Amid the escalating tech war between China and the US, along with rising geopolitical tensions, China has accelerated its import of chip manufacturing equipment since the middle of last year to counter potential US chip sanctions, with Dutch company ASML and Japanese company Tokyo Electron (TEL) benefited the most.

Notably, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), despite US sanctions preventing China from acquiring advanced EUV lithography equipment from ASML, it reported that China’s spending on chip manufacturing equipment has reached USD 25 billion in the first half of this year, exceeding the combined total of Korea, Taiwan, and the US. SEMI data also shows that China’s spending remained strong in July and is expected to set a new annual record.

Meanwhile, per the trade data from China’s General Administration of Customs cited by Bloomberg, from January to July this year, Chinese companies imported chip manufacturing equipment worth nearly USD 26 billion, surpassing the previous record set in the same period in 2021.

SEMI projects that China will become the largest investor in new fab construction, including equipment purchases. It is expected that the country’s total spending on chip equipment for the entire year of 2024 will reach USD 50 billion.

Clark Tseng, SEMI’s senior director of market intelligence, further highlighted that at least more than 10 tier-two chip manufacturers are actively purchasing new equipment, which is driving China’s overall spending.

China is now reportedly the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

Additionally, per a report from Commercial Times, amid a global economic slowdown, China is the only region where chip manufacturing equipment spending increased in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

Tseng also noted that SEMI anticipates spending on new plant construction in China will “normalize” over the next two years.

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(Photo credit: iStock)

According to data released by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) on August 27th, Japan’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales continue to soar, with July sales up by about 20%, marking four consecutive months of double-digit growth. Sales from January to July reached a historic high for the period.

Reportedly, the sales of Japan-made chip equipment in July 2024 (based on a 3-month average basis, including exports) reached JPY 348.092 billion, a significant 23.6% increase compared to the same month last year.

This marks the seventh consecutive month of growth and the fourth consecutive month with over 10% growth. Monthly sales have surpassed JPY 300 billion for nine straight months.

Compared to the previous month (June 2024), sales increased by 1.2%, marking the eighth monthly growth in nine months.

From January to July 2024, Japan’s chip equipment sales totaled JPY 2.480115 trillion, a 16.7% increase compared to the same period last year. This figure surpasses the previous record of JPY 2.134268 trillion set in 2022, setting a new all-time high.

The upward trend is in accordance with the observation by Japan’s chip equipment giant Tokyo Electron (TEL) and the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).

Tokyo Electron (TEL) announced in its August 8 financial report that due to strong investments in AI servers, the 2024 global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market size has been revised upward from the previous estimate of around USD 100 billion (up 5% year-on-year) to over USD 100 billion.

The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) forecast report released on July 10 predicts that global chip equipment sales in 2024 are estimated to increase by 3.4% year-over-year to USD 109 billion, surpassing the USD 107.4 billion record set in 2022.

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(Photo credit: TEL)

Japanese semiconductor equipment maker Tokyo Electron (TEL) has raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year 2024 (ending March 2025), expecting an operating profit of JPY 627 billion (approximately USD 4.3 billion), an 8% increase from its previous guidance.

Tokyo Electron contributed the strong growth trend compared to the previous fiscal year, driven by China’s significant investment in mature semiconductor nodes. The company has also raised its sales and profit outlook for the period from April to September.

For the quarter ending in June, Tokyo Electron reported revenue of JPY 555 billion, reversing a declining trend seen since 2022. Operating profit for these three months was JPY 165.7 billion.

Source: TEL

The past year, to Tokyo Electron, has been in turbulence year, as initial optimism from AI demand and the semiconductor manufacturing industry was tempered by U.S. export restrictions.

Regarding the matter, Hiroshi Kawamoto, finance division officer of Tokyo Electron, stated in a conference call that there are currently no signs of the U.S. implementing stricter restrictions on chip-making tools, while the company will continue to closely monitor the situation.

As of the quarter ending in March, over 47% of its revenue came from China due to increased equipment stockpiling in anticipation of potential U.S. sanctions. In the recent quarter, nearly 50% of revenue was generated from the Chinese market.

Source: TEL

Looking ahead to the next fiscal year (FY2025), Tokyo Electron expects double-digit growth, driven by strong demand for AI servers and an increase in AI-enabled PCs and smartphones.

This resurgence in demand is anticipated to boost the market. The company expects further expansion in DRAM production and a recovery in NAND investment due to inventory adjustments. However, investment in advanced logic and foundry services is expected to offset the slowdown in mature process technologies.

According to a report from Bloomberg, the US is reportedly considering new measures and could unilaterally impose restrictions on China as early as late August. These measures would limit China’s access to AI memory and related equipment capable of producing them.

Moreover, another report from Reuters further indicates that US allies, including semiconductor equipment manufacturers from Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea—such as major Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML and Tokyo Electron—will not be affected in their shipments. The report also notes that countries whose exports will be impacted include Israel, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia. 

Bloomberg, citing sources, revealed that the purpose of these measures is to prevent major memory manufacturers like Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung Electronics from selling high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to China.

These three companies dominate the global HBM market. Reportedly, regarding this matter, Micron declined to comment, while Samsung and SK hynix did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

Bloomberg’s source also emphasized that the US has yet made a final decision. The source also state that if implemented, the new measures would cover chips such as HBM2, HBM3, and HBM3e, as well as the equipment needed to manufacture these chips.

The source further revealed that Micron will essentially not be affected by the new regulations, as Micron stopped exporting HBM to China after China banned Micron’s memory from being used in critical infrastructure in 2023.

Reportedly, it is still unclear what methods the US will use to restrict South Korean companies. One possibility is the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR). Under this rule, if a foreign-made product uses any US technology, even just a small amount, the US can impose restrictions.

Both SK hynix and Samsung are said to be relying on chip design software and equipment from US companies such as Cadence Design Systems and Applied Materials.

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(Photo credit: SK hynix)

While driving advances in HBM, foundry, and advanced packaging, AI generative applications also boosted the demand and sales of semiconductor equipment.

Recently, Japanese semiconductor equipment giant DISCO announced that its non-consolidated (individual) shipments for April to June 2024 amounted to JPY 85.7 billion, marking a 50.8% year-on-year increase. The quarterly (individual) shipment surpassed the JPY 78.5 billion from January to March 2024, setting a new record high.

DISCO pointed out that the demand for precision processing equipment related to generative AI remains solid; for consumable-type precision processing tools, the demand remains high, align with the operation rates of customers’ equipment.

Semiconductor equipment refers to specialized equipment used in the production of various types of integrated circuits and discrete semiconductor devices, encompassing various products mainly categorized into front-end process equipment and back-end process equipment.

Front-end process equipment is used in the wafer manufacturing process involving products such as lithography machines, etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, and CMP equipment.

Back-end process equipment is mainly used in the packaging and testing processes of semiconductor products to ensure product quality and reliability. Representative products include dicing equipment, packaging equipment, testing equipment, and wafer dicing saws, which are used to cut wafers into individual chips for subsequent packaging and testing. DISCO is a leading manufacturer in this segment.

Japanese semiconductor equipment holds a significant position globally, gathering numerous renowned companies such as Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi High-Tech, Nikon, and DISCO.

With the AI boom, the industry believes that sales of Japanese semiconductor equipment will continue to climb up. The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) forecasts that Japan’s semiconductor equipment sales is expected to exceed JPY 4 trillion for the first time in 2024, representing a 15% annual increase, which is projected to surpass JPY 5 trillion by 2026.

This growth is primarily benefited from the increasing demand for AI-driven GPU and HBM. In May 2024, Japanese semiconductor equipment sales surged by 27% YoY, continuing to grow and setting new monthly records.

China’s semiconductor equipment market is also enjoying robust growth driven by favorable factors like AI. Recently, data jointly released by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) and SEAJ indicated that in the first quarter of 2024, global semiconductor equipment sales totaled USD 26.4 billion, down 2% YoY and 6% QoQ, which was dragged down by the sluggish demand in some markets.

Despite the headwind globally, China’s sales reached USD 12.52 billion in the first quarter, up by 113% YoY, maintaining its position as the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Read more

• [News] Booming GPU and HBM Demand Pushes Japanese Chip Equipment Annual Sales to Record High
• [News] New Regulations Reportedly Introduced by Japan Regarding Semiconductor Exports

(Photo credit: TEL)