in both revenue and gross profits. While both companies’ revenues reached US$251 million, ChipMOS and Chipbond each registered revenue growths of 38.4% YoY and 49.6% YoY, respectively.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com