China has yet to shake off the short-term risk of deflation, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 9.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October , marking a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, CPI decreased by 0.3%, reflecting a similar 0.3 percentage point drop.

Breaking down the components, food prices—a key driver of CPI growth—slowed to a 2.9% year-on-year increase, representing a 0.4 percentage point deceleration. Non-food prices, however, recorded a deeper year-on-year decline of 0.3%, mainly due to falling international crude oil prices. Service-related prices edged up by 0.2 percentage points to a 0.4% annual growth rate, driven by a temporary boost in travel costs during the National Day holiday, but still registered a 0.4% year-on-year decline. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose by just 0.2%, a modest increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period.

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On the Producer Price Index (PPI) side, China’s PPI contracted by 2.9% year-on-year in October, with a marginal decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The month-on-month figure showed a decline of 0.1%, albeit an improvement of 0.5 percentage points.

The breakdown indicates that producer prices for means of production remained down 3.3% year-on-year, though month-on-month growth of 0.1% suggests short-term support from recent stimulus measures targeting construction-related industries. Conversely, prices for consumer goods saw a broader decline, with a year-on-year decrease widening by 0.3 percentage points to 1.6%. Among durable goods, the decline in automobile factory prices expanded to 3.1%, while prices for computers, communications, and electronic products contracted by 2.9%.

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Overall, the impact of China’s September monetary easing policies appears limited, as consumer confidence remains weak and spending sluggish. This continued weakness has forced businesses to further lower prices, compressing margins and sustaining deflationary pressures in the economy.

The Chinese Government Passes a 10 Trillion Yuan Fiscal Policy

A day before the data release, China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee approved a fiscal package totaling approximately 10 trillion yuan. This package aims to raise the annual ceiling for special local government bonds by 2 trillion yuan over the next three years to replace implicit local government debts. Additionally, 800 billion yuan per year over the next five years will be allocated to addressing these hidden debts through special bond issuance.

However, these measures primarily address debts accumulated through Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), which local governments have used to fund infrastructure projects and meet central GDP growth targets. By not appearing on local government balance sheets, these debts have enabled governments to bypass borrowing limits, leading to a massive buildup of hidden liabilities.

Banks often repackage LGFV bonds as high-yield wealth management products sold to domestic savers. Even though these savers know the low or non-existent economic returns of many of these projects, they continue to invest, confident that the central government will ultimately guarantee repayment. This has led to broad participation in what could be described as a “Ponzi scheme” with little regard for moral hazard.

The results are evident: the persistent decline in China’s real estate market appears to be leading the country toward a balance sheet recession, with private consumption and investment weighed down by high private sector debt repayment pressures. Although the government is aware of the issue, its approach has been largely confined to “new debt to replace old debt,” preventing meaningful economic recovery and efficient capital allocation.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly increased in August, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 12. The PPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month (previously 0%), exceeding market expectations of 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased by 1.7% (previously 2.2%), falling short of the expected 1.8%, marking the lowest annual gain so far this year.

Breaking down the details, final demand goods prices remained flat month-over-month (previously up 0.6%), primarily due to a decline in energy prices, which dropped by 0.9% (previously up 1.8%). Excluding food and energy, prices rose by 0.2% for the month, posting the same increase as in the prior month.

Final demand services prices rose by 0.4% (previously down 0.3%), mainly driven by increases in other service categories, with guestroom rental prices contributing the most, surging by 4.8%. This mirrors the trend seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released a day earlier.

Overall, while the PPI demonstrated moderate growth in August, the Fed has shifted its focus on inflation towards the labor market. As a result, the inflation influence on future rate cuts has diminished. The market continues to anticipate a total of four 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout 2024, with expectations unchanged.

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China’s CPI recorded positive growth for the seventh consecutive month, rising by 0.6% year-on-year in August, up from 0.5% in the previous month, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9. However, the CPI is still below market expectations of 0.7%.

This rise was mainly driven by continuous increases in food prices driven by high temperatures and heavy rainfall, which surged by 2.8% (previously 0%), contributing 0.51 percentage points to the overall CPI growth.

However, non-food prices fell from 0.7% in July to 0.4%, and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by only 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the prior month. August’s PPI reflected similar trends, with China’s PPI declining by 1.8% year-on-year, widening from a 0.8% drop in July. This marks the 23rd consecutive month of contraction, highlighting weak domestic demand and increasing deflationary risks.

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) on August 13th, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.2% for July, lower than the previous month’s 2.7% and below market expectations of 2.3%. The month-over-month increase was 0.1%, also below the prior month and market expectations of 0.2%.

Breaking it down by components, the final demand for goods rose by 0.6% month-over-month, with food and energy prices up by 0.6% and 1.9%, respectively. However, final demand services decreased by 0.2% month-over-month, with trade services—which reflect the margins of wholesalers and retailers—declining by 1.3%, offsetting the gains in food and energy. Excluding food, energy, and trade, the core PPI saw a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, up by 0.1% from the previous month, while the month-over-month increase was 0.3%, up by 0.2% compared to the previous month.

Overall, inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to ease, with service costs experiencing their decline for the first time this year. For the Federal Reserve, this development allows for a greater focus on the labor market, providing additional flexibility and leverage in determining the extent of future rate cuts. While the market has largely priced in a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, there remains significant debate over whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, with the final decision likely hinging on upcoming CPI and employment data.

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The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the CPI and PPI data on August 9. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.5% year-on-year, higher than the 0.2% growth in the previous month and above the market expectation of 0.3%. This marks the six consecutive months of positive growth. The increase was primarily driven by rising food prices due to weather conditions, which accounted for approximately 50% of the CPI’s annual growth in July. Excluding the relatively volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% in the previous month.

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On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching the decline of the previous month and performing better than the market expectation of -0.9%. However, this marks the 22nd consecutive month of contraction. According to Dong Li-juan, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, the decline was mainly due to weak market demand and falling international commodity prices.

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Overall, the domestic demand in China remains weak. Although the Chinese government committed to revitalizing domestic demand during the 3rd Plenary Session and the Politburo meeting in July, so far, the government has only lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and has not introduced detailed or large-scale fiscal stimulus measures. This presents a significant challenge to achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% through increased domestic demand.