TrendForce has released the latest PV spot price, revealing the supply and demand dynamics in the market. Polysilicon and Wafer prices have shown a divergence over the week, whereas Module and Cell prices have remained steady.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

The top-tier polysilicon companies are in a positive transaction phase, having essentially wrapped up January 2024 orders. Some businesses are still in the negotiation phase.

Regarding order prices, N-type polysilicon has maintained stability, primarily fueled by increased N-type wafer output and heightened demand resulting from a shift in part of the P-type wafer production capacity to N-type wafers.

Conversely, P-type polysilicon prices have experienced fluctuations and a continued decline. On one hand, the newly added production capacity has yielded low-quality polysilicon, exacerbating the oversupply issue for P-type polysilicon.

On the other hand, diminishing downstream output of P-type wafers has impacted the demand for P-type polysilicon, contributing to its declining price. Looking at the supply side, the influx of new production capacity in January is steadily increasing polysilicon output, with a medium single-digit month-on-month growth rate.

On the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers maintain a high activation rate, but the output of N-type crystal pulling is rapidly rising.

In summary, this month shows positive supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon, providing robust support for its price. However, the outlook for P-type polysilicon is bleak due to the production of low-quality output from the newly added capacity, creating an imbalance in the demand and supply relationship.

The expectation is that the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon will widen. This week, the prices of rechargeable and dense polysilicon have further declined, while N-type polysilicon remains stable.

Wafer

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.25/Pc.

Regarding P-type wafers, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type wafers stands at 1.9 yuan and 3.0 yuan per piece, respectively, closely aligned with their cost structures. On the supply side, the swift shift of wafer manufacturers towards the production of N-type wafers has significantly diminished the output proportion of P-type wafers.

Concurrently, the shutdown of production capacities for downstream P-type cells on the demand side indicates a gloomy market for P-type products. Additionally, the stagnant price is attributed to low trading volumes, and P-type wafers have evolved into customized products, with their price trends and trading volumes contingent on the delivery of P-type projects.

Turning to N-type wafers, the supply side witnesses a double-digit increase in the output proportion of N-type wafers, projected to reach 70%. On the demand side, cell manufacturers are predominantly shifting towards N-type products, providing robust support for the demand for N-type wafers.

However, it is crucial to note the potential risk of increasing inventory for N-type wafers due to oversupply. There remains a possibility that the supply of N-type wafers will exceed demand, leading to fluctuations and a gradual decline in N-type wafer prices.

Moreover, concerning wafer sizes, rectangle wafers will dominate the N-type wafer market, and as the trading volume of various rectangle wafer sizes increases, we can expect more quoted prices for different sizes of N-type rectangle wafers. This week, the price of P-type wafers has remained unchanged, while the price of N-type modules has dropped to 2.1 yuan per piece.

Cell

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.37/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.38/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W.

Concerning P-type cells, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type cells is set at 0.37 yuan and 0.38 yuan per watt, respectively. Notably, P-type cell prices have dipped below the cost line, leading to the essentially complete shutdown of its production capacity. Once cell manufacturers complete the delivery of ongoing projects, the production capacity for P-type cells will be cleared out.

On the supply side, major cell manufacturers have extensively halted P-type production capacities, resulting in a sharp decline in P-type cell output. Additionally, the demand from module manufacturers for P-type cells is rapidly diminishing.

With a decrease in both supply and demand, P-type cell prices are currently at a standstill. Specialized manufacturers are taking the strategic approach of halting production and stockpiling inventory to maximize profits when delivering the remaining P-type products.

On the flip side, regarding N-type cells, the supply side sees a higher share of total cell output. However, on the cost front, the positive support from the prices of N-type polysilicon and wafers is aiding in stabilizing N-type cell prices.

On the demand side, there is a significant increase in customer demand. Consequently, N-type cell prices have remained stable this week, supported by a balanced combination of supply, demand, and cost factors.

Module

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.98/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.00/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.00/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.01/W.

On the demand side, module manufacturers are experiencing a decline in the month-on-month growth rate of modules in January. With the conclusion of the last quarter’s earnings and the approach of the holiday season, both domestic and overseas demand have slowed down.

Module manufacturers are displaying a reduced inclination to boost output, opting to cut production to varying extents. The anticipated order amounts for January are relatively pessimistic on the demand side. Even top-tier manufacturers with existing orders supporting their production are witnessing a decreasing trend in order volume, let alone other manufacturers with fewer orders who find themselves compelled to cut or halt production.

Regarding domestic demand, January marks the off-season, and the purchasing demand for ground-based and distributed solar projects is at its lowest point for the entire year. However, overseas markets are showing signs of recovery, with a positive turn in month-on-month export volumes.

Furthermore, the continuous decline in module prices has spurred demand in the Indian market, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia experience a boom due to supportive government policies. Nevertheless, the export to the European market has not yet turned positive, and it will take time to deplete existing inventory and witness a recovery in demand. This week, both P-type and N-type module prices have remained stable.

According to EnergyTrend, the New Energy Research Center under TrendForce, as of October 23, 2023, the prices for various photovoltaic materials and components have experienced changes:

For Polysilicon:

• Mono Recycled Polysilicon in RMB (Renminbi) dropped to RMB 72/KG, a decrease of 10%.
• Mono Grade Polysilicon in RMB decreased from RMB 78/KG to RMB 70/KG, a 10.26% decline.
• N-Type Polysilicon was quoted at RMB 78/KG, with a minor change of -15.22%.
• Polysilicon outside China was priced at US$20.55/KG.

For Wafer:

• M10 Mono Wafer in RMB were quoted at RMB 2.4/Pc, marking an 11.11% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.299/Pc, down by 11.01% from the previous US$0.336/Pc.
• G12 Mono Wafer in RMB were priced at RMB 3.4/Pc, showing a 5.56% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.422/Pc, a 5.59% drop.
• Since October 23rd, new N-Type M10 Mono Wafer was quoted at RMB 2.5/Pc.

For Cell:

• M10 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was priced at RMB 0.51/W, marking a 10.53% decrease; the USD pricing was US$0.065/W, down by 11.64% from the previous US$0.073/W.
• G12 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was quoted at RMB 0.53/W, representing a significant decrease of 10.17% from RMB 0.59/W; the latest USD price was US$0.067/W, showing an 11.84% decline.
• M10 TOPCon Cells in RMB decreased from RMB 0.6/W to RMB 0.52/W, down by 13.33%.

For Modules:

• The price for 182mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.15/W, a 4.17% reduction from the previous week.
• Both 210mm facial Mono PERC Module and 182mm facial Mono PERC Module were quoted at RMB 1.16/W, with a change of 4.13%.
• The price for 210mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.17/W.

PV Glass prices were reported as follows:

• 2.0mm Coating was priced at RMB 20/㎡.
• 3.2mm Coating was priced at RMB 28/㎡.

Please note that this information is sourced from EnergyTrend and should be credited if used or referenced.

After the Chinese holidays, solar-related materials continued to decline, with the exception of module prices which remained nearly flat. Prices for other materials such as cells, wafers, and polysilicon all decreased.

Polysilico

Polysilicon prices have continued to decline since the Labor Day holiday, with mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials now priced at RMB 158/kg and RMB 155/kg, respectively. Downstream wafer businesses are trying to reduce their polysilicon inventory to avoid further losses from price drops. The increase in polysilicon output is weakening price protection for polysilicon companies, with some dumping their stocks, further accelerating the price drop. The ramp-up phase has resulted in lower quality polysilicon, creating an apparent price difference compared to high-quality polysilicon. The drop in prices is expected to continue.

Wafers

Wafer prices have dropped for nearly two weeks, guided by leading wafer businesses. M10 and G12 now cost a respective mainstream price of RMB 5.4/pc and RMB 7.4/pc. Zhonghuan recently announced a more than 8% reduction in its wafer prices following LONGi’s announcement of an approximate 3% drop in wafer prices. The cautious attitude towards procurement in response to falling prices has led to sluggish market transactions. The cell segment’s reluctance to purchase has led to shipment difficulties and an inventory build-up. Combined with the ongoing decline in polysilicon prices, wafer prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term.

Cells

Cell prices have dropped slightly following the Labor Day holiday, with M10 and G12 cells now priced at RMB 1.04/W and RMB 1.1/W respectively. The reduction in upstream polysilicon and wafer prices, along with price suppression from downstream module makers, contributed to the decrease. However, the balanced supply and demand of cells prevented a significant drop, allowing cell businesses to maintain partial profitability. Further reductions in cell prices may occur due to ongoing cost reductions upstream and price pressure from module makers, but the equilibrium between upstream and downstream sectors could slow the decrease. M10 mono-Si TOPCon cell prices have increased due to a gradual rise in market transactions, now priced at RMB 1.18/W.

Modules

Module prices are holding steady in the short term, with 182 & 210 mono-Si single-sided PERC modules priced at RMB 1.67/W and RMB 1.68/W respectively, and 182 & 210 bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules at RMB 1.69/W and RMB 1.7/W. Upstream price reductions have yet to affect the module segment due to the retention of profitability for the cell segment and the traditional peak season for the PV industry. Despite the price-suppressing approach from the end sector, first-tier module makers are stabilizing their prices, and overseas demand is strong. Overall, module prices are expected to remain sturdy in the short term. (Image credit: EnergyTrend)