Continued price hikes of TV panels, as well as a simultaneous shortage and price hike of semiconductor components required for manufacturing TV sets have forced TV brands in 2021 to reduce the shipment of their mid- and small-sized TVs in favor of the more profitable large-sized, mid- to high-end TVs instead, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. This shift is expected to propel the annual shipment of QLED TV for 2021 to 11.02 million units, a 22.4% YoY increase. On the other hand, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 7.1 million units, an 80% increase YoY. As such, both product categories are expected to break records in terms of shipment this year.

It should be pointed out that, as increased vaccinations in Europe and the US bring about an imminent easing of border restrictions, TV demand generated by the stay-at-home economy is likely to slow down. In addition, TV panel costs have remained sky-high and shown no signs of downward movement. Hence, TV brands are moving towards larger product sizes and better specifications in order to maximize profits and minimize the financial losses incurred by selling mid- and small-sized TVs, which have relatively low margins. Given the downscaling of these less profitable models, TV brands’ annual shipments will likely suffer a corresponding drop. TrendForce therefore expects total TV shipment this year to reach 220 million units, a 1.4% YoY increase.

Samsung’s Neo QLED series will help propel annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV to three million units in 2021

There has been a sharp drop in the profitability of mid- to small-sized TVs this year. In response, during the replacement period between old and new models, market leader Samsung Electronics has not only lowered the retail prices of its QLED products to attract consumers, but also released its new Neo QLED lineup, which features Mini LED backlights and resolutions ranging from UHD to 8K. Samsung’s QLED TV shipment is expected to undergo a 17% YoY increase to 9.1 million units this year, the highest annual shipment in history. In particular, Samsung’s lineup includes about 1.5 million Mini LED backlight TVs, mostly with 65-inch and 55-inch displays, and these sizes account for 33% and 30% of the company’s total Mini LED backlight TV shipment, respectively, while the ultra-large, 75-inch model will account for 17%.

TCL, on the other hand, released a relatively affordable 75-inch Mini LED backlight TV in 2020, with a 65-inch model released this year. TCL’s annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV for 2021 will likely reach 800,000 units. Apart from the aforementioned two brands, Xiaomi and LG are also eager to enter the Mini LED backlight TV market. As such, TrendForce forecasts a total annual Mini LED backlight TV shipment of three million units for 2021.

While brands expand their production lines for OLED TVs, LG and Sony are expected to seize nearly 80% of OLED market share

At the moment, OLED TVs have been attracting consumer attention in the high-end TV market primarily due to their excellent image quality through high color saturation and contrast. As LG Display installs additional OLED capacity via its Gen 8.5 production line in Guangzhou this year, there will likely be a corresponding increase in OLED TV supply as well as a diversification of OLED TV sizes. Also, annual OLED TV shipment is expected to break records once again this year, as brands are willing to expand their OLED TV product lineups because strategic reductions in OLED panel costs have now significantly narrowed the gap between the cost of OLED panels and that of equivalent LCD panels, thereby giving OLED panels a cost advantage that allows TV brands to reap increased profitability. With regards to TV brands, LG Electronics remains the industry leader in terms of OLED TV shipment this year with a market share of more than 50%, while Sony takes second place with a 20% market share. Other Japanese brands (Panasonic, Sharp, etc.) and Chinese brands (Skyworth, Hisense, Xiaomi, etc.) are likewise expected to experience shipment growths going forward.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

Affected by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, global LED video wall revenue for 2020 reached a mere US$5.53 billion, a 12.8% YoY decrease, with the European and US markets suffering the most significant declines, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In 2021, as overall market demand recovers, and certain components in the upstream supply chain undergo price hikes due to shortage, LED video wall manufacturers have raised their product prices in response. Hence, LED video wall revenue for this year is expected to reach US$6.27 billion, a 13.5% YoY increase.

TrendForce further indicates that the overall demand for LED video walls has been gradually recovering thanks to increased vaccinations worldwide, which have enabled a gradual easing of border restrictions as well as the resumption of major commercial and sporting activities, including UEFA Euro 2020 and the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. In addition, owing to the rising prices of materials in the upstream LED video wall supply chain, such as driver IC, PCB, and LED components, LED video wall manufacturers such as Leyard, Unilumin, and Absen are gradually raising their product prices in order to maintain product profit.

While demand in the Chinese market was the first to recover, the top eight suppliers collectively accounted for a 60% market share

Regarding the ranking of LED video wall suppliers in 2020, Leyard took the leadership position with an 11.3% market share even though its overall revenue declined due to the pandemic’s impact on Leyard’s overseas businesses. Likewise, Unilumin saw declines in its overseas businesses, which caused only a slight drop in its revenue because Unilumin had placed a greater focus on sales in the Chinese market. Unilumin took second place with a market share of 10.8%. Qiangli Jucai, on the other hand, primarily conducted businesses in domestic China. By aggressively strengthening its distribution channels, Qiangli Jucai was able to increase its revenue against the overall downtrend and take third place. Daktronics, Hikvision, Samsung Electronics, Absen, and Shanxi High-tech Huaye rounded out of the rest of the ranking by taking the fourth to eighth places in order.

On the whole, most LED video wall manufacturers, especially companies (including Leyard, Unilumin, and Absen) whose primary markets were Europe and the US, saw declines in their revenues for 2020 due to the pandemic last year. Conversely, companies with a primary focus on the Chinese market, such as Qiangli Jucai and Shanxi High-tech Huaye, benefitted from the recovering demand that began ramping up in 3Q20 and peaked in 4Q20. These companies were able to propel the combined market share of the top eight LED video wall manufacturers last year to 58%, which was four percentage points higher compared to 54% in 2019.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforce.com

In view of aggressive procurement activities for panels used in various applications, TrendForce forecasts a 2% glut ratio for the large-sized TFT-LCD panel market for 2021, representing a supply and demand situation that ranges from “healthy” to “slightly in shortage”. As a lack of components constrained panel shipment in 1H21, the overall panel market during this period had a 1.2% glut ratio, which was lower than the average range of 2.5-3% and represented a supply shortage in the panel market. Hence, panel prices were driven into an uptrend for the first half of the year.

Regarding the glass input of panel suppliers for 1H21, despite the tight upstream supply of glasses due to certain work safety-related accidents, the overall capacity utilization rate of panel suppliers remained above 80%. Furthermore, as newly installed capacities, including CSOT’s T7 fab and HKC’s production lines in Changsha, kick off production, large-sized TFT-LCD glass input by area grew to 117.8 Mn2 (million square meters). On the other hand, owing to the proliferation of the stay-at-home economy last year, most display brands carried a relatively low level of inventory, which prompted them to ramp up their panel procurement. However, owing to a shortage of ICs, panel glass shipment (by area) for 1H21 reached a mere 116.4 Mn2.

TrendForce expects two developments to take place in 2H21: First, the arrival of the traditional peak season for monitors in 3Q21 means that demand for IT panels will still remain above a certain baseline; second, there is an ongoing trend for TVs to shift towards large-sized form factors. In light of these factors, although panel suppliers are expected to install significant amounts of production capacity in 4Q21 and thereby drive the glut ratio of panels to 2.6% for 2H21, this overall glut ratio is still within a healthy range. Nevertheless, as suppliers gradually ramp up their newly installed capacities, the quarterly glut ratio of panels is expected to increase by 0.5% from 2.4% in 3Q21 to 2.9% in 4Q21. Not only is 2.9% the highest quarterly glut ratio in 2021, but it is also the second highest since 1Q20, during which the onset of COVID-19 led to an oversupply of panels at a 7.5% glut ratio. TrendForce therefore believes that peak demand in the panel market has already passed.

Regarding the glass input and shipment by area for 2H21, certain panel suppliers are expected to perform routine fab maintenance during the holiday season. Even so, as Gen 10.5 production lines from certain suppliers and various other production lines from HKC begin ramping up capacities, the overall large-sized TFT-LCD glass input area is expected to massively increase by 5.9% compared to 1H21 to 127.2 Mn2 in 2H21. In particular, 4Q21 will see the highest quarterly glass input by area, at 64 Mn2. As previously mentioned, the shift towards larger-sized TFs and the persistent demand for IT products are expected to propel the overall demand for large-sized TFT-LCD glass in 2H21 to 123.9 Mn2, which is 1.4% higher than 1H21.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

As UMC and GlobalFoundries successively end their respective developments of advanced processes, the advanced process market has now become an oligopoly, with TSMC and Samsung as the only remaining suppliers （excluding SMIC, which is currently affected by geopolitical tensions between China and the US）. According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, TSMC holds a 70% market share in advanced processes below – and including – the 1Xnm node, while Samsung’s market share is about 30%.

As electronic products demand faster data transmission speeds and better performance in response to IoT and 5G applications, the chips contained in these products also need to shrink in size and consume less power. Hence, process technologies need to evolve in order to enable the production of increasingly advanced chips. In this light, suppliers of such chips as smartphone AP, CPU, and GPU primarily rely on Taiwan for its semiconductor industry’s advanced process technologies.

Why is Taiwan able to hold key manufacturing competencies, market shares, and unsurpassed technologies in the global foundry industry?

After TSMC pioneered its pure-play foundry services more than 30 years ago, UMC also subsequently transitioned to a foundry business model. However, the build-out and maintenance of wafer fabs require enormous human resources, capital expenditures, and environmental support, all of which have been skyrocketing since the industry progressed below the 40nm node into the EUV era. Factors including governmental support, human resource development, utility services, and long-term amortization and depreciation are all indispensable for foundries to keep up their fab operations. TrendForce’s findings indicate that Taiwan possesses about 50% of the global foundry capacity, and this figure will likely continue growing due to the persistent demand for advanced processes.

Taiwanese foundries led by TSMC and UMC operate based on a pure-play foundry model, which means they do not compete with their clients outside of foundry operations. Foundries are able to maximize the profitability of the semiconductor ecosystem in Taiwan thanks to Taiwan’s comprehensive PC, ICT, and consumer electronics industries.

In addition, not only are they able to deliver PPA（performance, power, and area） advantages to their clients through technology scaling and node shrinking, they are also unsurpassed in their comprehensive silicon IP cores and longstanding product development services. Other competing foundries are unlikely to make breakthroughs in these fields and catch up to Taiwanese foundries in the short run.

On the whole, the Taiwanese foundry industry is able to maintain its leadership thanks to competencies in human capital, client strategies, process technologies, capital intensify, economies of scale, and superior production capacities.

Furthermore, not only do advancements in semiconductor fabrication technology require developmental efforts from foundries, but they also need support throughout the entire supply chain, including upstream wafer suppliers and downstream client feedbacks, both of which can serve to eliminate yield detractors and raise yield rates. Therefore, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry derives its advantage from foundries（TSMC, UMC, PSMC, and VIS）, as well as from the cross-industrial support across silicon wafer suppliers（SAS and GlobalWafers）, fabless IC design clients, and packaging and testing operators（ASE, etc.）

（Cover image source: TSMC）

Some of the advantages of third-generation semiconductors SiC and GaN include their ability to operate under high voltages, high temperatures （for SiC）, and high frequencies（for GaN）. Not only do these advantages allow manufacturers to significantly reduce the physical sizes of chips, but peripheral circuit designs can also be simplified as a result, thereby further reducing the sizes of modules, peripheral components, and cooling systems. That is why SiC and GaN have become important strategic focuses of the global semiconductor industry.

As part of its ongoing goal of semiconductor independence, China has been accelerating the development of third-generation semiconductors in recent years

From the perspective of substrate development, countries find it difficult to procure SiC substrates due to the lack of production capacities worldwide. Hence, the ability to control the supply of SiC substrates equals having more influence in the semiconductor industry. The current ranking of geographical regions that control the supply of SiC substrates is, in order, the US （Cree and II-VI）, Japan （Rohm）, and Europe （STM）.

It should be pointed out that China’s overall standing in the third-generation semiconductor industry is hindered by its insufficient supply of substrates. Hence, Chinese companies are slightly lagging behind other global companies in this industry. At the moment, both TankeBlue and Shanxi Shuoke have successfully developed 8-inch SiC wafers, though their scale of mass production is yet to catch up to global leader Cree.

Despite the vast majority of GaN substrate suppliers being Japanese and European companies, Chinese companies have been making an aggressive push to enter this market. Regarding substrates, Nanowin, Sino Nitride, and Eta Research are all currently investing in R&D and mass production, though their current focuses are limited to 2-inch and 4-inch wafers. Regarding epitaxy, Enkris, GLC, and Genettice have been similarly making progress on R&D and mass production.

Furthermore, Chinese companies are farther ahead in the development and manufacturing strategies for GaN substrates compared to SiC substrates. For the GaN RF segment, Chinese companies span the entire supply chain, including IDM（CETC, Aofengyuan, Chengchang, Dynax, Innoscience, Bofang Jiaxin）, foundries（HiWafer and San’an）, and fabless IC design companies（GaXtrem）.

（Cover image source: TSMC）