The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly increased in August, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 12. The PPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month (previously 0%), exceeding market expectations of 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased by 1.7% (previously 2.2%), falling short of the expected 1.8%, marking the lowest annual gain so far this year.

Breaking down the details, final demand goods prices remained flat month-over-month (previously up 0.6%), primarily due to a decline in energy prices, which dropped by 0.9% (previously up 1.8%). Excluding food and energy, prices rose by 0.2% for the month, posting the same increase as in the prior month.

Final demand services prices rose by 0.4% (previously down 0.3%), mainly driven by increases in other service categories, with guestroom rental prices contributing the most, surging by 4.8%. This mirrors the trend seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released a day earlier.

Overall, while the PPI demonstrated moderate growth in August, the Fed has shifted its focus on inflation towards the labor market. As a result, the inflation influence on future rate cuts has diminished. The market continues to anticipate a total of four 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout 2024, with expectations unchanged.

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China’s CPI recorded positive growth for the seventh consecutive month, rising by 0.6% year-on-year in August, up from 0.5% in the previous month, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9. However, the CPI is still below market expectations of 0.7%.

This rise was mainly driven by continuous increases in food prices driven by high temperatures and heavy rainfall, which surged by 2.8% (previously 0%), contributing 0.51 percentage points to the overall CPI growth.

However, non-food prices fell from 0.7% in July to 0.4%, and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by only 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the prior month. August’s PPI reflected similar trends, with China’s PPI declining by 1.8% year-on-year, widening from a 0.8% drop in July. This marks the 23rd consecutive month of contraction, highlighting weak domestic demand and increasing deflationary risks.

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) on August 13th, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.2% for July, lower than the previous month’s 2.7% and below market expectations of 2.3%. The month-over-month increase was 0.1%, also below the prior month and market expectations of 0.2%.

Breaking it down by components, the final demand for goods rose by 0.6% month-over-month, with food and energy prices up by 0.6% and 1.9%, respectively. However, final demand services decreased by 0.2% month-over-month, with trade services—which reflect the margins of wholesalers and retailers—declining by 1.3%, offsetting the gains in food and energy. Excluding food, energy, and trade, the core PPI saw a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, up by 0.1% from the previous month, while the month-over-month increase was 0.3%, up by 0.2% compared to the previous month.

Overall, inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to ease, with service costs experiencing their decline for the first time this year. For the Federal Reserve, this development allows for a greater focus on the labor market, providing additional flexibility and leverage in determining the extent of future rate cuts. While the market has largely priced in a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, there remains significant debate over whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, with the final decision likely hinging on upcoming CPI and employment data.

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The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the CPI and PPI data on August 9. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.5% year-on-year, higher than the 0.2% growth in the previous month and above the market expectation of 0.3%. This marks the six consecutive months of positive growth. The increase was primarily driven by rising food prices due to weather conditions, which accounted for approximately 50% of the CPI’s annual growth in July. Excluding the relatively volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% in the previous month.

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On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching the decline of the previous month and performing better than the market expectation of -0.9%. However, this marks the 22nd consecutive month of contraction. According to Dong Li-juan, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, the decline was mainly due to weak market demand and falling international commodity prices.

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Overall, the domestic demand in China remains weak. Although the Chinese government committed to revitalizing domestic demand during the 3rd Plenary Session and the Politburo meeting in July, so far, the government has only lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and has not introduced detailed or large-scale fiscal stimulus measures. This presents a significant challenge to achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% through increased domestic demand.