TV shipment performance in 2022 will return to a pre-pandemic cycle but the Russian-Ukrainian war has indirectly led to rising inflation. With consumer spending unchanged, expenditures on non-essentials are bound to feel the squeeze. Russia accounts for 82% of TV shipments in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) region and Ukraine also maintains a 12% market share. As the war drags on, the region will bleed 1.5 to 2 million TV sets in the short term, and TV shipments may fall by more than 3 million sets in the medium term. Although demand in the CIS region is not positive, Southeast Asia and emerging markets were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, deferring a portion of demand. Overall, TV shipments in 2022 will adjust downward to 215 million units, or 2.4% YoY and a decrease of 0.7% from the previous 2022 forecast.

According to TrendForce statistics, TV shipments in the CIS region account for 4% of the global total, of which 60% consists of 32-inch and 43-inch models. The two major TV brands, Samsung and LG, account for nearly 50% of the combined market in the CIS region. At present, due to factors such as geopolitics and economic sanctions, shipments to Russian factories for back-end TV assembly have been halted and Samsung has gone one step further by halting sales.

Samsung and LGE account for more than 50% of CIS region market share, hardest hit by the Russian-Ukrainian war

Russian demand for TV sets falls at 6-7 million units per year. Due to high tariffs, TV giants Samsung and LGE have been encouraged to set up TV assembly plants in Russia which, not only reduce tariff costs, but also enjoy the benefits of zero-tariff exports to Ukraine.

Samsung and LGE originally sent imports from South Korea to Russia in the form of CKD (Complete knock down) in order to assemble TV sets in local factories and enjoy duty-free benefits. However, the war has suspended all shipments to Russia.

It is worth mentioning, as damage has been dealt to the two Korean brands, Chinese brand Haier has chosen to accelerate its deployment in the Russian market. Haier is expected to successfully occupy third place in TV sales in the CIS region with a market share of 11% in 2022. In 2021 Haier’s shipments in the CIS region reached 800,000 units. In 2022, it has an opportunity to cannibalize lost market share from Korean brands with a shipment target of one million units. Judging from the TV production capacity of local factories, volume maxes out at 2 million units. Haier is forecast to become the biggest winner of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Soaring shipping costs portend possible further downgrade of 2022 TV shipments

Due to factors such as reduced shipments and inventory control, the two Korean brands have gradually adjusted their purchase volume of TV panels in the near term, relegating 32- and 43-inch TV panels, units that had an opportunity to increase in price in April 2022, to a downward price trend again. Due to falling demand for TVs and IT, concerns over panel overcapacity are overwhelming and some panel manufacturers have decided to begin gradual capacity adjustment in April 2022.

Of the challenges plaguing the TV market in 2022, in addition to the existing problem of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising global inflation also add variables to demand. In addition, cargo container shortages and port congestion increased shipping costs significantly in 2021, indirectly inflating the cost of TV sets with costs rising as TV sizes grow. Even though current panel pricing has dropped by 30% to 40% compared with its high point in 2021, no expected reduction in freight costs in 2022 will inevitably affect the scale of branded promotions and stocking during the peak season of overseas markets in 2H22. Therefore, there is still room for TV shipments in 2022 to be revised downward.

（Image credit: iStock）

Yearly gaming monitor (defined as having a refresh rate of at least 100Hz) shipment reached 18.4 million units in 2020, a 105% increase YoY, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. This growth took place because monitor brands and panel suppliers poured considerable resources into this product category and because the stay-at-home economy generated a high demand for gaming monitors. TrendForce expects the gaming monitor market to remain in an upward trajectory in 2021, with a forecasted yearly shipment of about 25.9 million units, a 41% increase YoY.

TrendForce analyst Anita Wang indicates that, among the top five largest gaming monitor brands in 2020, MSI registered a remarkable 114% YoY growth in its gaming monitor shipment for the year. Although the company had primarily focused on curved gaming monitors, it began diversifying its offerings and expanding its lineup of flat IPS monitors in 2020. MSI’s 114% YoY growth far exceeded the market average and was the highest among the top five brands.

Thanks to Asus’ large-scale expansion of its gaming product lineup and an aggressive effort to procure components since early 2020, Asus’ yearly shipment of gaming monitors reached a 108% increase YoY. At the same time, Asus’ performance in the gaming monitor segment also resulted in the highest total yearly monitor shipment in the company’s history. In terms of monitor shipment (which includes both gaming and non-gaming monitors), Asus’ YoY % growth was the highest among the top 10 brands.

AOC/Philips saw a 102% YoY growth in their gaming monitor shipment for 2020, due to the high sales of their mainstream curved gaming monitors and flat IPS monitors, both of which contributed to an increase in AOC/Philips’ market share. At the same time, AOC/Philips is set to release high-end Mini LED models this year, giving them a more comprehensive monitor portfolio.

On the other hand, with regards to gaming monitor panels, SDC (Samsung Display Co.) led the field with a 35% market share in 2020. However, as SDC makes a gradual exit from the panel manufacturing business this year, the gaming monitor panel market has become a hotly contested sector for the remaining suppliers. In particular, AUO, which was ranked second in terms of market share in 2020, is expected to leapfrog its competitors and score the highest share in the gaming monitor panel market this year as it continues to expand the volume of panels that it supplies to gaming monitor manufacturers.

(Cover image source: MSI Co., Ltd.)

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com