As the U.S. presidential election draws to a close, presidential candidate Donald Trump is virtually confirmed as the 47th President of the United States. Trump secured victory in all key swing states, winning 312 electoral votes and defeating Harris by a substantial margin.

Additionally, the Republican Party has gained control of both chambers of Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 seats in the House of Representatives, signaling the onset of full Republican control in U.S. governance.

Given this backdrop, what impact could full Republican control have? How might Trump’s policies shape the economic outlook?

Tariffs and Trade

Trump’s tax agenda is anticipated to emphasize extending key provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), such as reducing the top individual income tax rate and lifetime personal exemption limits, with intentions to make these cuts permanent.

Furthermore, he proposes reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and exempting tips and overtime pay from income taxes.

On trade policy, Trump intends to implement tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

Immigration

Under Democratic administrations, a relatively permissive approach to illegal immigration has resulted in a record surge of undocumented immigrants, potentially endangering domestic security. Trump’s policy seeks to comprehensively remove illegal immigrants from the U.S. He has vowed to restore several of his previous-term immigration measures, such as the “Remain in Mexico” program and the travel ban.

Moreover, Trump plans to cease refugee admissions entirely and significantly limit the inflow of legal immigrants.

Energy

Trump supports traditional energy sources and has dismissed climate change as “a scam.” He has pledged to “unlock” the potential of America’s energy industry by rolling back restrictions on oil and natural gas extraction and promoting the construction of additional refineries.

He also plans to revoke the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aiming to scale back subsidies for wind, solar energy, and electric vehicles, while accelerating approvals for coal and nuclear power projects.

Financial Regulation

Trump has historically maintained a more lenient approach to financial regulation. Last year, in July, the Fed introduced a draft of the Basel III Accord, initially mandating that banks with assets over $100 billion retain sufficient capital to mitigate potential losses. In September of this year, the Fed proposed increasing the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET-1) capital ratio for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), often referred to as “too big to fail” institutions, to 9%.

Trump’s election could potentially result in the weakening or postponement of Basel III regulations.

Impact on the Economy

Based on the key policies outlined above, we have referred to the report by Oxford Economics to assess how Trump’s policies may influence the economic trajectory.

The report suggests that if Trump is elected with full Republican control, extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside the exemption of tips and overtime pay from income taxes could provide a short-term boost to real GDP growth of 1%. Over the longer term, however, restrictive immigration and higher tariffs on imports could slow economic growth.

(Source: Oxford Economics)

On the inflation front, fiscal expansion and increased import tariffs are anticipated to push inflation higher by 0.8 percentage points. To counter potential inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts by 2026 and initiate rate hikes in 2027.

(Source: Oxford Economics)

In conclusion, under a fully Republican administration led by Trump, tariff policies are likely to be quickly enacted through executive orders, while the continuation of the TCJA is projected to further enhance individual asset growth. Concurrently, corporate tax cuts may attract capital inflows and stimulate potential fiscal spending, boosting short-term GDP growth.

Nevertheless, potential labor shortages from stringent immigration measures and inflationary pressures from higher tariffs may pose challenges to long-term GDP growth.

Reference

• Agenda47 | Donald J. Trump
• Upside risks have increased in toss-up US election

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(Photo Credit: Donald J. Trump Facebook)

美國總統大選於11月5日舉行，截至美東時間11月6日早上8:00為止，總統候選人川普已取得295張選舉人票，並且贏得了所有的搖擺州，基本上確定成為美國第47任總統。

而共和黨目前也在參議院中取得52個席位。雖然眾議院的最終結果尚未揭曉，但根據現有的開票數據，共和黨以204席領先民主黨的188席。如果共和黨同時拿下眾議院，美國將進入共和黨全面執政的局面。

而在共和黨的完全執政下，川普有哪些政策會對經濟產生影響? 而這些政策又將如何引導經濟的走勢呢?

關稅與貿易

川普在稅收政策方面將著重於延續《減稅與就業法案》（TCJA）中的減稅措施(包括個人最高所得稅率和個人終身免稅額的降低)，並計劃將這些減稅措施永久化。此外，川普也打算將企業稅率從21%下調至15%，並免除小費以及加班費的所得稅。貿易政策方面，川普計劃對所有進口商品徵收10%至20%的關稅，並對中國的商品徵收高達60%的關稅

移民

在移民方面，由於在民主黨執政的期間對非法移民的態度較為開放，所以導致近年美國的非法移民人數不斷創高，並對美國的本土治安持續構成威脅。因此，川普的政策是盡可能地驅逐這些非法移民，而川普承諾將恢復他第一任期的移民政策，包括「留在墨西哥」以及「旅行禁令」等等，同時川普也誓言要停止接收所有難民並減少美國的合法移民。

能源

在能源方面，川普更加傾向於支持傳統能源，並且認為氣候變遷是「一場騙局」。川普承諾將釋放美國的能源系統，包括減少石油與天然氣開採所需要的限制，並鼓勵建設更多煉油的設施。此外，川普也計畫要廢除拜登政府所簽署的「通貨膨脹削減法案」，以減少對風力和太陽能發電以及電動車等相關的補貼，並加速對燃煤與核能發電的審批。

金融監管

在金融監管方面，川普的態度一向較為寬鬆。聯準會自去年7月開始提出巴賽爾協議 III 草案 ，該草案最初是要求資產超過1000億美元的銀行要保留資本以吸收潛在的損失。而聯準會今年9月最新的提案是要將全球系統重要性銀行(G-SIBs, 又稱”大到不能倒的銀行”)的普通股一級資本足率（CET-1）提升到9%，而川普的當選很有可能使巴賽爾協議 III 被進一步削弱或擱置。

對經濟的影響

綜合以上關鍵政策，我們參考了牛津經濟研究院的報告，分析川普的政策將如何影響經濟走勢。報告指出，若川普當選並由共和黨完全執政，在減稅與就業法案（TCJA）延續及小費和加班費免徵所得稅的刺激下，短期內實質GDP有望上升1個百分點。然而，長期來看，由於限制移民及提高進口關稅的影響，經濟成長可能將有所回落。

(牛津經濟研究院分析：全面川普政策情景對美國實際GDP的影響，來源：Oxford Economics)

在通膨方面，財政政策的擴張以及進口關稅的增加預計將推高通膨0.8個百分點，但聯準會可能會在2026年停止降息、2027年開始升息的方式來防止通膨快速上漲。

(牛津經濟研究院分析：全面川普政策情景對核心PCE通膨的影響，來源：Oxford Economics)

綜上所述，我們認為在川普全面執政的情況下，關稅政策很可能透過總統的行政命令迅速實施，而減稅與就業法案（TCJA）的延續預計將持續推動個人資產增長。同時，企業減稅帶來的資本流入和潛在的財政支出擴張有望刺激短期GDP增長。然而，驅逐非法移民可能引發的勞動力短缺以及關稅政策引起的通膨壓力，皆有可能對長期GDP產生下行風險。

參考

• Agenda47 | Donald J. Trump
• Upside risks have increased in toss-up US election

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(圖片來源：Donald J. Trump Facebook)