According to the latest panel prices released by TrendForce in late January, panel manufacturers continue to implement large-scale production cuts and maintenance plans. Additionally, the shortage of upstream materials for polarizers is affecting the panel prices. 32-inch TV panel prices have seen an increase. Meanwhile, the prices of mainstream sizes for monitor panels are expected to stabilize. Here are the details:

TV

Despite being a slow season for demand in January, panel manufacturers are actively trying to reverse the trend of TV panel price declines through extensive production cuts and maintenance plans.

Recent observations indicate that some Chinese brand customers are increasing their stockpile demand for the North American tax refund season in March-April.

On the other hand, the disruption in the supply of upstream polarizer materials due to the earthquake in Japan at the beginning of the month is also contributing to a stabilization in panel prices. Therefore, the price trend for TV panels in January is expected to see a rise in 32-inch panels, while 43-inch to 75-inch panels are expected to stabilize.

Monitor

Entering January, despite the onset of a slow season for demand, panel manufacturers are encouraging customers to stock up early due to the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year in February.

Observations indicate that there is limited room for additional orders in the latter part of January. The shortage of upstream polarizer materials is also expected to impact some VA panels. Therefore, in terms of monitor panel prices for January, mainstream sizes such as 21.5 inches, 23.8 inches, and 27 inches are expected to stabilize, while Open Cell panels are expected to have a downward space of USD 0.1 to 0.2.

NB

After entering the first quarter of 2024, laptop panel demand has significantly weakened, as some customers increased their stockpiles at the end of the previous year. Brand customers are requesting panel manufacturers to lower prices, and panel manufacturers are adopting a relatively soft stance, resulting in downward pressure on panel prices.

Observations of laptop panel price trends in January show that 16:10 models, due to their higher unit prices, still have room for continued convergence with 16:9 models. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of 14-inch 16:10 models will decrease by USD 0.2, and 16-inch 16:10 models will decrease by USD 0.3, with a larger decline. Mainstream 16:9 IPS models are expected to decrease by USD 0.1, while 16:9 TN models are expected to remain stable.

Due to weak demand in the mobile phone market, the decline in prices of mobile phone panels, especially AMOLED panels, has accelerated this year. Under overcapacity pressure, the price decline has exceeded expectations.

According to our survey, some brands actively introduced Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels in the second half of last year, trying to narrow the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels and increase usage rates through DDI cost optimization. However, the inventory level of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram is high, and the price decline has also accelerated, while also narrowing the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels.

The current prices update:

• Rigid AMOLED panels are around USD 18-20.
• Flexible AMOLED panels with Ram are priced at around USD 25 or even lower, which is a significant drop from the average of USD 30 or more last year.
• The above price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has led to a price reduction of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, which are currently priced at around USD 20-22.

The significant price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has dimmed the cost advantage of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, and currently only Xiaomi has adopted them. Other first-tier brand customers remain cautious.

In addition, due to the momentum of flexible AMOLED panel price declines, whether the price of rigid AMOLED panels will follow suit has become a challenge for SDC. We believe that SDC should follow the price reduction strategy and may even approach the level of USD 15 in the second half of the year after abandoning the USD 20 threshold.

However, there are two reasons why we believe SDC may find it difficult to reverse the current situation even with a price reduction strategy. These reasons include:

• Weak overall smartphone demand this year.
• Chinese brand customers will gradually adjust their procurement strategy to focus on domestic panel factories. For SDC, how to dispose of rigid AMOLED panel capacity in the medium to long term will be a major issue.

Due to the sustained pressure on AMOLED panel prices, LTPS LCD panel prices are also forced to continue to decline, and it is expected that prices will continue to drop from the current range of USD 10-15 and may even fall below USD 10.

On the other hand, because LTPS LCD prices have approached a-Si LCD panel prices, it has aroused the interest of some brand customers. Under the overall weak market conditions, adopting low-cost LTPS LCD specifications may help improve revenue performance or stimulate demand by upgrading from HD to FHD specifications at the same price.