After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast, Samsung’s next move has become the center of market attention. According to a report by Business Korea, to turn the situation around, Samsung may shift its strategy focus to early HBM4 mass production, as well as targeting advanced foundry solutions below 2nm.

A couple of days ago, Samsung warned its third-quarter profit would probably reach 9.1 trillion won, falling short of market expectations. Jeon Young-hyun, the head of Samsung’s Device Solutions (DS) division, issued an unusual public apology in the meantime.

Citing industry sources, Business Korea notes that Samsung’s DS division is expected to post an operating profit of around 5 trillion won (about USD 3.8 billion) for the third quarter, which is reportedly below the market expectation of 6 trillion won. The figure is significantly lower than SK hynix’s projected quarterly operating profit, which is expected to be in the high 6 trillion won range, according to the report.

Samsung May Accelerate HBM4 Progress to Turn the Tide

The series of setbacks have prompted the struggling giant to take action. As Samsung’s lackluster performance could be attributed to its delay in supplying NVIDIA with its 12-layer HBM3e product, industry insiders cited by Business Korea suggest that accelerating the mass production of HBM4, as well as introducing 2nm foundry solutions, could just be the remedies Samsung needs.

In terms of the HBM market, in which Samsung is lagging behind SK hynix on HBM3e verification, the report indicates that Samsung is expected to prioritize the early mass production of HBM4, which is projected to become mainstream in 2025.

A source familiar with the situation told Business Korea that HBM orders from companies other than NVIDIA would rise next year. Major tech firms, including AMD, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Qualcomm, are also working on AI semiconductors. Therefore, it does not necessarily mean that Samsung should concentrate solely on NVIDIA, and it could accelerate supply contracts with NVIDIA’s competitors, the report notes.

TrendForce’s latest findings indicate that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all submitted their first HBM3e 12-Hi samples in the first half and third quarter of 2024, respectively, and are currently undergoing validation. SK hynix and Micron are making faster progress and are expected to complete validation by the end of this year.

2nm Advancements Would be Another Focus

On the other hand, in terms of the foundry sector, the report suggests that Samsung is expected to further enhance its ‘turnkey order’ strategy. This approach addresses concerns about technology leakage while providing HBM as part of a comprehensive package.

According to the report, Samsung is set to begin mass production of its GAA 2nm process in 2025. The company also aims to complete the development of the 2nm process with Backside Power Delivery Network (BSPDN) technology by 2027. Having secured 2nm orders from Japan’s AI unicorn Preferred Networks (PFN) and U.S. AI semiconductor company Ambarella, Samsung reportedly plans to seek collaboration with major tech firms.

To attract customers, Samsung will host the “Foundry Forum 2024” online on October 24. Previously scheduled to be held in Beijing, the event will now be conducted virtually, which aligns with the company’s efforts to reduce costs. Will it make further progress in advanced nodes? The whole world is watching.

Read more

• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives
• [News] Samsung Foundry Faces Yield Struggles and Client Losses, External Push for Spinoff and U.S. Listing

(Photo credit: Samsung)

After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast earlier this week, Samsung’s head of Device Solutions (DS) division, Jun Young-hyun, had issued an unusual apology. Now the struggling giant seems to be making its next move. According to the latest report by the Korea Economic Daily, the company is set to significantly reduce its chip executive positions and reorganize its semiconductor-related operations.

The report notes that Samsung is currently auditing the memory department within the DS division, which manages its semiconductor business. It is worth noting that the review is said to be led by Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun himself, while the audit may result in substantial job cuts at the executive level.

According to insiders cited by the report, a major executive reshuffle is planned as part of the company’s year-end personnel changes.

For more details, the report indicates that in the year-end reshuffle, Samsung is expected to overhaul the leadership of its three core business units within the DS division, which encompasses memory, foundry, and System LSI. Moreover, key positions, such as the chief technology officer and heads of manufacturing and technology, are also subject to change, according to sources cited by the report.

According to the information cited by the report, as of the second quarter, Samsung’s DS division had 438 executives, making up 38% of the company’s total 1,164 executives. Notably, this number is more than double that of the current HBM leader, SK hynix, which has 199 executives.

According to sources cited by Business Korea, Samsung is also expected to simplify its foundry operations and restructure the Semiconductor Research Center, which is responsible for developing future chip technologies.

Although Samsung did not provide a detailed performance breakdown by division, analysts cited by the report estimate that its foundry business likely suffered losses of approximately 1.5 trillion won in the third quarter. On the other hand, its core memory business would likely to generate an operating profit of 5.5 trillion won, which marks the first time the company’s memory profit falls short of SK hynix’s, the report suggests.

Read more

• [News] Samsung Reportedly Set to Cut About 10% of Jobs in Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand
• [News] Samsung Foundry Faces Yield Struggles and Client Losses, External Push for Spinoff and U.S. Listing

(Photo credit: Samsung)

South Korea’s two major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are set to release their Q3 earnings reports (July to September) at the end of the month, with Samsung Electronics also announcing its financial forecast on October 8.

According to The Korea Times, the market expects SK Hynix to see a significant surge in operating profit driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), potentially outperforming Samsung’s semiconductor division.

The Korea Times reports that SK Hynix’s Q3 operating profit is forecast to hit 6.76 trillion won (around $5 billion), with total revenue projected at 17.99 trillion won. If these estimates hold, SK Hynix may set a new record for quarterly operating profit, despite the broader challenges facing the global memory chip market.

On the other hand, Samsung Electronics does not break down individual business units in its earnings forecasts. However, the company’s Device Solutions (DS) division, which handles the memory chip business, is expected to contribute more than half of Samsung’s overall operating profit.

The market anticipates that Samsung Electronics will report an overall Q3 operating profit of 10.77 trillion won, with its DS division’s profit ranging between 5.2 trillion and 6.3 trillion won.

The Korea Times points out that SK Hynix could potentially surpass Samsung in operating profit by 400 billion to 1.5 trillion won, dealing a blow to Samsung’s long-standing dominance as the world’s top memory chipmaker.

There is growing speculation that SK Hynix may overtake Samsung in annual operating profit.

According to Business Korea, SK Hynix has begun mass production of the world’s first 12-layer HBM3E, following its earlier shipment of 8-layer HBM3E to Nvidia, the leading semiconductor company. The company plans to start supplying the 12-layer HBM3E within this year, further strengthening its market position.

TrendForce forecasts that by next year, HBM will account for 10% of total DRAM bit production and contribute more than 30% of DRAM market revenue. Moreover, HBM3E is expected to make up over 80% of the total HBM demand.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

In 2024, the storage market is experiencing dynamic changes, with many positive developments, including rising contract prices, significant revenue growth for manufacturers, and multiple breakthroughs in technology. Amid this, major storage companies are gearing up for new challenges, especially as the NAND flash memory sector faces an impending shift.

How Far Have Major Companies Progressed with NAND Flash Technology?

This year, major storage manufacturers like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have all made notable advancements in NAND flash technology.

In terms of NAND cell technology, Samsung has become the first in the industry to mass-produce its 9th generation V-NAND with QLC technology. On September 12, Samsung announced it had begun mass production of its 1Tb QLC (Quad-Level Cell) 9th generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), incorporating several groundbreaking technologies.

From a technological innovation perspective, Samsung’s 9th generation QLC V-NAND employs its unique channel hole etching technology to achieve the industry’s highest stack height with a dual-stack structure. Leveraging the expertise of TLC 9th generation V-NAND, the cell area and peripheral circuits are optimized, resulting in an 86% higher bit density than the previous generation.

Compared to earlier versions, the design of Samsung’s 9th generation QLC V-NAND improves data retention performance by about 20%, enhancing product reliability. Writing performance has doubled, and data input/output speeds have increased by 60%. Additionally, its low-power design reduces power consumption for both read and write operations by approximately 30% and 50%, respectively. This is achieved by sensing only the necessary bit lines (BL) to minimize power usage.

In terms of applications, Samsung plans to expand the use of the 9th generation QLC V-NAND from branded consumer products to mobile universal flash storage (UFS), PC, and server SSDs to meet the demands of customers, including cloud service providers.

Sung Hoi Hur, Executive Vice President and Head of Flash Product and Technology at Samsung Electronics, stated that as the enterprise SSD market grows rapidly and demand for AI applications increases, the company will continue to strengthen our leadership in the high-capacity, high-performance NAND flash market through 9th-generation QLC and TLC V-NAND.

However, at present, the mainstream products in the market are still TLC NAND flash memory particles. On August 6, SK Hynix’s Solidigm launched PCIe 5.0 data center SSDs, the D7-PS1010/1030 series, based on SK Hynix’s 176-layer 3D TLC NAND.

On September 11, SK Hynix announced the development of its high-performance SSD “PEB110 E1.S” for data centers, available in 2TB, 4TB, and 8TB versions. Currently undergoing validation with global data center customers, SK Hynix plans to begin mass production in the second quarter of next year.

On the other hand, Micron announced in late July that its SSD products featuring 9th generation (G9) TLC NAND technology had entered mass production, targeting personal devices, edge servers, enterprises, and cloud data centers. Micron’s G9 NAND achieves a data transfer rate 50% faster than current NAND technology used in SSDs. Its per-chip write and read bandwidths are 99% and 88% higher, respectively, than other NAND solutions. The Micron 2650 NVMe SSD, based on G9 NAND, achieves near-PCIe 4.0 performance levels, with a sequential read speed of up to 7,000 MB/s.

Micron also launched its new data center SSD, the 9550 NVMe SSD, featuring 232-layer 3D TLC NAND. It supports various AI workloads, offering a sequential read speed of 14.0 GB/s and a write speed of 10.0 GB/s—67% higher than competitive SSDs. The 9550 SSD’s random read speed reaches 3,300K IOPS, 35% higher than competitors, with random write speeds 33% higher.

The future of QLC SSDs is promising

Industry information indicates that NAND Flash, the core medium for data storage, is vital for SSD performance. Current SSDs use both TLC (Triple-Level Cell) and QLC flash.

In the AI era, there is a growing demand for storage, with SSDs playing a critical role. According to TrendForce, SSDs not only store model parameters during AI model training but also create checkpoints to save progress, making them crucial for high-speed data transfer and durability. As a result, customers primarily opt for 4TB/8TB TLC SSDs to meet the rigorous demands of AI training processes.

QLC SSDs, however, are gaining attention due to their higher storage density, which optimizes server space and reduces energy consumption. They can help large-scale data centers lower their total cost of ownership (TCO) while still meeting high-performance storage needs. Industry experts predict that as more data is generated in the form of videos and images, requiring larger storage capacities, TLC/QLC SSDs of 16TB or more will become the primary products for AI inference applications.

According to TrendForce, AI-related SSD procurement is expected to exceed 45 exabytes (EB) in 2024, with SSD demand in AI servers projected to grow by over 60% annually in the coming years. The share of AI SSDs within the NAND Flash market could rise from 5% in 2024 to 9% in 2025.

The Changing Landscape of the NAND Flash Market

On September 9, TrendForce’s latest research  indicates that in the second quarter of 2024, Samsung maintained its global leadership in the NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market share, up 0.2% from the previous quarter. SK Group followed with a 22.1% share, down 0.1%. Other key players include Kioxia (13.8%), Micron (11.8%), and Western Digital (10.5%).

In terms of revenue, Samsung, SK Group, Kioxia, Micron, and Western Digital all experienced quarter-on-quarter growth in NAND Flash revenues during the second quarter. Overall, NAND Flash revenue increased by 14% in the second quarter.

TrendForce indicates that as the inventory adjustments for server endpoints near completion and AI drives demand for high-capacity storage products, NAND Flash prices continued to rise in Q2 2024. However, due to high inventory levels at PC and smartphone manufacturers, NAND Flash bit shipments decreased by 1% quarter-over-quarter. Despite this, the average selling price increased by 15%, with total revenue reaching USD 16.796 billion, a 14.2% increase from the previous quarter.

Looking ahead to Q3, TrendForce expects that all NAND Flash suppliers have returned to profitability as of Q2 and plan to expand production capacity in Q3 to meet strong demand from AI and servers. However, due to weak market performance in the PC and smartphone sectors in the first half of the year, it is challenging to boost NAND Flash shipments. It is estimated that the average selling price of NAND Flash products will increase by 5% to 10% in Q3, while bit shipments may decrease by at least 5% due to a lack of peak season demand. Industry revenue is expected to remain roughly the same as the previous quarter.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

In recent years, the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands, have increasingly expanding restrictions on China in semiconductor technology. South Korea, on the other hand, has been cautiously responding to U.S. demands due to its significant dependence on the Chinese market.

Yet, according to a report by South Korean media outlet The Korea Herald, the U.S. is increasing pressure on South Korea to comply with its export controls to China.

At the Korea-U.S. Economic Security Conference 2024 held in Washington, D.C. on September 10th, U.S. Commerce Department Undersecretary Alan Estevez called on South Korea’s two leading HBM manufacturers, Samsung and SK hynix, to align with U.S. export controls on China. He urged that their production capacity be reserved for supplying advanced chips to allied nations, rather than competitors such as China.

Estevez emphasized his appreciation for South Korea’s long-standing cooperation with the U.S., but pointed out that since AI can be used for military purposes, it is crucial to prevent China from acquiring advanced chips to train AI models.

South Korea’s Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo responded that while they will discuss the matter with the U.S., export controls have a significant impact on South Korea’s businesses and economy.

Some industry sources cited by The Korea Herald have further pointed out that the direct export volume of chips from Samsung and SK hynix to China is not significant, so the actual impact may be limited.

However, per a previous Reuters report cited sources, it’s indicated that about 30% of Samsung’s HBM chip sales in the first half of this year were to China.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade noted that, unlike Japan and the Netherlands, South Korea cannot fully align with U.S. export control measures due to its significant reliance on exports to China.

Per the Chosun Daily citing data from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and the Korea International Trade Association, it’s shown that in July of this year, South Korea’s exports to China increased by 14.9% year-on-year to USD 11.4 billion, the highest since October 2022. Notably, memory exports surged 89% year-on-year to USD 6.8 billion.

Semiconductor exports saw particularly strong growth, with chip exports rising 49% year-on-year. In June this year, Korea’s memory exports also amounted to USD 8.8 billion, accounting for 65.8% of total semiconductor exports, which reportedly represents the highest proportion in two years since December 2021.

These figures reflect South Korea’s robust performance in the chip sector and the strong demand from the Chinese market for Korean semiconductors and other ICT products.

Meanwhile, due to the U.S.’s strict restrictions on chip manufacturing technology, China is striving for breakthroughs in the HBM field.

The HBM market is currently dominated by South Korea’s SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and the U.S.’s Micron, all of which are producing the latest standard HBM3 chips.

However, a report from Tom’s Hardware, citing industry sources, has indicated that Chinese companies, including CXMT, have made progress in developing HBM and are in the early stages of production. Huawei is also collaborating with other Chinese companies, with plans to produce HBM2 chips by 2026.

Read more

• [News] ChangXin Memory Technologies in China Has Reportedly Begun Mass Production of HBM2
• [News] Progress Made in Chinese Consortium’s Development of HBM, Reportedly Targeting HBM2 Production by 2026

(Photo credit: Samsung)