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[News] UK Inflation Falls Within Target Range in September, Fuels Market Expectations for Rate Cuts
UK CPI fell within the target range in September, according to data released by the UK Office for National Statistics on October 16. The CPI increased by 1.7% year-over-year in September, down from 2.2% in the previous month and below the market expectation of 1.9%, marking the lowest level since April 2021.
Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, and tobacco, rose by 3.2% year-over-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
The main factor behind the CPI decline was the transportation sector, where prices dropped by 2.2% year-over-year, a 3.5 percentage point reduction from the previous month, contributing -0.3 percentage points to overall CPI growth. This was primarily due to lower airfares and a decline in crude oil prices.
Moreover, The Bank of England’s closely watched services prices rose by 4.9% year-over-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting the continued easing of wage pressures. The latest data shows that regular pay growth in August was 4.9% year-over-year, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period, marking the lowest level since June 2022.
Earlier, in its August Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of England predicted that as wage pressures ease, services inflation would gradually decline to around 5.3% in 2024.
According to Reuters report, the latest CPI data has further fueled market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England. The probability of a two-rate cut by the end of the year has risen from 80% to 90%, and the British pound fell by approximately 0.8 cents against the U.S. dollar on October 16.
Please note that this article cites information from Reuters
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[News] U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations in August, but Markets Still Bet on Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts
The U.S. retail sales slightly increased in August, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau on September 17. The U.S. Retail sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month in August, down from 1% in July, but better than market expectations of -0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by 2.1%, lower than the previous month’s 2.7%.
The increase this month was primarily driven by online store sales, which saw a monthly growth of 1.4%. However, this was partially offset by a 0.1% decrease in automotive-related sales and a 1.2% decline in gas station sales.
Core retail sales (excluding automotive-related sales) rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while double-core retail sales (excluding automotive and gas station sales) increased by 0.2%. The control group retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose by 0.3%.
In summary, while August retail sales showed some resilience in U.S. consumer spending, certain declines may have been driven by falling prices. Nevertheless, the market appeared to overlook the retail sales data, as FedWatch indicated that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut had risen to 65%, up from 50% the day before.
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[News] US Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 3% as Initial Jobless Claims Slightly Declined
Summary:
- Q2 real GDP revised up to 3.0%
- Initial jobless claims last week fell by 2,000 to 231,000
- Continuing claims last week rose by 13,000 to 1,868,000
The U.S. initial jobless claims slightly declined last week, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 29. The Initial claims was 231,000, down by 2,000 from the revised figure of the previous week, outperforming market expectations of 232,000. The four-week moving average was 231,500, down by 4,750 from the previous week’s revised figure. Meanwhile, continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1,868,000.
At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also released the second estimate for Q2 Real GDP, revising the annual growth rate up to 3.0%, an increase of 0.2% from the preliminary estimate. The core PCE inflation rate was revised down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.1% from the preliminary estimate. Overall, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with inflation remaining on a downward trend.
During last week’s Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, the Federal Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the risks of rising inflation are continuing to diminish and that there is sufficient reason to believe inflation will return to 2%.
Meanwhile, the downside risks to the labor market are gradually increasing. Although the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, it has risen back to 2023 levels. This increase is primarily due to higher labor supply and job vacancies rather than widespread layoffs. However, the Fed do not welcome any further cooling of the labor market.
Finally, Powell clearly stated that the time for policy adjustments has arrived. Although he did not reveal specific plans for rate cuts, insights can be gained from the September release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), where adjustments to the dot plot will indicate the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts by the Fed. Currently, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 3 to 4 quarter-points throughout 2024 (1 quarter-point in September, 1 to 2 quarter-points in November, and 1 quarter-point in December).
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