With the U.S.-China tech war heating up as the U.S. election approaches, industry sources cited by the Economic Daily News report that Chinese IC design companies are rushing to place more orders with TSMC for chip production using advanced processes before the U.S. potentially imposes stricter control policies. At the same time, they are initiating a backup plan by shifting orders to Samsung for chips manufactured with advanced nodes to avoid potential future U.S. bans on Chinese companies using Taiwanese foundries.

As a result, Samsung is becoming a beneficiary of the escalating U.S.-China tech conflict, sparking a new round of competition for orders with TSMC. As of the deadline for this report, TSMC has not responded to these rumors.

Per TSMC’s second-quarter financial report, the revenue proportion from China increased significantly from 9% in the first quarter to 16% in the second quarter. This surpasses other Asia-Pacific regions, making China the second-largest source of revenue after North America, which accounts for 65%.

The same report cites sources indicating that the increase in TSMC’s revenue share from China last quarter is likely due to Chinese IC design companies sensing potential future U.S. pressure that could prevent them from placing orders with TSMC.

As a result, these companies have been placing larger orders in advance to stockpile chips, similar to the situation previously seen when Huawei’s HiSilicon placed massive orders with TSMC to stockpile chips just before being blacklisted by the U.S.

It is understood that although the related Chinese IC companies may not using the most advanced processes, they are employing relatively advanced processes, which have been developed over several years, and applied in areas such as ADAS, mobile phones, and high-speed computing. Recently, these customers have continued to place orders with TSMC and have also begun evaluating backup plan, which involves switching orders to Samsung.

Sources cited by the report also pointed out that while Chinese IC design houses would like to diversify risks regarding the relatively advanced nodes by placing orders with companies other than TSMC, they may not be allowed to collaborate with Intel. This is why Samsung may emerge as an option.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from Economic Daily News, amid U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump’s remarks claiming that Taiwan is taking away chip business and should pay the U.S. for defense, geopolitical risks have become another focal point at TSMC’s July 18 earnings call.

TSMC stated that whether the tariffs may increase is a hypothetical issue; if new tariff issues do arise, TSMC will discuss with customers and share the corresponding costs. However, it is still too early to discuss this in detail. Thus, TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei emphasized that TSMC’s overseas expansion strategy remains unchanged, including ongoing fab construction in Arizona, USA, and Kumamoto, Japan, with plans for future facilities in Europe as well.

Sources cited by the report indicate that TSMC’s statement of sharing corresponding costs with customers may imply that if additional tariffs are imposed, TSMC will seek customer assistance in bearing these costs, effectively raising prices.

TSMC pointed out that in a fragmented globalization environment, the costs for everyone—including TSMC, customers, competitors, and the entire semiconductor industry—will be higher.

TSMC plans to manage and minimize cost disparities through three methods: implementing strategic pricing to reflect the value of regional flexibility; closely cooperating with local administrations to ensure their support; and leveraging fundamental advantages such as leading manufacturing technologies and large-scale production capabilities that competitors cannot match.

Regarding TSMC’s progress on overseas expansion, the Arizona plant in the USA is scheduled to begin mass production of the 4nm process in the first half of 2025 as planned. The second plant in Arizona, following recent announcements, will offer both 3nm and 2nm processes and is expected to start mass production in 2028. The third plant in Arizona is expected to provide 2nm or more advanced process technologies.

Regarding the Kumamoto plant in Japan, the target is to commence mass production in the fourth quarter of this year. Previously, TSMC and its joint venture partners announced plans to establish a second wafer plant in Japan specializing in 40nm, 12/16nm, and 6/7nm process technologies. This plant aims to support strategic customers in consumer, automotive, industrial, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications. Construction of the second wafer plant in Japan is planned to start in the second half of 2024, with production expected to begin by the end of 2027.

As for its European plant, TSMC plans to begin construction on the Dresden, Germany, facility in the fourth quarter of 2024. TSMC emphasizes that its overseas expansion depends on customer demand and government support, aiming to maximize shareholder value and ensure that its long-term gross margin target remains above 53%.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from Commercial Times, with expectations that tensions between the U.S. and China remain unresolved for the time being, and China’s continued production in mature process semiconductor foundries and communication equipment, the trend of decoupling from China is likely to expand.

The U.S.-China trade war has continued for several years, with the U.S. announcing in May an additional tariff on Chinese imports, including a substantial 50% tariff on semiconductor products manufactured in China by 2025. This move has further intensified the trade conflict between the two superpowers.

Thus, as per the same report, as concerns over overcapacity in various industrial products in China heighten this year, coupling with the unresolved U.S.-China relations, Taiwanese foundries including UMC, VIS, Powerchip, and networking companies such as WNC, SERCOM and Arcadyan may be benefited from the potential increased outsourcing orders.

Consequently, despite aggressive pricing competition from Chinese mature process foundries, the average selling price (ASP) and overall operational performance of Taiwan’s major mature process foundries have exceeded expectations in the first half of this year.

TrendForce previously indicated that, the supply chain’s order-shifting has become more proactive with the imposition of US tariffs. Qualcomm, which began cooperation discussions with Vanguard in 2021, has made its production plans more aggressive this year. This has prompted Vanguard to expand the first-phase capacity of its new Fab5 plant by 3Q24 and to complete cross-plant validation for Qualcomm’s PMIC to meet demand. Since 2022, MPS has also started shifting orders, including plans with both Vanguard and PSMC.

In recent years, the limitations on Chinese companies’ expansion in the U.S. have also allowed Taiwanese networking companies to capture significant American infrastructure opportunities. WNC covers optical fiber, 5G FWA, and enterprise networking businesses, with over 60% of its revenue from the Americas. SERCOMM Corporation has penetrated the North American optical fiber broadband upgrade market, securing key North American telecom operators. Meanwhile, Arcadyan Technologys’ optical fiber products have entered top-tier North American telecom operators.

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(Photo credit: iStock)

As semiconductor manufacturing enters the Angstrom Era, there have been significant adjustments in architecture and circuit design. To free up more surface area on chips, moving power delivery to the backside has become a mainstream consensus, making the Backside Power Delivery Network (BSPDN) the premier solution in advanced manufacturing.

According to a report from Commercial Times, regarding BSPDN, leading companies such as TSMC, Intel, and imec (Belgian Microelectronics Research Center) have proposed different approaches focusing on wafer thinning, atomic layer deposition (ALD) inspection, and wafer regeneration solutions, with mass production starting from 2026, benefiting supply chains.

Among them, TSMC’s Super Power Rail is considered direct and effective, albeit complex and expensive to implement. To reflect its value, TSMC has adjusted its pricing strategy. According to the report, the foundry leader has successfully raised prices for advanced processes, with further increases slated for January 1 next year, particularly targeting the 3/5-nanometer AI product lines with adjustments ranging from 5% to 10%.

Industry sources cited by the same report point out that there are several technological breakthroughs in backside power delivery. One critical aspect involves polishing the wafer backside to a thickness close enough for transistor contact. However, this process significantly compromises the wafer’s rigidity. Therefore, after front-side polishing, it’s essential to bond a carrier wafer to support the backside manufacturing process.

Additionally, technologies like nano Through-Silicon Vias (nTSV) require more equipment for ensuring uniform copper metal deposition within nano-scale holes.

Therefore, leading companies have proposed different approaches focusing on wafer thinning, atomic layer deposition (ALD) inspection, and wafer regeneration solutions. This development is benefiting related supply chain entities such as Kinik Company, Skytech, and Phoenix Silicon International Corporation.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from Commercial Times, Arthur Chiao, Chairman of Winbond, stated that this upward market cycle for the memory sector has arrived on time. Reportedly, customers are not worried about shortages, and all products made by Winbond will sell well all year round, boosting the momentum in 2025.

Looking at Winbond’s recent revenue trend, the company’s performance has risen in the second quarter, further hinting that the upward market cycle has arrived on time. Chao anticipates that this upward cycle could last for two years, making 2025 a good year throughout, with a possible downturn in 2026.

Considering Winbond’s NOR Flash, which has held the largest global market share since 2020, Chiao noted that this product is widely used in automotive, communication, telecommunications, wearable devices, and other technological applications. Overall, its sales recovery also represents a revival of the electronics market.

Regarding individual industries, as per the same report, Winbond expects the PC end market to grow by 5% to 10% in 2024. The mobile phone market, which has been in decline for three years, is also rebounding from its trough, with an estimated single-digit percentage growth. Consumer products, the first sector to undergo inventory adjustments, are also the fastest to recover. Networking and communications, driven by the growing application of Wi-Fi 7, is also optimistic in the second half of the year.

Winbond is also implementing the NCNT (Non-Taiwan, Non-China) strategy. Arthur Chiao emphasized that global trends are irreversible, and the company is starting to make early preparations in response to customer demands. Winbond’s General Manager, Pei-Ming Chen, added that the company will outsource packaging and testing to a partner factory in Malaysia and will first conduct product verification work. Although costs will rise, customers have indicated that it is acceptable.

Chiao further stated that in response to the AI trend, Winbond has adjusted its strategy and business organization. The company is transitioning from a component supplier to a service-oriented manufacturer and have established a dedicated business unit for customized memory solutions (CMS).

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(Photo credit: Winbond)