The global smartphone market has seen a continuous decline for nine consecutive quarters, with only the foldable phone category remaining resilient and maintaining growth. Android smartphone manufacturers seem to view this category as a lifeline, having released a total of 13 new foldable phones in the past three months, setting a record for the number of new foldable phones introduced in half a year.

The intensified release of foldable phone models not only reflects the sense of urgency among smartphone manufacturers but also signifies a shift towards foldable technology in the mobile industry.

Currently, the foldable phone market is not as well-established as the traditional flat-screen market, presenting opportunities and variables. All Android manufacturers aim to leverage foldable phones to enhance their market positioning, achieve high-end differentiation, and engage in distinctive competition with Apple.

In fact, during the third quarter, there were subtle changes in the landscape of the foldable phone market in China according to IJIWEI’s report. Huawei, which once dominated the foldable phone market, has seen its market share decline. OPPO and Honor have managed to surpass Huawei in terms of sales volume in the flip-fold and single-product categories.

Next year, Huawei and Samsung plan to introduce more competitively priced foldable phones, and other Android manufacturers are expected to follow suit, driving accelerated expansion in the foldable phone market.

13 New Foldable Phones Launched in 3 Months

In the latter half of this year, smartphone manufacturers including Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, Samsung, Huawei and Transsion, have been on a roll, releasing a remarkable 13 new foldable phones within just three months. This surge in foldable phone launches has almost doubled the number of foldable devices introduced in the first half of the year.

Each smartphone manufacturer has focused on different aspects of foldable phones. Honor has been particularly aggressive in the foldable phone market, introducing three new models in just four months, constantly pushing the boundaries of thinness. In July, Honor managed to reduce the thickness of foldable phones to the millimeter era with a body thickness of 9.9mm.

In September, the Honor V Purse, an outward folding phone, had a body thickness of 8.6mm in its folded state and weighed only 214g, once again setting a new record for slim foldable phones in the market. In October, the Honor Magic Vs2 weighed 229g, refreshing the record for slim large-sized inward folding phones.

On the other hand, OPPO and Xiaomi have emphasized the imaging performance of their foldable phones. In addition, Samsung, Huawei, Transsion, OnePlus, and other manufacturers have each introduced innovative models like the Galaxy Z Flip 5/Fold 5, Samsung W24/W24 Flip, OnePlus Open, Huawei Mate X5, and PHANTOM V Flip 5G, incorporating cutting-edge technology into foldable phones and significantly enhancing the foldable phone experience. This surge in foldable phone innovation has become one of the standout features in this year’s smartphone market.

Reasons for the Proliferation of Foldable Phones

Recent intense launches of new foldable phones by smartphone manufacturers reflect their strong sense of urgency in the Android market.

Global smartphone markets have been persistently sluggish, declining for nine consecutive quarters due to factors like inflation, market saturation, and longer upgrade cycles. Traditional flat smartphones are no longer able to drive sustained market growth, and the smartphone market is in need of new growth engines.

Foldable phones, with their differentiated form and innovative experiences, have the potential to stimulate consumer upgrades, and smartphone manufacturers have high hopes for them, leading to the frequent release of new foldable phone models.

Currently, foldable phones are considered high-end products, and the intense launch of new foldable phone models by Android smartphone manufacturers is aimed at achieving brand premiumization and establishing differentiation from Apple.

In an effort to break through the high-end market stronghold that Apple has established, Android smartphone manufacturers, led by Samsung, have not only upgraded their high-end flat smartphones but have also been actively promoting foldable phone innovations, different from the iPhone 15 series. They aim to stimulate consumer upgrades and attract more high-end users who value large-screen experiences.

Price Key to Boosting Foldable Smartphone Penetration

In recent months, Android smartphone manufacturers have been consistently releasing new foldable phone models, driving up foldable phone sales and contributing to increased market penetration in the high-end smartphone segment during the latter half of the year.

Supply chain sources have also revealed that Samsung is planning to bring foldable phones to the mid-range market next year, further reducing price barriers and making foldable phones more accessible to a broader range of consumers.

This year, the lowest price for foldable phones has already dropped to 3,659 yuan (RMB), setting a new record. In the upcoming year, more manufacturers will introduce higher-value foldable phone products, thus accelerating the broader adoption of foldable phones.

TrendForce believes that the driving force behind the foldable market’s expansion is the reduced costs and the expansion strategies of Chinese brands.

Looking at TrendForce’s estimated numbers , by 2023, shipments of foldable smartphones could skyrocket to an impressive 18.3 million units, marking a 43% YoY surge. However, this only captures a slim 1.6% of the year’s total smartphone market. Fast forward to 2024, a 38% growth is anticipated, translating to a hefty 25.2 million units and nudging the market share up to 2.2%.

Looking at the medium to long term, TrendForce believes the expansion of the foldable smartphone market is inevitable. By 2027, shipments could soar to a whopping 70 million units, seizing around 5% of the global smartphone market.

At the same time, foldable phone manufacturers are exploring new product forms and driving advancements in end-user applications. While there are certain limitations in terms of size for dual-foldable screen phones, many companies have already started working on triple-foldable screen products.

Recent reports from industry insiders suggest that Huawei’s development of a triple-foldable screen phone is progressing smoothly and may be ready for launch before March next year. It’s expected that two triple-foldable screen phones will be introduced in 2024.

On the other hand, Apple’s strategy for foldable devices differs from many Android phone manufacturers, as they are more focused on mature products and not in a hurry to release foldable phones.

According to TrendForce’s research, to date, Apple’s foray into foldables has been tepid due to Apple’s unwavering obsession with user experience.

Persistent challenges with foldable tech—think panel evenness and hinge design—might be holding them back. Still, achieving perfection with larger foldable panels is somewhat simpler than their smaller counterparts. The possibility for Apple to leapfrog right into medium-sized foldable products – like laptops or tablets – still remains.

(Photo credit: Phantom)

In the fourth quarter, Qualcomm reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 24%, amounting to $8.67 billion for the period ending on September 24. Nevertheless, this figure exceeded the market’s projected $8.51 billion. Akash Palkhiwala, CFO of Qualcomm, stated that the smartphone market is showing signs of stabilization, and Qualcomm’s chip sales are on the path to recovery.

CEO Cristiano Amon further elaborated that most smartphone companies have successfully bring up their inventory and are now placing new orders. He expressed, “we are cautiously optimistic as we go forward with that stabilizing and the normalization of Android channel inventory.”

According to reports from China Times, Huawei, once a former client of Qualcomm, has ventured into designing and producing its smartphone chips, thus emerging as a new competitor for Qualcomm. Amon emphasized that he thought Huawei’s return to the market will affect very small to Qualcomm’s relationships with other Chinese smartphone manufacturers. CFO Palkhiwala indicated that sales to Chinese smartphone clients are expected to grow by 35% compared to the previous quarter.

Notably, Qualcomm’s prominent client, Samsung Electronics, continues to rely on Qualcomm chips for the majority of its recent devices. Amon confirmed that Qualcomm will continue to dominate the chips used in Samsung’s upcoming S24 series of smartphones. Financial analyst Logan Purk from Edward Jones highlighted that the resurgence in demand for Android smartphones is closely tied to the significant growth in demand from Chinese OEM manufacturers. This may be a key factor contributing to Qualcomm’s consistent performance and improved outlook for the next quarter.

TrendForce, focusing on the smartphone industry, analyzed that the completion of inventory adjustments by leading process manufacturers is set to stimulate activity for upstream foundries. However, when it comes to the overall recovery of the smartphone market, there are still many uncertainties present, such as ongoing conflicts, the economic revival of major powers, and geopolitical factors. Even though the market has shifted from an extremely pessimistic outlook, there is still no clear signal supporting an optimistic and upward trend. Consequently, a slight growth of approximately 3% over the course of the year is expected.
(Image: Qualcomm)

According to IJIWEI’s report, industry insiders reveal that Huawei has set a goal of shipping 100 million smartphones next year. This target represents a 40% increase over earlier predictions, as various market research firms had previously estimated Huawei’s smartphone shipments for the next year to be around 70 million units.

Huawei’s aggressive sales plan for the upcoming year is propelled by the favorable reception of its recently launched flagship smartphone series, the Mate 60. By the end of this year, Huawei aims to have shipped approximately 20 million units of the Mate 60 series, contributing to the projected annual smartphone shipments ranging between 40 million and 50 million units. This surpasses the previous year’s shipments of 30 million units by 30 to 70%.

With the growing shipment volumes, the supply of Huawei Mate 60 series smartphones featuring organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels has also seen an increase recently, with suppliers ramping up their production rates.

The Huawei Mate 60 series has become a much-anticipated success in the consumer electronics market. During the Huawei Autumn Full-Scene New Product Launch event, Huawei’s Terminal BG CEO and Chairman of the Intelligent Automotive Solution BU, Richard Yu, expressed his delight with the positive response to the “Pioneer Program” products.

Huawei is currently working around the clock to meet the surging demand for its products. The “Pioneer Program” includes the Mate 60 Pro, Mate 60 Pro+, and the foldable Mate X5.

Several supply chain sources and analysts have indicated that since earlier this year, Huawei has been steadily increasing its stock of components such as lenses, cameras, printed circuit boards, and various other parts to meet its shipment targets. Huawei has also requested that its sole 4G mobile chip supplier in the U.S., Qualcomm, deliver the full-year orders before June.

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(Photo credit: Flickr)

Major optical manufacturer, Largan Precision, held its online Q3 earnings conference on October 12, 2023. During the session, Chairman Lin En-ping’s responses to inquiries from analysts conveyed that the previously sluggish smartphone market might finally witness an upturn in Q4, as the iPhone 15 Pro Max’s robust pre-order performance surpassed market expectations. This bodes well for downstream customers’ willingness to procure lenses, and high-end lens demand is expected to rise.

TrendForce’s Insight:

1. Positive Signals Emerge from Largan Precision’s Statement

Since the beginning of 2023, the global smartphone market has been experiencing a general slump, influenced by factors such as China’s post-pandemic economic recovery falling short of expectations, rampant inflation, and uncertainty about economic prospects. Looking back at the previous Q1 and Q2 earnings conferences held by Largan Precision, Chairman Lin En-ping consistently displayed a relatively pessimistic outlook when addressing questions from financial analysts. This pessimism can be attributed to the subdued end-user demand, resulting in a natural decline in procurement momentum among downstream customers, which has made it challenging for Largan Precision to foresee clear future order demand.

However, with the arrival of Q4, the traditional peak season for smartphones, Chairman Lin En-ping provided a more positive response during the latest conference. This shift in stance can be attributed to the better-than-expected pre-order status of the high-end iPhone 15 Pro Max and the subsequent improvement in procurement momentum among downstream customers. Furthermore, there has been a resurgence in overall demand for high-end lenses. It is anticipated that the end demand for smartphones may improve in the upcoming Q4.

2. Increased Willingness for Lens Upgrades

Google is set to follow the lead of industry giants like Apple and Samsung by manufacturing its Pixel 8 series smartphones in India, with plans to supply the market starting in 2024.

“Today we see an even greater opportunity to make Pixel smartphones available to more people in India, and are very excited to announce our plan to manufacture Pixel smartphones in India. We intend to start with the Pixel 8, and will partner with international and domestic manufacturers to produce Pixel smartphones locally. We expect these devices to start to roll out in 2024, joining India’s ‘Make in India’ initiative,” said Rick Osterloh, Senior Vice President of Devices and Services at Google, emphasizing the significant opportunity for Google in serving Indian consumers with Pixel phones.

However, Google has not disclosed specific production quantities or the proportion of Pixel phones that will be manufactured in India, nor have they revealed information about their manufacturing partners’ factory locations.

According to insiders, India’s largest contract manufacturing company, Dixon Technologies, and Foxconn’s Indian subsidiary are among the competitors in this effort to produce Pixel phones.

Under the policies promoted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has attracted increased investments from Apple. This year, Apple has not only opened two Apple-owned stores in India but has also moved more of its iPhone production from China to India. The recently launched iPhone 15 is the first iPhone manufactured in India.

A majority of Samsung smartphones sold in India are produced at Samsung’s Noida facility, the largest smartphone manufacturing plant globally, which manufactures the Galaxy A and M series. With the introduction of the Galaxy S23 series earlier this year, Samsung has also confirmed that the Galaxy S23 series for the Indian market will be produced locally. In addition to Apple and Samsung, Chinese Android smartphone manufacturers have also established partnerships with local Indian manufacturers.

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