As reported by UDN News, Samsung Electronics is making a significant move by increasing the prices of NAND Flash memory by 20% every quarter until the second quarter of 2024. This price surge exceeds industry expectations.

Within the semiconductor industry, Samsung initially raised NAND wafer prices by 10% to 20% this quarter, Pulse reported. Now, the company has decided to continue this trend by progressively increasing prices by 20% during the first and second quarters of the next year. This strategic decision reflects Samsung’s determination to stabilize NAND wafer prices with the aim of reversing the market’s direction in the first half of the upcoming year.

Based on TrendForce’s research in October, with NAND wafer prices leading the increase since August and suppliers adopting a firmer stance in negotiations, Q4 enterprise SSD contract prices are projected to rise by approximately 5~10%. Meanwhile, reduced production of mainstream processes and fewer suppliers for high-end client SSDs have endowed suppliers with better bargaining power. Consequently, both high-end and low-end products are expected to increase concurrently, with 4Q23 PC client SSD contract prices projected to rise by 8~13%.

TrendForce also reports that Q4 contract prices for mobile DRAM are poised to see an increased quarterly rise of 13–18%. But that’s not all—NAND Flash is also joining the party, with contract prices of eMMC and UFS expected to climb by approximately 10–15% in the same quarter. This quarter is set to star mobile DRAM, traditionally the underperformer in profit margins compared to its DRAM counterparts, as it takes the lead in this round of price increases.

TrendForce foresees that memory prices are expected to continue trending upward in 1Q24. The rate of increase will depend on whether suppliers maintain a conservative production strategy and whether there is enough consumer demand to bolster the market.

Samsung’s Strategy on NAND Affect the Market and Company Performance

Following the latest financial report, NAND is a staple memory chip alongside DRAM, and together they account for around half of Samsung Electronics’ memory chip sales. In conjunction with the aggressive price hikes, Samsung is also curbing production to manage market supply effectively, promoting a positive market environment, and enhancing profitability.

At a recent financial conference on October 31st, Kim Jae-jun, Vice President of Samsung Eletronics, publicly stated, “There will be selective production adjustments to normalize inventories in a short time. A supply cut will be larger for NAND flash than for DRAM.”

Financial analysts estimate that as memory production cuts take effect and prices rise, Samsung’s operations will see a significant improvement starting from the fourth quarter of this year.

NAND Industry Foresee Bright Future amid Memory Price Surge

NAND-related businesses in Taiwan are also optimistic about the industry’s future. Khein Seng Pua, CEO of Phison Electronics Corp, indicated that the adjustment of OEM customer inventories, spanning the past six to nine months, is nearly complete. Consequently, Phison has secured more design-in projects, resulting in a gradual increase in wafer demand. Furthermore, Phison’s controller IC products have advanced into a new process generation, leading to a rise in value-added custom development projects.

Simon Chen, Chairman and CEO of ADATA, anticipates a prolonged period of rising memory prices, starting from the fourth quarter of this year and continuing into the first half of the next year. This is expected to create a two-year era of prosperity in the memory market, with supply shortages predicted in the coming years.

Industry experts highlight the reinvigoration of the NAND wafer market, with customers progressively returning. Samsung, being the global memory chip leader, is spearheading the price hikes, thereby contributing to a favorable pricing trend across the overall market.
(Image: Samsung)

Explore more:

• Suppliers Scale Back Production, Q4 NAND Flash Contract Prices Projected to Climb 8~13%, Says TrendForce
• Q4 DRAM Contract Prices Set to Rise, with Estimated Quarterly Increase of 3-8%, Says TrendForce

As the leading global supplier of NAND memory, Samsung is embarking on an ambitious journey to enhance its V-NAND technology, also known as 3D NAND. Early in this week, Samsung has officially declared its commitment to commence mass production of the 9th generation V-NAND memory, featuring an astonishing 300+ layers, by 2024. This achievement will establish a new industry record for the highest number of active layers, solidifying Samsung’s industry leadership.

In a blog post on Samsung Electronics, Jung-Bae Lee, President and Head of Samsung Electronics’ Memory Business, stated, “The ninth-generation V-NAND is well under way for mass production early next year with the industry’s highest layer count based on a double-stack structure.”

Samsung was diligently working on the 9th generation V-NAND back in August this year, preserving the double-stacked technology they first introduced in 2020. Not only is Samsung confirming the trajectory of their next-gen non-volatile memory technology, but it also surpasses competitors by boasting more active layers. It’s been disclosed that SK Hynix’s upcoming 3D NAND will have 321 active layers, Samsung is set to surpass this number.

Jung-Bae Lee further elaborated, “Samsung is also working on the next generation of value-creating technologies, including a new structure that maximizes V-NAND’s input/output (I/O) speed.”

While precise performance details of Samsung’s 9th generation V-NAND remain undisclosed, it will power their upcoming SSDs. In the near future, it is anticipated that Samsung will introduce retail SSDs with the PCIe Gen5 interface, in line with the Samsung 990 Pro series.

Regarding long-term technological advancement, Samsung is committed to minimizing interference between units, reducing device dimensions, and maximizing the count of vertical layers. These innovative strides are clearing the path for Samsung to achieve the industry’s most compact unit size. These endeavors will propel Samsung toward their ambitious goal of developing over 1,000 layers of 3D NAND and distinctive memory solutions, ensuring the continued relevance of their products for data centers, personal computers, and a wide range of applications.

(Image: Samsung)

Read more:

• Memory Spot Price Updates: DRAM and NAND Flash Prices Soaring at Relatively High Levels
• NAND Flash Spot Prices Surge, DRAM Demand Stalls, Spot Prices Remain Volatile in Late September

Driven by emerging technologies like AI and high-performance computing, the semiconductor foundry industry increasingly emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing processes. Recently, the industry has seen significant developments. Intel announced that it has commenced large-scale production of its Intel 4 process node, while TSMC and Samsung are equally committed to advancing their advanced process technologies.

Intel’s Mass Production of Intel 4 Process Node

On October 15th, Intel China’s official public account revealed that Intel has initiated large-scale production of the Intel 4 process node using Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) technology. According to Intel, they are making significant progress with their “Four Years, Five Nodes” plan. This plan aims to produce next-generation products that meet the computational demands driven by AI’s role in the “Siliconomy.”

Being the first process node produced by Intel using EUV lithography technology, Intel 4 offers substantial improvements in performance, efficiency, and transistor density compared to its predecessors. Intel 4 was unveiled at the Intel Innovation 2023 held in September this year.

In comparison to Intel 7, Intel 4 achieves a 2x reduction in area, providing high-performance computing (HPC) logic libraries and incorporating various innovative features.

In detail, Intel 4 simplifies the EUV lithography process, optimizing it for high-performance computing applications, supporting both low voltage (<0.65V) and high voltage (>1.1V) operations. Compared to Intel 7, Intel 4 boasts more than a 20% improvement in iso-power performance, and high-density Metal-Insulator-Metal (MIM) capacitors deliver outstanding power supply performance.

Intel 7 and Intel 4 are currently in large-scale production. Intel 3 is on track to meet its planned target by the end of 2023.

Intel’s Intel 20A and Intel 18A, which use Ribbon FET all-around gate transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery technology, are also progressing well, with a target of 2024. Intel will soon introduce the Intel 18A process design kit (PDK) for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) customers.

With the adoption of Intel 4 process nodes, the Intel Core i9 Ultra processor, codenamed “Meteor Lake,” will be released on December 14th this year, ushering in the AIPC era.

On Intel 3 process nodes, the energy-efficient E-core Sierra Forest processor will be launched in the first half of 2024, and the high-performance P-core Granite Rapids processor will follow closely.

Samsung’s 2nm Process Detailed Production Plan

Samsung has already commenced production of its second-generation 3nm chips and plans to continue focusing on 2nm chips.

On June 28th, Samsung Electronics unveiled its latest foundry technology innovations and business strategies at the 7th Samsung Foundry Forum (SFF) in 2023.

In the era of artificial intelligence, Samsung’s foundry program, based on advanced GAA process technology, offers robust support for customers in AI applications. To this end, Samsung has disclosed a detailed production plan and performance levels for its 2nm process. The plan is to achieve mass production for mobile applications by 2025 and respectively expand to HPC and automotive electronics in 2026 and 2027.

Samsung reports that the 2nm process (SF2) improves performance by 12% compared to the 3nm process (SF3), increases efficiency by 25%, and reduces the area by 5%.

Furthermore, reports indicated that Samsung is ensuring the production capacity for products using the next-generation EUV lithography machine, High-NA, in September. This equipment is expected to have a prototype by the end of this year and officially enter production next year.

TSMC’s Mass Production of 2nm by 2025

This year, TSMC has unveiled its latest advanced semiconductor manufacturing roadmap in various locations, including Santa Clara, California, and Taiwan. The roadmap covers a range of processes from 3nm to 2nm.

TSMC’s current roadmap for 3nm includes N3, N3E, N3P, N3X, and N3 AE, with N3 serving as the foundational version, N3E as an enhanced version with further cost optimization, N3P focusing on improved performance with a planned start in the second half of 2024, N3X targeting high-performance computing devices with a mass production goal in 2025, and N3 AE designed specifically for the automotive sector, offering greater reliability and the potential to shorten time-to-market by 2-3 years.

In the 2nm realm, TSMC is planning to achieve mass production of the N2 process by 2025. TSMC has reported that the N2 process will offer a 15% speed improvement over N3E at the same power or a 30% reduction in power consumption, with a 15% increase in transistor density. In September, media reports revealed that TSMC has formed a task force to accelerate 2nm pilot production and mass production, aiming for risk production next year and official mass production in 2025.

To ensure the smooth development of 2nm process technology, TSMC has initiated efforts in the upstream equipment sector. On September 12th, TSMC announced the acquisition of a 10% stake in IMS Nanofabrication, a subsidiary of Intel, for a price not exceeding $432.8 million. IMS specializes in the research and production of electron beam lithography machines, which find extensive applications in semiconductor manufacturing, optical component manufacturing, MEMS manufacturing, and more. The industry sees TSMC’s IMS acquisition as vital for developing crucial equipment and meeting the demand for 2nm process commercialization.

(Image: Intel)

As TV demand increased in North America in 1H21 following the distribution of stimulus packages, TV brands continued to replenish their component inventories during this time, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Notably, brands adopted a rolling schedule for their TV shipment because their manufacturing operations for TV sets were disrupted by a shortage of panels in 2Q21. TV shipment for 1H21 reached 98.45 million units, a 10% YoY increase.

Although supply issues related TV components have become gradually alleviated in 3Q21, TrendForce believes that retail prices of TV sets in 2H21 are unlikely to reach the rock bottom levels previously seen in 1H21 because the massive price hike of TV panels in 1H21 had led to a surge in TV manufacturing costs. In addition, as the market anticipates the possibility of an overall downturn in demand despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, TrendForce has once again revised its forecast of annual TV shipment for 2021 down to 215 million units, a 0.9% YoY decrease.

Chinese and Korean TV brands were major contributors to the growth of TV shipment for 1H21 while shipment of ultra large-sized TVs remained robust

TrendForce’s findings show that, although TV shipment for 1H21 fell short of prior forecasts by 5.8%, shipment from the two largest brands SEC (Samsung Electronics Co) and LGE (LG Electronics) comprised more than 20% of total large-sized TV shipment for the first time, thereby propelling their TV shipments for 1H21 above 20.7 million units for SEC and 14.01 million units for LGE. In particular, SEC’s large-sized (65-inch and above) TV shipment underwent a staggering 25% YoY increase for 1H21. Hence, the two brands’ strategy to eschew profit loss from the surge in panel prices by upgrading their product specs and increasing the shipment of larger-sized products proved to be relatively successful.

Despite nonstop issues with the supply of components required for TV set manufacturing in 1H21, TCL and Hisense were able to lower the manufacturing costs of their TV sets by increasing their shipments and adjusting their product mixes. For 1H21, TCL and Hisense increased their TV shipments by 11.5% and 9.5% YoY to 11.05 million units and 8.94 million units, respectively, with both companies setting records in terms of shipment volumes. In particular, 55-inch (and above) TVs accounted for 36.5% and 40.2%, of the 1H21 TV shipment from TCL and Hisense, respectively, meaning they shipped more large-sized TVs in 2021 than in any previous year. Xiaomi, the only brand among the top five to record a YoY drop in its TV shipment, saw its shipment reach 5.52 million units, a 6.6% YoY decline, despite occupying a larger share of TV shipment in China compared to TCL or Hisense. While Xiaomi struggled with rising manufacturing costs due to the persistent price hike of TV panels, Xiaomi’s decline can primarily be attributed to the fact that it failed to attract consumers despite multiple promotional price cuts in 1H21.

Persistently high prices of TV panels as well as lengthened shipping times in Europe and North America will likely hinder TV sales in 2H21 despite the arrival of the traditional peak season

Issues with TV panel supply are expected to gradually become resolved in 2H21. However, TV brands still need to address ongoing challenges with high panel costs as well as lowered TV demand in Europe and the US now that pandemic-related restrictions are being lifted. From June 2020 to July 2021, prices of 32-inch panels rose by 167%, though retail prices of 32-inch TV sets rose by a mere 30-35%. Similarly, prices of 55-inch panels rose by 120% while retail prices of 55-inch entry-level and mid-range TV sets rose by only 20-25%, with high-end TVs even experiencing a price drop. In other words, promotional price cuts taking place during peak season sales this year are unlikely to be remarkable and result in noticeable sales performances.

Although third quarters have traditionally marked the start of the peak sales season and hence a period of component procurement for TV brands, retail availability of end-products, such as TV sets, was delayed by three to four weeks this year due to port congestions taking place across the globe, which indirectly led to a decline in TV brands’ procurement activities for Europe and North America. Peak season sales, in turn, will likely be relatively muted this year in view of an increase in TV manufacturing costs and lengthened shipping times. Therefore, TrendForce expects TV shipment for 2H21 to reach 117 million units, an 8.5% YoY decrease.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

（Cover image source: Unsplash）