Ahead of SK hynix’s Q3 earnings announcement on October 24^th, the market expects it may see a surge in quarterly operating profit driven by HBM, potentially leading the company to outperform Samsung’s semiconductor division. Therefore, there is growing interest in SK hynix’s next move.

In order to maintain its leadership in the memory sector amid heated competition from China, SK hynix is reportedly shifting its focus to high-value technologies such as HBM4 and Compute Express Link (CXL), according to Korean media outlet Pinpoint News and Tom’s Hardware.

This shift is motivated by a highly competitive memory market, where Chinese firms are ramping up their production capabilities and adopting aggressive pricing strategies to gain share, Tom’s Hardware notes.

For instance, a previous report by ZDNet mentions that Chinese memory manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) are aggressively expanding production, which could negatively affect profitability in the traditional DRAM market. Established in 2016, CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer with government backing.

Both Samsung and SK hynix are said to be closely monitoring these developments, and counting on high-valued technologies like HBM4 and CXL to unlock a new wave of growth momentum.

It is worth noting that both memory giants have teamed up with TSMC on HBM4, as they attempt to incorporate customized features requested by major clients, counting on TSMC to manufacture more powerful logic dies, the component that functions as the brain of an HBM chip.

Per SK hynix’s product roadmap, the company plans to launch 12-layer stacked HBM4 in the second half of 2025 and 16-layer in 2026.

Samsung, which is struggling with the 12-Hi HBM3e verification with NVIDIA, also aims high for HBM4 to turn the tide. A previous report by The Elec indicates that Samsung targets to tape out HBM4 by year-end, while eyeing the mass production by the end of 2025.

On the other hand, CXL is a next-generation interface that efficiently connects CPUs, GPUs, and memory in high-performance computing systems. According to Pinpoint News, by applying CXL to existing memory modules, capacities can be expanded by more than ten times, makes it extremely suited for the demand of the AI era.

SK hynix is also focusing on CXL memory, which is gaining attention as the next-generation AI memory following HBM. Citing SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung’s remarks, a report by ZDNet suggests that the memory giant plans to launch products like CXL and LPCAMM tailored to customers’ needs, as the results will begin to materialize around next year.

In the meantime, Samsung reportedly aims to begin mass production of a 256GB CMM-D, compatible with the CXL 2.0 protocol, by the end of 2024, according to Tom’s Hardware. In its own words, Samsung’s CMM-D is a memory expander built with next-generation CXL technology, which seamlessly connects multiple processors and devices, increasing memory capacity thus optimizing memory management.

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• [News] Samsung’s Next Move? Early HBM4 Mass-production and 2nm Foundry Solutions Could Be the Cure
• [News] SK hynix Reportedly to Tape-out HBM4 in October, Paving the Way for NVIDIA’s Rubin

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

While Samsung is struggling to catch up with SK hynix on its HBM3e progress, it would also be one of the company’s top priorities to retain talent. According to the report by Korean media outlet The Elec, around 200 Samsung employees have been flocking to apply for three job openings posted by SK hynix.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report indicates that a recent SK hynix job posting seeking three experienced etching engineers attracted applications from around 200 Samsung employees.

As the majority of Samsung’s qualified fab engineers applied for the position, this high number of Samsung applicants has drawn attention across the industry, as it is highly unusual for so many to apply for such a role, the report notes.

Previously open to those with less than three years of experience, the program of SK hynix, known as Junior Talent, has expanded its criteria to include engineers with up to five years of experience, counting Master’s and PhD studies as part of their professional background. The adjustment has attracted Samsung engineers with limited experience, according to the report.

Following the program’s expansion, the number of applicants from Samsung significantly increased, sources revealed.

To provide additional background information, the report points out that the number of Samsung semiconductor engineers leaving for competitors or government-backed research institutes seems to be growing.

For instance, the Korea Electronics Technology Institute (KETI) recently posted a job opening for three research positions, and attracted around 50 PhD-level engineers from Samsung’s semiconductor division, the report suggests. Sources cited by the report also note that all eight of KETI’s recent hires had previously worked at Samsung.

It is worth observing that whether this is a long-term employee mass “exodus” or it is merely a temporary trend within a company already known for higher turnover compared to other domestic firms, the report notes.

A former Samsung Semiconductor employee told The Elec that while Samsung once offered the highest salaries in the industry, its compensation today only slightly exceeds that of competitors, and only when factoring in bonuses.

On the other hand, for Samsung employees, the jobs in jeopardy may not simply be those mid-level positions. After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast, a report by the Korea Economic Daily notes that the company is set to significantly reduce its chip executive positions and reorganize its semiconductor-related operations.

According to the information cited by the report, as of the second quarter, Samsung’s DS division had 438 executives, making up 38% of the company’s total 1,164 executives. Notably, this number is more than double that of the current HBM leader, SK hynix, which has 199 executives.

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• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Would Samsung finally be able to secure major orders from tech giants, even one of the world’s top AI companies? According to a report by The Information, the most successful and lucrative partnership in AI business, which is formed by NVIDIA and its foundry partner TSMC, is showing signs of strain, while Samsung may turn out to benefit from the development.

However, it is worth noting that the orders Samsung might get from NVIDIA may not be the most advanced AI chips. According to the reports by The Information and SamMobile, the U.S. AI chip giant is mulling to team up with Samsung to produce its new GPUs, which are considered less complex to manufacture than its AI accelerators.

The reports also suggest that NVIDIA is trying to secure discounted pricing from Samsung, as it aims for a 20-30% reduction compared to what it pays TSMC.

According to the analysis by SamMobile, NVIDIA’s move is an attempt to reduce its dependence on TSMC for upcoming chips, which is a positive development for Samsung.

Though the struggling semiconductor giant is said to have several clients for 5nm, 7nm and 8nm nodes, the continuous yield issues for 3nm and 4nm makes it unable to attract major customers, according to SamMobile, while the company now hopes to improve its yields and regain clients like Qualcomm and NVIDIA.

According to The Information, Samsung’s opportunities arise while NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips, built with TSMC’s 4nm, reportedly faced delays due to issues discovered in the testing process. The chips are said to have failed in high-voltage environments typical of data centers, which put strain on the decades-long partnership between the two firms.

For now, the issues have been resolved, and Team Green’s Blackwell chips are expected to ramp up starting from Q4 2024. According to a report by Wccftech, citing the projection by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Blackwell’s estimated shipments are expected to be around 150,000 to 200,000 units this quarter, and surging to 500,000 to 550,000 units in Q1 2025.

According to Kuo, Microsoft is believed to be the major customer, with its orders for GB200 in Q4 skyrocketing, rising 3 to 4 times from the previous range of 300 to 500 racks (primarily NVL36) to about 1,400 to 1,500 racks (approximately 70% NVL72).

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• [News] NVIDIA’s Blackwell Overcomes Delays, as GB200 Reportedly Sets for December Mass Production

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

At its previous earnings call in July, Samsung has announced the ambitious goal that its HBM sales would increase three to five times in 2H24. However, as it is still struggling to pass the verification of 12-Hi HBM3e products, the company’s prospects for returning to glory in the near term seems to be rather dim.

According to a report by Korean media outlet ZDNet, the main issue may lie in the core die of HBM, while the adoption of 1a DRAM is hindering Samsung’s recent efforts to supply HBM3e for NVIDIA.

Notably, an insider cited by the report notes that Samsung’s Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun, the new Head of Device Solutions (DS) Division, is aware of these issues, so the decision for whether to redesign the 1a DRAM or not may be made soon.

According to the report, Samsung began the mass production of 1a (4th generation) DRAM, which has a linewidth of approximately 14 nm, as early as in the second half of 2021. It is worth noting that the company tries to enhance the product’s competitiveness by actively adopting advanced technologies such as EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography).

ZDNet notes that Samsung applied five EUV layers to its 1a DRAM, which is significantly more than the one layer used by its major competitor, SK hynix.

However, though EUV is advantageous for reducing linewidths compared to the existing ArF (argon fluoride) lithography process, which is supposed to enhance efficiency and thus lowering manufacturing costs, EUV’s high technical difficulty has negatively affected the stability of the process, according to the report.

As a result, the cost of Samsung’s 1a DRAM has not decreased as initially anticipated, according to the report, with the yield issue occurring reportedly hinders Samsung’s HBM3e verification progress with NVIDIA.

Previous reports indicate that Samsung had conducted an on-site inspection with NVIDIA regarding the 8-layer HBM3e products at its Pyeongtaek campus. While the inspection itself concluded without any issues, concerns have reportedly been raised as the data processing speed (Gbps) of Samsung’s 8-layer HBM3e is about 10% lower compared to its rivals, according to sources cited by ZDNet.

Both SK hynix and Micron utilize 1b DRAM for their HBM3e core dies, the report notes.

Therefore, industry insiders cited by ZDNet reveal that Samsung has been internally discussing the possibility of redesigning some of the circuits in its 1a DRAM.

However, If Samsung does proceed with the redesign, it is expected to take at least six months for the product to be completed, the report suggests, which means the mass production could only begin by the second quarter of next year, and it will be challenging to supply the product in a timely manner.

Read more

• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives
• [News] Samsung Rumored to Cut HBM Production Target by 10% by End of 2025 amid HBM3e Delays

(Photo credit: Samsung)

At TSMC’s third-quarter earnings call on the 17th, Chairman C.C. Wei was asked about potential interest in Intel’s spin-off of its IDM business. According to a report from TechNews, Wei responded with two decisive “No’s,” indicating that TSMC has no interest in acquiring the businesses.

C.C. Wei noted that a California-based IDM has been a strong customer for TSMC, consistently placing sizable orders. While Wei did not explicitly name the company, industry observers widely believe the client to be Intel.

During the call, analysts also raised questions about whether the current AI surge might be a bubble and how TSMC views the AI boom.

Wei confidently stated, “AI is real,” and noted that many large-scale cloud customers and AI innovators are collaborating with TSMC. He also mentioned that TSMC utilizes AI and machine learning (ML) within its own facilities to enhance capacity, add value, and improve yield rates.

Wei explained that for TSMC, even a 1 percent improvement in efficiency through AI could result in a revenue increase of NT$1 billion. He also noted that TSMC is not the only company benefiting from AI, and many other businesses are already leveraging AI to boost productivity.

Wei further stated that the demand for AI is just beginning. He referenced a key customer who described the current demand as crazy and noted that it is only starting, with expectations that this trend will continue for several years. This was widely seen as aligning with earlier remarks from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang regarding the high demand for chips based on the Blackwell architecture.

(Photo credit: TSMC)