Last week, a series of U.S. employment data fueled concerns about a potential economic recession, causing the S&P 500 to drop 4.2%, marking its worst weekly performance since January 2022. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell, reflecting market expectations of a more aggressive rate cut path for the rest of the year, with the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread turning positive. The U.S. dollar index also declined as expectations for more significant Federal Reserve rate cuts rose. Below is a recap of key economic data from last week:

• United States ISM PMI: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 47.2 (previous 46.8), remaining in contraction territory for the fifth consecutive month. This continued to reflect the restrictive monetary policy and uncertainties around the U.S. election, dampening corporate investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. Services PMI for August was 51.5 (previous 51.4), marking two consecutive months of expansion, with all sub-indices in expansionary territory.

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• United States Employment Report: The U.S. unemployment rate for August was 4.2% (previous 4.3%), in line with market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 (previous 89,000), falling short of market expectations of 164,000. Additionally, nonfarm payrolls for June and July were revised downward, signaling further cooling in the U.S. labor market.

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• Canada Monetary Policy: On September 4, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive rate cut since June. Although inflation has returned to the target range, the BoC has begun to express concerns about the risk of deflation due to economic weakness. As a result, markets now expect that if the Canadian economy continues to deteriorate, the BoC may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting approach.

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Key Data to Watch This Week

• China CPI (September 9): China’s July CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year (previous 0.2%), driven primarily by food prices due to extreme weather. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was 0.4% (previous 0.6%). The market expects August CPI to rise to 0.7%, supported by seasonal demand during the summer and government policies promoting service consumption.

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• United States CPI (September 11): U.S. CPI for July increased 2.9% year-on-year (previous 3.0%), while core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.2% (previous 3.3%), both in line with market expectations and marking the lowest growth since April 2021. According to the Cleveland Fed’s CPI forecast, August CPI is expected to fall to 2.56%, with core CPI projected to ease to 3.21%.

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• Eurozone Monetary Policy (September 12): The ECB left rates unchanged during its July meeting, mainly due to rising wages, which kept services inflation elevated. However, recent data now supports a rate cut, with August’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) falling to 2.2% year-on-year (previous 2.6%). Additionally, adjusted wage growth, which has been a key driver of inflation, dropped to 3.5% in the second quarter (previous 4.7%). As a result, markets widely expect the ECB to cut rates again in September.

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Summary: 

• Manufacturing PMI slight uptick
• New orders and production sub-indices continue to decline
• Uneven demand recovery across sectors

 

The U.S. manufacturing PMI showed a slight uptick in August, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on September 3rd while overall consumer demand continued to weaken. The manufacturing PMI for August registered at 47.2, a modest increase of 0.4 points from July, but it remained in contraction territory for the fifth consecutive month.

 

In terms of the component indices, the new orders and production indices fell to 44.6 (from 47.4) and 44.8 (from 45.9), respectively, while increases in the employment and inventory indices helped lift the overall PMI slightly. This reflects the ongoing restrictive monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, which have dampened corporate investment sentiment. The persistent weakness in demand has further driven down production, putting additional pressure on corporate profits.

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However, not all industries are facing weak demand prospects. For instance, respondents in the food & tobacco, and computer & electronics industries noted that demand has shifted from the slowdown in the first half of the year to stable growth. Particularly, the computer & electronics sector was the only industry among the 17 covered by the survey that saw increases across new orders, production, backlogs, and inventory indices, indicating a more robust recovery in demand.

On the other hand, industries such as machinery, paper, and chemicals reported that various uncertainties are causing demand to cool, highlighting the uneven nature of demand recovery across sectors.

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As the unwinding of yen carry trades came to an end, the market returned to a more stable state, though it remains highly sensitive to economic data. The S&P 500’s gains narrowed due to underperformance in some tech stocks, while it also faced the challenge of reaching new highs. Meanwhile, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields edged higher due to shifting expectations around rate cuts, though the overall yield spread narrowed to a range of -10 to 0 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index also saw a slight increase, driven by reduced expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Economic Data Review for Last Week:

• U.S. PCE (July): The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year (same as the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (up from 0.1%). Within the details, goods inflation was flat at 0% year-on-year (up from -0.2%), while services inflation increased 3.7% year-on-year (down from 3.8%), as both factors have a limited impact on overall inflation decline. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (also unchanged), both in line with market expectations.

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• China CPI (July): The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year (up from 0.2%), marking the sixth consecutive month of positive growth and exceeding market expectations. The increase was mainly driven by food prices, which were affected by extreme weather conditions. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% in the previous period.

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Key Data to Watch This Week:

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (9/3): The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July came in at 46.8 (down from 48.5). The decline in July mainly reflects reduced investment in manufacturing due to high interest rates, along with continued weakness in goods demand, leading companies’ production and revenue to contract prompting them to implement cost-saving measures such as layoffs and hiring freezes. The market expects the Manufacturing PMI to recover slightly to 47.5, but it is still expected to remain in contraction territory.

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• Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Meeting (9/4): The Bank of Canada (BOC) has cut rates by 50 basis points since June. As inflation continues to decline, the BOC has increasingly shifted its focus to cope with economic weakness. The market expects the BOC to announce another 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, with two more cuts likely by the end of the year.

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• U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (9/5): The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (NMI) for July was 51.4 (up from 48.8). The rebound in July mainly reflects strong business activity, although respondents indicated potential challenges ahead, and they remain cautious due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The market expects the NMI to decline slightly to 50.9, but it is still anticipated to remain in expansion territory.

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• U.S. Employment Situation Report (9/6): In the household survey, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July (up from 4.1%), mainly reflecting an increase in labor supply and reduced hiring by companies. In the establishment survey, nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July (down from 206,000), significantly below the 12-month average of 215,000. Overall, the labor market appears to have returned to a balanced state, with no signs of widespread layoffs, though ongoing developments should be closely monitored. The market expects the unemployment rate to fall back to 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 164,000 in August.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its July Services PMI report on August 6th, revealing that the Services PMI rose from 48.8 in the previous month to 51.6, surpassing market expectations of 51.0.

The expansion was driven by 10 industries, including leisure and hospitality, accommodation and food services, financial services, and healthcare.

Respondents indicated that sales figures and customer numbers were flat compared to the same period last year, with rising prices dampening consumer demand. On the other hand, eight sectors, including agriculture, real estate, retail, and information technology, experienced contraction. Respondents attributed this to the U.S. election, price pressures, and high interest rates impacting long-term purchasing decisions.

In the component indices, the Business Activity Index increased from 49.6 in the previous month to 54.5, with respondents generally seeing business activity as strong, though signs of future challenges remain.

The New Orders Index rose from 47.3 to 52.4, indicating improved demand. The Employment Index, closely watched by the market, rose from 46.1 to 51.1, marking its first expansion after five consecutive months of contraction. Respondents noted that companies are actively filling vacancies and training the workforce required for the future.

Overall, the performance of the services sector in July contrasts sharply with the stagnation in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, similar to manufacturing, consumer spending remains constrained by price pressures, while the labor market continues to slow but has yet to show significant deterioration. According to data from Fed Watch, the market broadly expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 0.5% in September, with a total of three to four rate cuts anticipated throughout the year.

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