China’s exports showed a significant rebound in October, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) on November 7, marking the highest growth rate since July 2022.

The total export value, measured in USD, reached approximately $309 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, well above the previous month’s 2.7% growth. Imports totaled around $213.34 billion, representing a 2.3% year-on-year decline, which was a notable improvement compared to the 7.2% drop in the prior month. The trade surplus stood at $96 billion, the third-highest monthly record.

By destination, exports to the United States rose by 8.1% year-on-year, up 2.2% from the prior month, while exports to the European Union grew by 12.7%, driven in part by a rush to export ahead of anticipated trade barriers.

On the product level, crude oil imports declined by 9% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, indicative of weak domestic demand. Steel exports surged by 24.4%, showing a 13.1% increase over the prior period, pointing to excess production capacity in China’s industrial sector. Electronic exports, China’s largest category to the U.S., increased by 13.7% year-on-year, expanding by 10.7% from the previous month, though mobile phone exports declined by 0.7%, the only decline within the electronics segment.

In summary, expectations of higher tariffs on Chinese goods by the incoming U.S. administration and rising trade barriers against Chinese steel and electric vehicles have driven Chinese exporters to accelerate shipments. While this may support GDP growth, reliance on exports alone is unlikely to resolve broader economic challenges.

November 8 marks the final day of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee session, with markets closely watching for potential policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand.

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U.S. exports reached a new high, and the trade deficit continued to narrow in August, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau on October 8.

In August, U.S. exports totaled $271.8 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 5.1% (up 2% month-over-month), reaching a record high. Goods exports rose 2.5% month-over-month to $179.4 billion, the highest level since September 2022, with most categories showing growth.

However, semiconductors and crude oil exports declined by $800 million and $1.1 billion, respectively. Service exports increased by 1% month-over-month to $92.3 billion.

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Imports amounted to $342.2 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 7.56% (up 0.9% month-over-month). Goods imports fell by 1.41% month-over-month to $274.3 billion, driven by a $1 billion reduction in crude oil imports due to falling oil prices in August, along with an $1.1 billion decrease in passenger vehicle imports.

Meanwhile, service imports rose by 1.1% to $67.9 billion, reaching a record high, primarily due to increased spending on travel and intellectual property.

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The trade deficit narrowed to $70.4 billion, down 18.11% year-over-year (down 10.8% month-over-month), the smallest deficit in five months.

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Although U.S. exports continue to reach new highs, some economists expect that U.S. export growth may not be sustainable, given ongoing economic instability in China and signs of weakening growth in the eurozone. In contrast, imports are expected to continue growing, supported by strong domestic consumption demand and the resolution of recent port strikes.

Overall, the market anticipates that Trade could exert pressure on U.S. GDP growth in 2025.

China’s exports rebounded in August, marking the highest increase in 17 months, as reported by the General Administration of Customs of China on September 10. The total export value, measured in USD, reached approximately $309 billion, representing an 8.7% year-on-year growth, surpassing both the previous month’s growth of 7% and the market’s expectations of 6.5%. Meanwhile, total imports amounted to around $200.9 billion, with a modest year-on-year growth of just 0.5%, significantly lower than the previous month’s 7.2% and the market’s forecast of 2%.

China’s economy currently shows a divergence between weak domestic demand and strong external momentum. However, as more countries, including the U.S., Canada, and the EU, increase trade barriers with China, combined with a global slowdown in consumer demand, future export growth may face greater challenges. At the same time, the continued weakness in import growth reflects sluggish domestic consumption, exacerbating deflationary risks. If China is to achieve its full-year GDP growth target of 5%, it may need to introduce stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption soon.

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