As the mass production of the new iPhone draws near, TrendForce, in April this year, raised concerns in the smartphone industry about several design changes made to the 2023 iPhone models almost half a year ahead of production. The industry is closely monitoring whether related components can keep up with the production schedule to ensure smooth execution of subsequent assembly plans. Recently, TrendForce provided updates on the production progress and details of these components.

According to TrendForce’s investigation, two critical components in the iPhone supply chain are causing worries about potential supply issues – the CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) and the titanium alloy frame. Currently, there are still bottlenecks in the production of these components that need to be overcome.

Regarding the CIS, the bottleneck arises from Sony’s supply of the new 48MP CIS, which is expected to be used in iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus. This CIS adopts a new stacked design, separating the CIS photodiodes and peripheral transistors into three layers instead of the previous double-layer structure. This poses a significant challenge to yield rates, and despite Sony’s efforts to increase production capacity to cope with the yield ramp-up difficulties, the supply situation does not meet anticipated levels, affecting the initial production schedule of the entire device.

As for the titanium frame, due to the elimination of the pressure-sensitive button structure and the slight adjustment in the opening for the mute switch, the suppliers need to re-allocate, set up, and verify the basic operating time of the production lines.

Additionally, the processing procedures for titanium are more complicated compared to stainless steel, which leads to longer production lead times. TrendForce confirmed recently that the titanium frame for the new iPhone is currently one of the components with lower yield rates and supply stability. Therefore, suppliers have expanded production capacity by 20-30% and are working diligently to ensure that even if the initial supply is tight during the early stages of production, they can respond accordingly, ensuring that the launch and supply of the entire device will not be affected.

Given the supply constraints of these two components mentioned above, TrendForce believes that Apple may increase the production proportion of the two Pro models in 3Q23 to fill the gap caused by the initial iPhone 15’s production capacity shortage. This adjustment, in an optimistic scenario, will only involve shifting production proportions between different models in two quarters, with no impact on the annual shipment performance. TrendForce assesses that this possibility is more likely under the current circumstances.

However, if the CIS yield bottleneck is difficult to overcome, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the shipment volume of the 2023 iPhone models. TrendForce will continue to monitor the situation closely.

With the release of Apple’s Vision Pro, its Micro OLED display technology has caught the attention of more people. In fact, global Micro OLED display manufacturers have been working in this field for many years. In recent years, Chinese manufacturers have been particularly active in this area. TrendForce has compiled the recent global manufacturers’ product and technological advancements in this article.

eMagin

Founded in 1996 and headquartered in New York, eMagin Corporation is a leading enterprise in Micro OLED display technology, serving world-class clients in the military, consumer, medical, and industrial markets. Since 2001, eMagin’s micro-displays have been used in AR/VR, aircraft cockpits, heads-up display systems, thermal imagers, night vision goggles, future weapon systems, and various other applications. In May 2023, eMagin announced its final merger agreement with Samsung Display, with Samsung acquiring eMagin for $218 million.

Sony

Sony began developing the foundational display technology for Micro OLED in 2009, with the aim of applying it to electronic viewfinders for cameras.

In June 2023, Apple released the Vision Pro, featuring two Sony Micro OLED displays with a size of 1.42 inches, a resolution of 3648×3144, a pixel density of 3391ppi, and a module brightness of up to 6000 nits. It has been reported that this high-spec Micro OLED screen is also priced high, with a single screen costing $350, and its production capacity is limited.

MICROOLED

MICROOLED was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Grenoble, France. The company is dedicated to the development and manufacturing of high-resolution Micro OLED micro-displays. In January 2012, MICROOLED introduced its first 0.61-inch micro-display with 5.4 million pixels. In August 2012, STMicroelectronics invested 6 million euros in MICROOLED, and the two companies initiated collaborative development work. In 2015, MICROOLED announced that it had sold over 150,000 0.38-inch WVGA micro-displays. In 2020, MICROOLED announced a funding of 8 million euros to accelerate the development of consumer-grade AR solutions.

Kopin

Kopin Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Westborough, Massachusetts. Since 1990, the company has been providing LCD, LCoS, and OLED micro-displays for military, enterprise, industrial, medical, and consumer wearable products. In March 2023, Kopin announced significant progress in the Helmet-Mounted Display System (HMDS) project for the F-35 fighter jet, completing performance tests for OLED micro-displays.

Kopin has also been involved in the establishment of Chinese Micro OLED manufacturers, such as Kunming O-Film (now renamed “Yunnan Visionox Opto-Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.”) and Lakefield Optoelectronics.

BOE

In August 2017, BOE announced a joint investment of 1.15 billion RMB to establish Kunming BOE Display Technology Co., Ltd. (now renamed “Yunnan Invensight Optoelectronics Technology”). The company is engaged in the production, sales, and research and development of OLED micro-displays.

BOE announced further investment of 3.4 billion RMB for the construction of a 12-inch OLED micro-display production line to meet the demand of the high-end AR/VR market in December 2019. The designed capacity is 10k wafers per month, with main products including 0.99-inch and 1.31-inch OLED micro-displays.

In March 2021, BOE disclosed on the investor interaction platform that the 8-inch silicon-based Micro OLED production line of Yunnan Invensight Optoelectronics Technology had achieved mass production in August 2019 and is currently ramping up production. The newly established 12-inch Micro OLED production line will be completed in three phases and is expected to be fully completed in January 2024, with a designed annual capacity of 5.23 million wafers.

In May 2023, BOE unveiled its 1.3-inch 4K (3552×3840) Micro OLED display at SID Display Week.

Seeya Technology

Seeya Technology was founded in October 2016 and focuses on the research and production of 12-inch silicon-based OLED micro-display. In 2022, DJI released the Goggles 2, the world’s first consumer-grade FPV goggles utilizing Micro OLED screens, which features Seeya’s 0.49-inch 1920×1080 Micro OLED micro-display.

Lakeside Optoelectronics

Lakeside Optoelectronics was established in April 2017. In May 2023, Lakeside Optoelectronics announced a partnership with Panasonic. Prior to this, Lakeside Optoelectronics had established long-term strategic partnerships with Panasonic and US-based Lighting Silicon Corporation. Panasonic’s next-generation smart VR glasses, MeganeX, will incorporate Lakeside Optoelectronics’ third-generation Micro OLED display. The product is expected to be launched in 2023.

Samsung Display

In early 2022, Samsung Display announced that it was developing Micro OLED displays, with the project in its early development stage. The company planned to start building its first production line in 2023, begin mass production of Micro OLED displays in 2024, and expand capacity in 2025 for full commercialization by 2026.

In December 2022, South Korean media reported that Samsung had started ordering equipment for a 300mm pilot production line, with SFA Engineering and AP Systems as the equipment suppliers. The production line will be located in Samsung’s A2 factory in Asan, South Korea. Samsung aims to receive the first equipment in the first quarter of 2023 and start volume production by the end of 2023, with a monthly capacity of 6,400 wafers. The production line is expected to be fully operational in 2024.

In May 2023, eMagin announced the final merger agreement with Samsung Display. Samsung Display will acquire eMagin for a price of $218 million.

LG Display

In February 2023, it was reported by South Korean media that Meta would collaborate with SK Hynix and LG Display to develop Micro OLEDs for AR/VR headsets. Meta would primarily handle semiconductor design, SK Hynix would be responsible for wafer production, and LG Display would complete the OLED deposition on wafers and perform the final step of cutting them into Micro OLED panels.

It was mentioned that SK Hynix’s Icheon headquarters in Gyeonggi Province has three DRAM production lines: M10, M14, and M16. The production line designated for Micro OLED wafer production is the M10 line, which uses 12-inch wafers as the standard and has a monthly production capacity of 100,000 wafers. If product development proceeds smoothly, they plan to start producing 30,000 wafers per month from 2025-2026. Additionally, the team is expected to utilize 28nm or 45nm nodes for Micro OLED wafer production.

Epson

Epson has been conducting research on OLED-related technologies for nearly 20 years and has released several smart glasses equipped with Epson Micro OLEDs. Epson’s VM-40 AR optical module features a 0.453-inch 1920 x 1080 Micro OLED display.

(Photo credit: Apple)

Sony has provided more information about the release of its PS VR2 through its official blog. According to its latest blog post about this product, the new VR headset, which is the main part of a PS VR2 bundle or package, will hit the market on February 22, 2023. The retail price of the entire bundle is now set at US$549. The bundle comprises the PS VR headset, two Sense controllers, and a set of stereo headphones. While the price of the PS VR2 is higher than that of the PS5 (i.e., US$499 for the standard PS5 and US$399 for the Digital Edition of the console), it is worth noting that the previous generation of the PS VR headset—the PS VR—priced the same as the PS4 Pro (i.e., US$399). Also, if we include two previous-generation PS VR controllers (i.e., the Move controllers) that cost US$49 each, then consumers would pay a total of US$497. Hence, the price difference between the older PS VR bundle and the PS VR2 bundle is almost US$50; and this is actually a fairly reasonable reflection of the cost of the new hardware. After all, the PS VR2 and the Sense controller incorporate quite a few new features and components such as eye-tracking and haptic feedback.

Generally speaking, Sony’s plan is not about making the PS VR2 more expensive than the latest PS console, per se, but rather about following a pricing strategy that is specific to its VR devices. It should be pointed out that for the previous generation, Sony sold the headset separately from the supporting controller. There was no bundle back then. Now, the company only sells the PS VR2 in a package deal that includes the headset and two motion controllers. Because of this change in sales strategy, consumers feel a price hike. As for the possibility of Sony selling standalone PS VR2 headsets in the future, TrendForce believes such move will be unlikely mainly because Sony is focusing on gaming experience rather than instinctively trying to raise the market penetration rate of the PS VR2.

When the PS VR was launched, the gaming experience that it provided was affected by the low market penetration rate of the PS4 Pro. Learning from this lesson, Sony has removed forward compatibility from the hardware and software designs of the PS VR2. Therefore, the combination of the PS VR2 bundle and the PS5 console is now the only way to get the most ideal VR gaming experience from Sony. And with this approach, Sony hopes to raise the market penetration rate of the PS VR as a whole. Moreover, the gaming experience for users of the PS VR2 will be mainly immersive. So, in addition to the specially designed video and audio content, the PS VR2 will also feature a wider range of operations and a greater variety of feedback mechanisms. Additionally, the game content for the PS VR2 will be designed specifically for the Sense controller. All these details again reveal a strategy that insists on a total package for consumers.

PS VR2 Shipments Are Forecasted to Reach 1.6 Million Units for 2023

While pricing will definitely affect the sales volume of the PS VR2, it is also important to remember that the game console market targets a just few particular subsections of consumers. VR gaming is thus a narrow segment within this niche market, and VR gaming devices are never going to reach the same scale in sales when compared with the more typical consumer electronic devices. Furthermore, game console users as a group tend to be willing to spend more than do most other consumers. Hence, providing a proper gaming experience is a much more effective way to grow the VR gaming market as opposed to trying to keep hardware prices down.

And for the reasons described above, we can also anticipate that the cumulative sales volume of the PS VR2 will unlikely be comparable to that of Meta’s Quest 2, which has reached the level of tens of millions. However, the PS VR2 should have no problem reaching the 5~10% market penetration rate that is already attained by the PS5. TrendForce projects that the cumulative total sales volume of the PS5 console will surpass 30 million units by the end of 2022. Considering the impact of the weakening economy on consumer spending and the lack of VR games in the initial period of adoption, some gamers will put off purchasing the PS VR2 until they believe the time is right. Still, shipments of this device are forecasted to reach 1.6 million units for 2023. The key factor that could push sales of the PS VR2 even higher is whether its games have the content that complements its hardware and thus provide an exceptionally immersive experience.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

Sony stated in an earnings call that PS5 shipments totaled only 11.5 million units in the last fiscal year (2Q21 to 1Q22), missing the target of 14.8 million units. Increasing PS5 game console production will be the company’s main task for now and sales are expected to rise to 18 million units this fiscal year. In addition, Sony also stated that it will strengthen live broadcast services and extend game services to other devices, as well as step up its VR business.

PS5 sales will continue to grow in 2022 but market instability remains

Although Sony had high expectations going into the launch of the PS5 and market reception was good, the PS5’s final sales volume was stifled by production hamstrung as a result of component shortages. Therefore, Sony specifically mentioned in the Business Segment Briefings, comparing US retailer events sold PS4 to the PS5, the PS4 sold an average of 6 units per minute, while the PS5 now sells approximately 1,000 units per minute, demonstrating the strong market demand for PS5.

At the beginning of the PS5 release, there were reports of an insufficient supply of components. When the PS5 was released at the end of 2020, it had been in production for several months and accumulated a certain amount of inventory. Even if production capacity was in short supply when the console was released, Sony could still meet some market demand in the first year with its inventory and then increase production capacity in 2021 to make up the difference. However, in 2021, semiconductor production capacity was also in short supply. Not only game console products, but numerous other products experienced a shortage of components. Naturally, Sony was unable to further increase the supply of PS5 consoles, resulting in PS5 sales coming in lower than originally expected. Sales even declined in 1Q22. As the imbalance between supply and demand of semiconductors gradually eases in 2022, Sony predicts that PS5 production will begin to increase to fulfill market demand and announced a sales target for this fiscal year of 18 million units.

Even so, there remain many uncertainties in 2022. First of all, although pandemic lockdowns in China have yet to directly affect the assembly and production of game consoles in Shandong, the risk of potential fallout still exists given the uncertainty of pandemic development. Secondly, demand from the overall consumer market may be exhausted in 2022. This is due to unfavorable factors such as inflation, wars, pandemics, and rising energy prices. Disposable income in 2022 is forecast to shrink as a result and force consumers to give up some non-essentials or delay purchases. So this may cause consumers to delay replacing their current console with a PS5. A combination of the original dearth of PS5 supply and the impact of the scalper market seriously depleted the stock of products on the market. Some consumers who were eager to enjoy new console games may have switched over to buying an Xbox Series X/S first which may contribute to PS5’s 2022 annual sales volume falling short of Sony’s estimate. TrendForce expects that volume will only reach 14.34 million units. Even if this forecast references the range of Sony’s fiscal year (2Q22 to 1Q23), estimated sales volume will only increase to 16 million units.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

The shipment performance of TV brands in 1H21 benefited from COVID-19 economic relief funds in the U.S., driving a continuing boom in North American shipments, according to TrendForce’s investigations. At the same time, TV brands continued to replenish panel inventories, pushing up panel prices. As the pandemic slowed down in Europe and the United States in 2H21, life returned to normal and pandemic stimulus no longer applied, challenging demand levels. In addition, rising raw material and freight prices pushed up whole device cost, forcing TV brands to pass costs onto retail pricing. Even though TV brands staked their hopes on the two major annual yearend sales promotion events of Singles Day in China (the biggest shopping day of the year globally, online and IRL) and Black Friday, sales performance was poor due to high costs leading to a slump in end-user demand and eventually causing TV shipments to decline by 3.2% annually to 210 million units in 2021.

TrendForce further indicates that panel supply and overall production capacity will be ample in 2022, dispelling severe TV panel price fluctuations while ushering in steady and moderate fluctuations as a replacement. After a sharp revision in TV panel prices in the 2H21, this year’s panel pricing is more advantageous to the planning of TV brands. In addition, the severe impact of the pandemic in Southeast Asia and emerging markets and high panel prices last year caused TV brands to reduce the scale of small-sized 23.6-inch, 32-inch, and 43-inch products, forcing a deferral of demand. In 2022, the pricing of small-sized panels will be close to panel manufacturers’ cash cost which will help TV brands recapture a larger proportion of small-sized panel shipments. The proportion of shipments below 39-inch will remain at 25%, medium-sized 40~59-inch panels will remain at 55%, and large-sized panels above 60-inch will remain the focus of international brands with market share expected to rise to 20%. Benefiting from the deferral of small-sized panel demand, TV shipments in 2022 will grow by 3.4% to 217 million units.

OLED TV growth to slow down in 2022, annual growth rate to settle at 27%

In 2021, OLED TVs benefited from soaring LCD prices in the previous two years. This was also the case with 55-inch 4K O/C products. The price difference between the two has narrowed from a multiple of 4.7 in early 2020 to 1.8 in mid-2021, thereby incentivizing more TV brands to switch to producing OLED TVs when LCD panel supply is limited and driving OLED TV shipments to 6.7 million units in 2021, or 70% growth YoY. Although Samsung Electronics intends to join the white OLED camp and simultaneously launch QD OLED TVs this year, the continuing falling pricing of LCD panels and the price of OLED TV panels (subject to LG Display’s strategy of increasing pricing as opposed to dropping them) may disrupt Samsung Electronics’ rollout of OLED TVs. If Samsung Electronics fails to launch spring OLED TV models, its original shipment target of 1.5 million units will inevitably be affected. However, whether it launches OLED TV models in spring or summer, Samsung Electronics will take advantage of its brand and channel advantages irrespective of other considerations to take the OLED TV market by storm and aim for a market share of 15%.

Annual growth rate of Mini LED TVs doubled, shipments push towards 4.5 million units

TCL has opened up new horizons for TV products after releasing its first Mini LED TV in 2020. In 2021, Samsung Electronics launched a series of 50-85-inch mid/high-end 4K and flagship 55-85-inch 8K Mini LED models, with shipments exceeding one million units in the first year, reaching 1.5 million units, and boosting overall Mini LED TV shipments in 2021 to 2.1 million units. In addition to Samsung Electronics and TCL continuing to utilize Mini LED in 2022, more TV brands will also join the fray. Overall Mini LED TV shipments will race towards 4.5 million units. SONY showed its 8K 85-inch and 75-inch TVs for the first time at CES at the beginning of the year. Sony’s flagship 4K 85-inch, 75-inch, and 65-inch models were the most notable at CES and Sony will join Samsung and LG Electronics as another international brand marketing OLED and Mini LED TVs, intensifying competition in the high-end TV market.