With the semiconductor market facing uncertainties and limited signs of industry recovery in the first half of 2024, foundries in China, Taiwan, and South Korea are all implementing price reductions to secure orders and solidify customer relationships.

According to TechNews citing from supply chain sources, Samsung Foundry, which had not taken action previously, is expected to follow suit with price cuts in the first quarter to keep pace with competitors.

Reportedly, industry sources suggest that Samsung Foundry is adopting a price reduction strategy in the first quarter of 2024, offering discounts ranging from 5% to 15% and expressing a willingness to negotiate.

Samsung Foundry’s actions can be interpreted as a goodwill gesture towards its customers. The company has been in constant competition with TSMC, especially in processes below 5nm, and actively engaging in negotiations with customers, seeking collaboration opportunities with Qualcomm, NVIDIA, AMD and others.

Considering the subdued semiconductor market in 2023, fabs in both China and South Korea have implemented price cuts to secure orders. The price reductions for mature processes in 8-inch and 12-inch wafer reached 20-30%, while Taiwanese fabs have also made concessions in pricing.

TSMC, the leading foundry, had already been reported to offer price concessions in 2023, with the major focus on mask costs rather than foundry services. It was mentioned at that time that TSMC’s price concessions primarily applied to the 7nm process, where utilization rates were lower, and the extent of concessions depended on the volume of orders from customers.

In terms of the global foundry landscape, according to data published by TrendForce, Taiwan holds approximately 46% of global foundry capacity, followed by China (26%), South Korea (12%), the US (6%), and Japan (2%).

However, due to government incentives and subsidies promoting local production in countries like China and the US, the semiconductor production capacities of Taiwan and South Korea are projected to decrease to 41% and 10%, respectively, by 2027.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

With its 3nm manufacturing process in mass production for approximately a year, TSMC is expected to have a breakthrough in customer acquisition and capacity utilization in 2024.

According to predictions from a South Korean outlet The Elec, aside from Apple, customers such as NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to place orders for the second generation of the 3nm process within the year. This is anticipated to significantly boost TSMC’s 3nm process capacity utilization to 80% by the end of the year.

Chinese tech media ICsmart further quoted from the report, stating that although TSMC announced the mass production of its 3nm process in December 2022, the first-generation 3nm process (N3B) had only one customer throughout 2023, which was Apple. Companies like MediaTek and Qualcomm opted for the 4nm process due to cost considerations.

However, the report suggests that in 2024, more companies, in addition to Apple, are expected to place orders for the more cost-effective second generation of the 3nm process (N3E). This is anticipated to boost TSMC’s overall production capacity for the 3nm process.

Several chip companies are expected to adopt the N3E process for their new products. The report suggests that TSMC’s customers for this process may include Qualcomm, which is gearing up to launch the new Snapdragon 8 Gen 4, MediaTek with its next-generation Dimensity 9400, Apple with its M3 Ultra chip and A18 Pro processor, AMD with the Zen 5 CPU and RDNA 4 GPU, and NVIDIA with the Blackwell architecture GPU. Notably, the Apple M3 Ultra chip might make its debut in the upgraded Mac Studio around mid-year.

The report notes that TSMC initially anticipated steady growth for the 3nm process in early 2023 as yields improved, but with only Apple as a customer, the “steady growth” of the 3nm process negatively impacted TSMC’s performance.

The report suggests that with TSMC’s new orders from customers beyond Apple for the 3nm process, a considerable rebound is expected. Monthly production is projected to reach 100,000 wafers by 2024, and the 3nm production capacity utilization rate is poised to soar to 80% by the end of 2024.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

In 2024, TSMC’s global expansion continues at full throttle, with industry reports suggesting a significant breakthrough in the establishment of a 3-nanometer advanced process manufacturing facility in Japan. Osaka is considered the most likely location for TSMC’s third plant in Japan.

TSMC has stated that it is actively evaluating suitable sites for construction and is not ruling out any possibilities.

According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, following the announcement of Chairman Mark Liu’s retirement, speculation arises that President CC Wei will shoulder the responsibility of overseas expansion. With domestic 1.4 and 2-nanometer plans settled, and 3-nanometer production achieving high yields, developments in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and elsewhere are progressing rapidly.

Furthermore, sources in the supply chain reveal that TSMC has design centers in Osaka and Yokohama, making Osaka the front-runner for TSMC’s third plant in Japan.

Market speculations suggest that Japan will be a focal point for TSMC’s overseas expansion, with advanced processes and packaging potentially making significant strides in the country. Supply chain insiders point out that TSMC’s two R&D centers in Japan specializing in advanced process research and supporting design services for Japanese IDM customers. The advantageous conditions in Osaka are seen as superior to those in Yokohama.

TSMC’s subsidiary, Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM), is constructing a factory in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, set to open on February 24 and expected to commence mass production by the end of 2024.

The second factory in Kumamoto is also planned to start operations in April. As for TSMC’s Taiwan facilities in advanced processes, the estimation is for 2-nanometer production to begin in Baoshan and Kaohsiung, gradually reaching mass production by 2026.

(Image: TSMC)

TSMC operates at full capacity, AMD aims for AI chips reportedly seeks CoWoS-like supply chain.

In 2023, NVIDIA led the global AI chip development, and in 2024, the global demand for AI chips is expected to continue to surge due to the expansion of end-user applications such as PCs and mobile phones.

Meanwhile, AMD has not stopped in AI chip development either, with the expected MI300 products poised to heat up the global AI business opportunities. However, the key to supply lies in advanced packaging, and AMD will seek outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) service providers to offer support similar to CoWoS.

According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity has long been fully loaded, and even if it expands production this year, it will mainly be reserved for NVIDIA. Market sources pointed out that TSMC will continue to increase CoWoS capacity to support AMD’s demand, but it takes six to nine months to establish a new production line. Therefore, it is expected that AMD will seek cooperation with other companies with CoWoS-like packaging capabilities. ASE, Amkor, Powertech, and KYEC are the first batch of potential partners.

TSMC has been outsourcing part of its CoWoS operations for some time, mainly targeting small-volume, high-performance chips. TSMC maintains in-house production of the CoW, while the back-end WoS is handed over to test and assembly houses to improve production efficiency and flexibility. This model will continue in the future 3D IC generation.

ASE and Amkor both received WoS orders last year. ASE has strengthened the development of advanced packaging technology and has a complete solution for the entire CoWoS process. ASE previously stated that it sees the strong potential of AI and expects related revenue to double in 2024.

According to reports citing market sources, the monthly production capacity of the ASE Group’s 2.5D packaging is about 2,000 to 2,500 pieces. Some experts believe that test and assembly houses will maintain the business model of TSMC or UMC providing the interposer. Therefore, in 2024, a significant increase in CoWoS production capacity is expected.

KYEC is responsible for testing Nvidia AI chips and is expected to benefit from AMD’s search for CoWoS-like capacity. Nvidia is currently KYEC’s second-largest customer.

KYEC’s testing of Nvidia A100 and H100 chips is mainly in the final test (FT), with a market share of up to 70%. KYEC provides comprehensive IC burn-in testing, has self-developed burn-in equipment, and has been in the industry for more than a decade, accumulating many patents and technologies.

AMD stated at the end of 2023 that AI chip revenue could reach US$2 billion in 2024, excluding other HPC chips. AMD pointed out that the annual compound growth rate of the AI chip market in the next four years will reach 70%, and it is estimated that it will reach US$400 billion in 2027.

(Image: AMD)

TSMC is expected to return to a growth trajectory this year, benefiting from the global semiconductor industry’s recovery, the completion of terminal inventory destocking, and the continuous explosion of AI applications.

According to the report from Economic Daily News, entering 2024, the industry generally holds optimistic views on TSMC’s potential to shake off the operational downturn and restart growth.

TSMC consistently refrains from commenting on analysts’ financial forecasts. When addressing first-quarter outlook issues earlier, the company indicated that it usually provides comments on the business outlook for 2024 during the January earnings conference.

However, TSMC President C.C. Wei mentioned at a supply chain management forum in December of last year that due to external factors such as high inflation and ongoing cost increases, there is still uncertainty for 2024. Nevertheless, with the rapid development of AI applications, 2024 is expected to be a year full of opportunities.

Additionally, during the earnings conference in October of last year, TSMC had forecasted that demand for 3nm technology is better than three months ago, contributing to the company’s healthy growth in 2024.

Industry sources point out that TSMC is expected to benefit this year from the diversified growth in end applications of major customers such as Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD. The global increase in the production value of GPUs is considered the primary driving force.

Simultaneously, the diverse development of customized AI accelerators and Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) also contributes to the company’s operations. TSMC’s full-year USD revenue is expected to surpass the USD 80 billion mark for the first time, with a yearly growth rate of approximately 14% to 16%.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)