In-Depth Analyses
DRAM Spot Market
Compared with last week, transaction prices in the spot market have generally stopped falling, but there is no sustained upward momentum. Although suppliers and other spot sellers have been firm on prices and are unwilling to make further concessions, the overall transaction volume has continued to shrink because there has been no turnaround in the demand for end products. Further observations are needed to determine the trajectory of spot prices in the future. Nevertheless, TrendForce believes that suppliers will need to further expand the scale of their production cuts in 4Q23 in order to effectively reduce their existing inventories. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.07% from US$1.451 last week to US$1.450 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market
Concluded prices have largely leveled to that of last week without dynamics for ongoing increment. Buyers, despite active stocking behaviors seen recently, are no longer following up on prices aggressively under the yet-to-be-improved level of actual end demand. Subsequent spot price trends will require further observation, though TrendForce believes that NAND Flash suppliers would be forced to expand production cuts during 4Q23 so as to further abate their existing inventory. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 0.63% this week, arriving at US$1.588.
Insights
DRAM Spot Market
The situation in the spot market has not noticeably changed from last week and is still showing sluggish demand. Additionally, as mentioned in previous bulletins, there has been an influx of chips stripped from decommissioned server DRAM modules. These chips primarily come from the two major South Korean suppliers’ legacy processes and are reused in PC DRAM and consumer DRAM products after software modifications. In terms of performance, the reused chips from the Korean suppliers can reach a data rate of 3200MT/s. Overall, the presence of these reused chips continues to exert downward pressure on spot prices, particularly for DDR4 products. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.27% from US$1.497 last week to US$1.493 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market
The spot market remains unaffected by the quarterly list prices of suppliers that have increased or leveled certain packaged dies, where sluggishness is seen lingering among overall demand under sporadic inquiries. In addition, concluded prices are still dropping slowly due to the lack of urgency among clients under sufficient stocks of the current spot market. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.14% this week, arriving at US$1.402.
Insights
TrendForce has released the latest spot prices of memory, which have continued to decline due to the impact of the stagnant market conditions. Both DRAM and NAND Flash spot prices have dropped further. The details are as follows:
DRAM Spot Market:
Compared with last week, the spot market is still not showing a noticeable improvement in terms of trading activities. Sellers are under a certain amount of pressure because some module houses have already stocked up in advance, and the demand from channels remains fairly weak. Hence, spot prices of DDR4 and DDR5 products continue to register daily drops. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.27% from US$1.501 last week to US$1.497 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market:
There has been no apparent WoW improvement to the dynamics of the NAND Flash spot market this week. Several module houses, having elevated their inventory in advance, are now experiencing a certain extent of sales pressure from a lack of betterment in demand among channel markets, which led to an on-going drop of NAND Flash prices. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.404.