Amid the overwhelming wave of Artificial Intelligence, the importance of advanced process chips is becoming increasingly prominent. Currently, the 3nm process is the most advanced node in the industry. Meanwhile, manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Rapidus are actively promoting the construction of 2nm wafer fabs. TSMC and Samsung previously planned to mass-produce 2nm chips in 2025, while Rapidus to begin trial production in 2025.

2nm Wafer Fabs to Complete Construction as Soon as this Year?

Recently, the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) announced that it is expected that both TSMC and Intel will potentially complete the construction of 2nm wafer fabs by the end of this year.

Intel is anticipated to be the first to achieve commercialization of 2nm chips. The Intel PC CPU Arrow Lake product will utilize the 2nm process node. TSMC’s 2nm process is expected to be applied in Apple’s iPhone AP chips. Subsequently, TSMC’s 2nm capacity will soar up.

According to a report from Commercial Times the installation of equipment for TSMC’s 2nm process is accelerating. TSMC’s Fab20 P1 plant in Hsinchu, Baoshan is scheduled to install equipment in April this year, with pilot production expected to commence in 2H24 and small-scale production in 2Q25.

As for Intel, ASML already delivered the world’s first High Numerical Aperture (NA) EUV EXE:5200 to Intel in late 2023, supporting the latter in producing 2nm chips. Later, Intel kicked-start the calibration of lithography machine, which has been well on track.

Samsung and Rapidus all Set to Move

In terms of Samsung, its previously announced technology roadmap indicates that it will first mass-produce 2nm process chips for mobile terminals starting in 2025, followed by high-performance computing (HPC) products in 2026. It plans to expand to automotive chips by 2027.

Rapidus is setting up a 2nm chip fab in Chitose City, Hokkaido, Japan. Its pilot production line is scheduled to start operation in April 2025, aiming to commence mass production in 2027.

Recently, it’s reported that in order to promote the development of advanced wafer fabs in Japan, several Japanese manufacturers will supply products to Rapidus. Among them, Dai Nippon Printing (DNP) will begin mass production of masks for 2nm chips at its Fukuoka plant and other operations in Japan in 2027, which will be provided to Rapidus.

In addition to DNP, Japanese company TOPPAN Holdings is also collaborating with IBM to develop masks for 2nm chips and achieve mass production by 2026, and Rapidus is reportedly the purchaser. Moreover, companies like Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (TOK), JSR, Shin-Etsu Chemical are also expected to be the suppliers of Rapidus.

1nm Chip Plans Brought to Light

Following 2nm, 1nm chip will be the next target for wafer fabs. In light of manufacturers’ plans, the industry is expected to see mass production of 1nm-level chips from 2027 to 2030.

TSMC plans to reach the A14 node (1.4nm) in 2027 and the A10 node (1nm) in 2030. Recent reports from Economic Daily News indicated that TSMC intends to establish a factory in the Science Park of Taibao City, Chiayi County in central Taiwan to produce 1nm chips.

Samsung anticipates to launch the 1.4nm process by late 2027. It is reported that Samsung’s SF1.4 (1.4 nm) process can increase the number of nanosheets from 3 to 4, which is expected to significantly improve performance and power consumption.

Intel’s latest foundry roadmap shows that the Intel 14A (1.4nm-level) node will put into production in 2026, and Intel 10A (1nm-level) will start development or production in late 2027.

Contract chip manufacturer United Microelectronics Corp has partnered with Intel to develop a 12-nanometer technology platform and will commence production at three Intel facilities in Arizona, USA. According to a report by Nikkei, mass production for chips destined for communication and other applications is slated to begin in 2027

During an interview at the Intel IFS Direct Connect event in February, Jason Wang, Co-President of UMC, stated that both UMC and Intel are pioneering innovative collaboration models. They aim to provide customers with foundry services with competitive pricing through vertical specialization. The two companies will leverage complementary advantages to accelerate the development timeline and expand their global presence.

The foundry market is generally divided into advanced chips and mature chips. Advanced chips, which constitute the brains of smartphones and other devices, are predominantly led by TSMC and Samsung Electronics.

In the realm of mature chips, around 10 companies from Taiwan, China, South Korea, and the United States are competing for the demands of telecommunications equipment, Vehicular communication systems, and other technology manufacturers.

Intel is changing its vertically integrated business model to compete with TSMC and Samsung in contract manufacturing demands.

In March of this year, the US government announced that Intel would receive up to USD 8.5 billion in subsidies for the development of advanced chips. By collaborating with UMC on mature chips, Intel may focus more resources on cutting-edge technologies like 1.4nm.

For UMC, partnering with Intel enables it to mass-produce chips that are more advanced than its mainstream 22nm to 28nm products. Obtaining production facilities in the United States will also help the company win North American clients, as revenue from this region currently accounts for less than 30% of its total.

TSMC is also constructing a semiconductor plant in Arizona, utilizing US assistance to produce advanced 4nm chips. In contrast, the collaboration between UMC and Intel will focus on relatively mature chips.

UMC has long been one of the pillars of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. Established in 1980, seven years before TSMC, the company has been vying for the position of industry leader until the 2000s.

During the 2010s, UMC lagged behind TSMC in advanced chip development, as the latter made significant investments in the semiconductor market following the global financial crisis. Since then, UMC has reportedly put more emphasis on mature chips.

The company is currently at a turning point. Benefiting from the global chip shortage, its performance continued to grow from 2020 to 2022. However, as of December 2023, annual revenue declined by 20% to 222.5 billion New Taiwan dollars ($6.9 billion), marking the first decrease in four years. This is approximately one-tenth of TSMC’s revenue.

UMC’s downturn in 2023 also signifies an intensification in mature process technologies, especially as Chinese semiconductor enterprises’ mature process technologies and equipment remain unaffected by US export restrictions. In an effort to overcome US restrictions, China is heavily investing in mature process.

Per data from TrendForce, China’s share of mature chip production at 28nm and above is expected to increase from the current 31% to 39% by 2027, as production volumes grow.

Joanne Chiao stated that semiconductors for applications such as general sensors and display controllers are expected to face fierce price competition.

On the other hand, UMC continues to face competition from Taiwanese foundries. TSMC plans to produce mature chips at a new plant in Japan by the end of 2024 and at a plant in Germany by the end of 2027. With subsidies from the Japanese and German governments, TSMC will form joint ventures with buyer customers to ensure stable production capacity.

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) announced at the end of February its plans to assist Tata Group in building a chip plant in India. PSMC stated that it would provide intellectual property for the project without investment, aiming to generate licensing revenue.

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(Photo credit: UMC)

It’s reported that TSMC’s new fab in Arizona, USA, is rushing to conduct the trial production of its first production line by mid-April and aims to complete all preparations for mass production by the end of this year. According to a report from the Economic Daily News, if everything goes smoothly, there is a chance that the original schedule for mass production in the first half of 2025 at the new US fab could be advanced to the end of 2024.

Regarding these rumors, TSMC stated on April 1st that the progress of the Arizona fab is proceeding according to plan, and for relevant information, please refer to the company’s official announcements.

TSMC is scheduled to hold an earnings call on April 18th, and ahead of the conference, positive news has emerged regarding the new US fab. It is anticipated that the related topics will also be the focus of attention on the day of the conference.

In the previous earnings call, TSMC announced its plan for the new US fab to commence mass production using the 4-nanometer process in the first half of 2025. Per Economic Daily News‘ report, the company believes that once this fab begins operations, it will be able to provide manufacturing quality and reliability on par with its Taiwan fabs in Arizona.

Industry sources cited by the report suggest that TSMC’s new fab in the United States is racing to complete the setup of its first production line by mid-April and commence trial production. Based on estimations of around 6.5 months from trial production to mass production, with an additional month for verification, there’s a chance that all preparations for mass production could be completed by the end of this year.

Taking stock of TSMC’s presence in the United States, the company currently operates an 8-inch fab in Camas, Washington, and has design centers in Austin, Texas, and San Jose, California. The new fab in Arizona will serve as TSMC’s second production base in the United States.

TSMC’s new fab construction in the United States faced labor shortage issues, which previously led to the announcement of a delay in the production schedule until 2025. However, TSMC has been making efforts to improve the problems encountered in the new fab and is seeking the maximum official subsidy support. Earlier report from Bloomberg indicated that TSMC’s new US fab could potentially secure over USD 5 billion in subsidies from the US government, but the relevant proposal has not been finalized.

TSMC announced the expansion of its investment in the new US fab in December 2022. Construction of the second phase of the Arizona fab has begun, with a total investment of approximately USD 40 billion for both phases. The first phase is expected to produce 4-nanometer chips, while the second phase will produce 3-nanometer chips.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

The semiconductor battleground of the Angstrom Era has commenced earlier than expected, with TSMC advancing its plant expansions in Taiwan. As per Commercial Times citing sources, TSMC is poised to increase its 2024 capital expenditure from the initial estimate of USD 28-32 billion to USD 30-34 billion, marking a hike of over 7%.

TSMC’s continuous plant expansion includes the initiation of the first 2-nanometer plant in Hsinchu’s Baoshan facility in April, the addition of another 2-nanometer plant in Kaohsiung, and the commencement of construction for two advanced packaging plants in Chiayi. Furthermore, there are market rumors speculating that TSMC plans to build two more A14 plants in Kaohsiung.

According to industry sources cited by the report, TSMC’s earnings call on April 18th will mark a significant milestone as the company transitions to the next generation of manufacturing processes. Expectations are high for surprises in capital expenditure, second-quarter operating prospects, and the nomination list for new directors.

During TSMC’s January earnings call, they disclosed a capital expenditure estimate of approximately USD 28-32 billion for this year. However, with NVIDIA’s recent unveiling of the Blackwell architecture, advanced packaging has become almost indispensable for next-generation chips. Major customers for advanced packaging, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, Marvell, and AMD, are all closely linked to AI.

Per the same report citing sources, it’s revealed by Commercial Times citing sources near TSMC’s clients that the current waiting time remains as long as six months, as capacity ramp-up continues to chase demand. It is widely expected that TSMC will increase its capital expenditure, with the lower bound potentially surpassing USD 28 billion to over USD 30 billion.

From an operational standpoint, TSMC is expected to benefit this year from the surge in demand for artificial intelligence. Analysts predict that AI clients will support TSMC’s second-quarter revenue momentum, with the potential to deliver low single-digit quarterly growth.

Per the report citing sources, the positive outlook for TSMC’s second quarter can be attributed to several factors. These include stable demand for TSMC’s 4nm and 5nm processes with support from NVIDIA’s GPUs. Additionally, it is speculated that the 3nm process will benefit from cryptocurrency clients and early orders for Apple’s AI chips, boosting capacity utilization. Furthermore, there is an upward trend in the mature 16nm and 28nm processes.

Per the industry sources cited by the report, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is fully booked until the first half of next year. This will drive up the revenue contribution from TSMC’s 3nm process. Furthermore, the outsourcing orders for Intel CPUs this year will further boost revenue growth.

Additionally, on June 4th, TSMC will hold elections for ten directors, including six independent directors. The list of director candidates is about to be announced, attracting significant attention to the new team lineup. With the current Chairman, Mark Liu, announcing his succession, and independent director K.C. Chen planning to retire, significant changes in the TSMC board of directors’ composition are anticipated.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to wccftech, Intel’s new GPUs will come in two models, namely Battlemage-G10 (abbreviated as BMG-G10) and Battlemage-G21 (abbreviated as BMG-G21).

These two new GPUs from Intel were revealed in an internal document. According to the document, the BMG-G10, targeted at enthusiasts, is a GPU with a TDP of less than 225W, while the BMG-G21 is designed as a mid-range performance product with a maximum TDP not exceeding 150W.

As for specific parameters and performance, the enthusiast-grade BMG-G10 is expected to be equipped with up to 64 Xe2 cores, directly competing with NVIDIA’s RTX 4070. On the other hand, the mid-range BMG-G21 aims at the RTX 4060, both continuing to utilize TSMC’s 4nm manufacturing process.

Therefore, previous rumors suggesting that Intel had canceled the development of BMG-G10 and only retained the BMG-G21 with 40 Xe2 cores appear to be untrue. Moreover, the core count of BMG-G10 is larger than initially reported at 56 Xe2 cores, indicating it is poised to deliver even higher performance.

Recently, per a report from Reuters, Intel, Qualcomm, Google, and other major tech companies are teaming up to challenge NVIDIA’s market dominance and make inroads into the AI software sector. They are expected to look to steer developers away from NVIDIA’s CUDA software platform, a parallel computing platform tailored for GPU acceleration.

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(Photo credit: Intel)