In November 2023, China witnessed a remarkable 1050% surge in the import value of crucial chip manufacturing lithography equipment from the Netherlands, the primary exporter of photolithography equipment, according to the South China Morning Post.

This surge, measured in terms of value, indicates that Chinese semiconductor companies have managed to maintain a channel for ordering advanced equipment despite the tightened export restrictions imposed by the United States

Lithography equipment holds a paramount position among the ten types of equipment essential in the manufacturing process of integrated circuits (ICs).

Reportedly, despite substantial financial investments, China has been acknowledged to lag behind in this technology for many years. Despite allocating significant funds, the country has still struggled to narrow the gap with leading enterprises in this crucial aspect of IC manufacturing.

Meanwhile, in October, the U.S. Department of Commerce expanded its export control regulations on China, with the new provisions taking effect from November 2023.

These regulations specifically restrict the Dutch company ASML from selling certain immersion Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment to Chinese facilities engaged in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Consequently, China’s import of equipment has seen a consecutive surge for nearly two months.

In November, China imported 16 lithography equipment units from the Netherlands, valued at USD 762.7 Million, marking a tenfold year-on-year increase. By comparison, in October, China imported 21 lithography equipment units valued at USD 672.5 million, with an average price difference of 46% per unit.

In November of this year, China imported a total of 42 lithography equipment, valued at USD 816.8 million, including 15 units from Japan. When combined, the imports from the Netherlands and Japan accounted for almost the entire amount spent by China on lithography equipment in November.

In response to the U.S. restrictions, ASML’s CEO, Peter Wennink, previously stated that these limitations would exclude the vast majority of Chinese customers. This exclusion is due to the fact that these customers are involved in mature or traditional semiconductor manufacturing, specifically in the production of semiconductors at 28nm and above.

Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Senior Researcher and Head of Technology and Geopolitics Projects at the Berlin-based think tank “Stiftung Neue Verantwortung” (New Responsibility Foundation), mentioned that the impact on sales would not be immediate following the new U.S. restrictions.

As per the report from South China Morning Post, this is because ASML has a lead time of approximately 18 months. This implies that the equipment shipped in the fourth quarter of 2023 would have been ordered in the second or third quarter of 2022, and ASML would apply for export licenses at some point thereafter.

Read more

• [News] EUV as a Strategic Asset in the Most Advanced Processes: Progress in Intel/TSMC/Samsung’s Adoptions
• [News] Reports of SMEE Successfully Developing 28nm Lithography Machine, Original Source Deleted Shortly After

(Photo credit: ASML)

From the Entity List in 2020 to the Chips and Science Act of 2022, the US government has been tightening its grip on China’s semiconductor industry by blocking the export of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The pressing question on everyone’s mind is: Will China’s semiconductor industry crumble under this pressure?

The answer, based on recent market reactions, is a resounding no.

Riding the Waves through Headwinds

Despite international semiconductor equipment manufacturers facing production cutbacks, China’s semiconductor equipment industry is thriving. In the first quarter, Naura, the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, reported a whopping 68.56%-87.29% increase in revenue, with a 171.24% to 200.3% increase in net profit. This has spurred growth across the entire Chinese A-share market for semiconductor equipment concept stocks such as Piotech, PNC process System, Advanced Micro, ACM Research and Hwatsing Technology.

This growth highlights a great leap forward in semiconductor process technology. Despite the adverse effects of the US’s broad-based restrictions, they have nonetheless created a favorable environment for testing and substitution opportunities. This, in turn, has enabled Chinese manufacturers of semiconductor equipment to increase their market share in the area of established semiconductor processes.

Full Speed Ahead: Aiming High for 5nm

In key semiconductor manufacturing processes such as thin film deposition, etching, ion implantation, CMP, and cleaning, Chinese manufacturers have already moved beyond traditional equipment development cycles and are progressing towards advanced process technology at full speed.

According to TrendForce, Chinese semiconductor equipment companies such as Naura and Advanced Micro(AMEC) are capable of supporting 28/14 nm in some process steps, and have even tentatively established their presence in 5 nm process technology.

Our summary identifies the main players to watch in thin film deposition, etching, and EUV:

• Thin film deposition: Naura

Naura has achieved full coverage of PVD, CVD, and ALD product lines, with product lines matching international leaders such as Applied Materials, Lam, and Tokyo Electron. Naura has unique competitive advantages in the PVD field, with over 20% of its PVD equipment being supplied to Chinese 12-inch production lines such as YMTC(Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd), making it the second-largest PVD equipment supplier after Applied Materials.

Additionally, since 2012, Naura has sold over 200 PVD equipment, gradually achieving their goals for equipment substitution.

• Etching: AMEC and Naura

As the leading CCP etching machine, AMEC has successfully penetrated TSMC’s 5nm production line, becoming the first domestic etching equipment to break through in the advanced process area. AMEC has also achieved large-scale adoption in 64-layer, 128-layer 3D NAND process, and 1x DRAM process. These main product portfolios contributed to the company’s 47.3% YoY revenue growth rate in the first half of 2022. In addition, AMEC’s etching equipment also enjoys a high gross profit margin of 46.02%.

On the other hand, Naura is at the forefront of ICP silicon etching equipment. Its first-generation 12-inch etching equipment underwent certification for 90-65nm at the SMIC’s fab in Beijing in 2008. In addition, with the support of national research projects, Naura’s ICP etching machine has also broken through 14nm barriers and been adopted by mainstream foundries.

• Photolithography: Shanghai MicroElectronics Equipment(SMEE)

Photolithography is a critical process that China is strategically including in their semiconductor industry plans. They’re aiming to develop 28nm immersion exposure machines and core components through collaborative efforts: SMEE will lead the overall design and integration, with five or more companies providing key components.

Although SMEE has preliminary DUV exposure machine technology, it’s limited to more mature processes on 8-inch and 12-inch wafers at 90nm, 110nm, and 280nm, leaving a significant gap with international leaders.

From Toddler to Major Player

Although China’s equipment manufacturers are still at their toddler stage, the increasing momentum suggests that they will continue to make significant progress. Assuming that China’s policy support towards the development of 14nm and below semiconductor processes remains unchanged in the coming years, it is highly likely that the country’s market will fundamentally experience a transformation.

At this point, China’s semiconductor industry will enter a new era of high-speed growth, paving the way for the country to become a major player at global level. As China’s domestic market grasps the technology and commercial logic along the way, it will potentially have more influence over the global supply chain, as a result triggering a shift in the worldwide semiconductor industry in the long run.