Insights
Polysilicon
In the polysilicon market, post-holiday trading sentiment remains subdued, with overall deliveries primarily focusing on delivering previous orders. After the recent price hikes for polysilicon, trading activity has been tepid. Ingot manufacturers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed.
Polysilicon output is expected to see a slight rebound of nearly 2% this month, reaching about 130,000 to 140,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may decrease further, and surplus supply could potentially become more serious this month.
Polysilicon prices are likely to stabilize this month under manufacturers’ firm stance, with future observations focusing on capacity adjustments and the impact of pre-stocking for the polysilicon futures market on the supply-demand balance.
Wafers
On the supply side, wafer production continues its downward trend month-on-month, estimated to be in the 48-49 GW range. On the demand side, the downward trend in cell production persists, and with module manufacturers continuously forcing prices down, the price pressure on wafers remains high, offering limited support.
The demand for 182N wafers has turned downward, and the proportion of production in this category has also been reduced this month. Meanwhile, the share of 210RN wafers in total output has increased significantly, with 210 wafers (R-type) accounting for nearly 20%. The gap caused by adjustments in downstream product sizes is rapidly being filled, leading to an oversupply of wafer and further price pressure on wafer manufacturers.
Cells
Cell production is expected to decrease by 4-5% month-on-month, with cell production adjusted down to 50-51 GW. This trend of production divergence is expected to intensify in Q4. On the demand side, major manufacturers have seen a slight recovery in orders due to the booming ground-mount installations, but overall module production recovery remains limited. The intense price competition in the module sector makes it difficult to support cell prices.
Prices for certain sizes have been revised downward this week, with P-type M10 and G12 both falling to RMB 0.27/W, while N-type G12R saw a faster production surplus, dropping to RMB 0.27/W as well.
Modules
Module production this month shows divergence. Overall, monthly production is up by 3-4%, reaching 49-50 GW. On the demand side, centralized PV installations have led to a slight recovery in orders for some manufacturers, but there has been no clear recovery in distributed PV projects. Overseas, inventory backlog issues in Europe are intensifying, leading to another month-on-month decline in module prices.
Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, major manufacturers have adjusted their pricing range to RMB 0.65-0.73/W, while smaller manufacturers are offloading inventory at lower prices around RMB 0.65/W to return cash flow. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream pricing is concentrated in the RMB 0.75-0.83/W range.
PV Glass
On the supply side, production is expected to decrease month-on-month due to line maintenance and kiln closures. On the demand side, September saw relatively low stocking levels among module manufacturers. With the expected increase in module production post-holiday, stocking activity should pick up. However, rising inventories and a continued decline in upstream soda ash prices will continue to exert significant pressure on PV glass prices.
News
Polysilicon
Transaction Overview: The recent round of deals has mostly been completed. After polysilicon manufacturers firmly maintained their prices, transaction volumes shrank. The ingot manufacturers, facing difficulties in passing costs downstream, are resistant to price hikes on the raw material side. While leading manufacturers generally agree on price increases for N-type silicon rods, weak demand raises uncertainty over whether these price hikes can be sustained.
Supply and Demand: In Q4, uncertainty in the polysilicon supply increases. Whether the current trend of reduced production will continue depends on whether polysilicon manufacturers maintain their scheduled maintenance and production cuts. If new capacity of leading manufacturers comes online on schedule, the downward trend in polysilicon supply may be reversed. On the demand side, challenges like inventory clearance and financial losses create significant obstacles for ingot manufacturers to increase their procurement. In the short term, the support for polysilicon appears pessimistic.
Price Trends: The price of polysilicon has stabilized after a period of rebound, with leading manufacturers setting N-type silicon rod prices around 41 CNY/kg. However, second- and third-tier manufacturers have weaker pricing power and are generally maintaining stable prices. Considering the current industrial silicon costs, leading manufacturers’ prices are now close to covering their cash costs, with profit margins on the verge of turning positive.
Wafers
Supply and Demand: The supply and demand for different wafer sizes may diverge in Q4. The capacity for 210R wafers is showing a clear upward trend, and procurement demand for this size is expected to increase accordingly. Coupled with inventory adjustments, the supply-demand relationship for 210R is improving. For 182mm wafers, however, the inventory remains a key obstacle to supply-demand balance, with the N-type M10 price hovering around 1.08-1.10 CNY/piece. Some second- and third-tier manufacturers, eager to recover their cash flow, have offered prices below 1.08 CNY/piece for more shipments.
Price Trends: Prices for all wafer types have remained stable this week. Looking ahead, wafer supply is expected to continue shrinking, and production cuts are anticipated to intensify during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the supply-demand balance for 210R wafers may be the first to stabilize.
Cells
Supply and Demand: Ahead of the holiday, demand from the module side may weaken, forcing solar cell manufacturers to lower their productions. For second- and third-tier solar cell manufacturers, shrinking orders and ongoing losses increase the risk of being phased out from the market. Demand for 210mm cells is growing, and its supply-demand is not yet surplus. Some cell manufacturers are accelerating production cuts and technical upgrades in hopes of capturing a premium from short-term supply-demand balance.
Price Trends: Some cell sizes saw price reductions this week. The N-type M10 price has been adjusted to a mainstream transaction range of 0.270 CNY/W, while the N-type G12R has remained stable at around 0.280 CNY/W.
Modules
Supply and Demand: As the holiday approaches, module manufacturers are expected to lower productions due to weak demand. Module manufacturers are cautious with their production plans to avoid inventory buildup. Recently, price competition has resurfaced, and with limited demand, module manufacturers have been cutting prices to secure more orders.
Price Trends: Module prices have been reduced across the board this week. Bifacial M10-TOPCon modules from leading manufacturers have been reduced to the 0.68-0.73 CNY/W range, while some smaller manufacturers, seeking to more shipments, have dropped prices to around 0.65 CNY/W. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, leading manufacturers’ prices are concentrated in the 0.75-0.83 CNY/W range, with a slight reduction in prices of BC products.