As ASML accidentally released its financial report nearly a day ahead of its schedule due to a “technical error,” the Dutch semiconductor giant’s Q3 performance and its forecast for 2025 have also startled all by reporting orders at half of what the market predicted, raising concerns on the lackluster outlook of semiconductors despite strong demand for AI-related chips, according to the reports by Bloomberg and Reuters.

The result is regarded as a warning signal, as it might imply the weak performance for ASML’s major clients, such as tech heavyweights Intel and Samsung, the reports note. TSMC, another of ASML’s client, will release its Q3 earnings results tomorrow.

ASML shares plummeted 16%, marking their largest drop since June, 1998, the reports by Reuters and Bloomberg state.

Lackluster Q3 Bookings and 2025 Outlook as Customers Remain Cautious

ASML, known for producing the world’s most advanced chipmaking equipment such as High-NA EUV machines, posted a net profit of 2.1 billion euros on revenue of 7.5 billion euros (USD 8.2 billion) in Q3. However, it reported third-quarter bookings of €2.6 billion (USD 2.8 billion), falling short of the average estimate of €5.39 billion from analysts surveyed, according to Bloomberg.

According to its press release, ASML revised its 2025 total net sales forecast to a range of €30 billion to €35 billion, down from its previous estimate of up to €40 billion.

For next year, the company anticipates a gross margin between 51% and 53%, lower than the prior projection of 54% to 56%, mainly due to delays in the rollout of its high-end extreme ultraviolet machines.

According to a statement by ASML Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet cited by the reports, the recovery of the semiconductor industry is progressing more slowly than anticipated, and this cautious outlook is expected to persist into 2025, leading to more conservative behavior from customers.

Key Clients in Trouble while Chip War Remains an Issue

It is worth noting that according to Reuters, ASML indicates that despite strong demand for AI-related chips, other segments of the semiconductor market are facing prolonged weakness. This has caused logic chip manufacturers to postpone orders, while memory chip companies are only planning “limited” expansions in new capacity.

According to a report from South Korean media outlet Business Korea, Samsung is said to mull to reduce its procurement of ASML’s next-generation EUV lithography equipment. Reportedly, Samsung initially planned to purchase more than three units of the next versions, EXE:5200, EXE:5400, and EXE:5600, over the next ten years. However, the company has now decided to introduce only the EXE:5200.

On the other hand, another struggling semiconductor giant, Intel, has secured five units of High-NA EUV machines from ASML to ensure its progress with the 2nm node, according to a previous report by TheElec. However, as the company has been doing its best to reduce expenses through restructuring and delaying overseas expansion, whether it will stick to the original purchase plan remains to be seen.

The report by Bloomberg also warns that while China was ASML’s largest market, the demand from China may slow in the coming periods, as Washington’s ongoing chip war with Beijing remains a persistent long-term concern for ASML.

Read more

• [News] Intel Completes Assembly of Second High-NA EUV System, ASML Confirms
• [News] Samsung Reportedly Reduces Procurement of ASML’s Next-Generation EUV Lithography Equipment

(Photo credit: ASML)

At TSMC’s upcoming earnings call on Thursday (October 17th), capital expenditure has become one of the key points of interest for the market. According to a report from Economic Daily News, institutional investors believe that TSMC’s capital expenditure range this year will remain unchanged. While next year’s capital expenditure plan will be announced at the next earnings call in January, it is suggested that capital expenditures for 2025 will increase compared to this year.

TSMC is currently in the quiet period before earnings call. According to the report from Economic Daily News, institutional investors point out that TSMC’s focus on 2nm-related mass production plan could significantly boost subsequent capital expenditures.

It is estimated that in 2025, TSMC’s capital expenditure will reach USD 32 billion to USD 36 billion, making it the second highest in history, with an annual growth rate of approximately 20%. TSMC’s increase in capital expenditure will significantly benefit ASML, Applied Materials, and related suppliers in Taiwan, the report noted.

In the earnings call in July, TSMC mentions that, to meet the customer demand, this year’s expected capital expenditure range will be narrowed. The original forecast in April was between USD 28 billion and USD 32 billion, which was adjusted to a range of USD 30 billion to USD 32 billion in July.

As for TSMC’s capital expenditures in the past, the historical high occurred in 2022, when it reached a record of USD 36.29 billion. In contrast, TSMC’s actual capital expenditure for 2023 is USD 30.45 billion, falling below the lower bound of the expected USD 32 billion set by the company during the October 2023 earnings call. This shortfall has sparked discussions in the market at that time.

Previously, sources indicated that TSMC has invested heavily in research and development related to advanced 2nm processes. The demand for 2nm technology is stronger than anticipated, and there are indications that production capacity planning will also include expansions in the Southern Taiwan Science Park, as suggested by the report from Economic Daily News.

According to the report, TSMC’s 2nm capacity expansion is expected to encompass four phases in Hsinchu Science Park and Baoshan, along with Phase 2 in Kaohsiung. If the plans for the Southern Taiwan Science Park come to fruition, TSMC’s 2nm technology could achieve a total of at least eight phases and eight fabs of production capacity.

Read more

• [News] Preview for TSMC’s Key 3nm Clients ahead of Earnings Call: Order Surge Expected in 2025
• [News] TSMC’s Newly Acquired AP8 Facility in Southern Taiwan Rumored to Start Production in 2H25
• [News] TSMC Took Another Step in Advanced Process Expansion

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Ahead of TSMC’s upcoming third-quarter earnings call this Thursday, a report by the Commercial Times gives a heads-up on the foundry giant’s outlook of 3nm orders next year. With NVIDIA and AMD ramping up their next-gen AI accelerators, combined with the strong demand from smartphone chips, orders for TSMC’s 3nm node are set to see a surge in 2025, the report indicates.

According to analysts cited by the report, most flagship smartphone chips are expected to be manufactured with 3nm next year. For instance, Apple’s A19 Pro is said to adopt TSMC’s N3P process, while the Android phones are likely to follow suit.

In terms of the demand from AI accelerators, the report notes that AMD’s MI350 series will likely be manufactured with the 3nm node, which is going to benefit TSMC.

It is worth noting that according to another report by Commercial Times, at Advancing AI 2024 last week, AMD CEO Lisa Su highlighted the company’s close partnership with TSMC, saying that she would be glad to see the CHIPS Act bringing more manufacturing lines back to the U.S.

Sources cited by Commercial Times suggest that for now, AMD has no plans to collaborate with chip makers other than TSMC, and that the company is currently conducting a qualification assessment for chip production at TSMC’s Arizona fab (Fab 21).

On the other hand, Commercial Times indicates that NVIDIA’s orders on TSMC will likely see an increase next year, which would further tighten the foundry giant’s capacity in 3nm and 5nm. NVIDIA’s R-series GPUs are reportedly to be manufactured with TSMC’s 3nm as well, the report notes, but it would not be released until 2026.

TSMC is expected to see strong 3nm demands from other tech giants in 2025 as well. According to the report, Intel is said to outsource most of its Lunar Lake chips to TSMC, while the AI PC chip MediaTek co-develops with NVIDIA is also rumored to be built using the 3nm process. The report states that this chip is expected to debut in the second quarter of next year and enter mass production in the third quarter.

Sources cited by the report note that as clients turn to place orders on 3nm for their latest AI accelerators, foundry capacity will further be strained. Notably, TSMC’s CoWoS packaging reportedly allows interposers reaching 3.3 times for its maximum reticle size to manufacture chips such as NVIDIA’s B200, AMD’s MI300, or Intel’s Gaudi 3, with the number of chips produced on per interposer becoming fewer.

Read more

• [News] Intel Shifts to TSMC for Chip Production: A Looming Threat for AMD?
• [News] NVIDIA and MediaTek Reportedly Team up on 3nm AI PC Processors, with Tape-outs Expected This Month

(Photo credit: TSMC)

As AMD unveiled the roadmap for its upcoming AI accelerators at Advancing AI 2024, including MI325X and MI355X, its longtime foundry partner TSMC is expected to be the major beneficiary, according to the reports by the Commercial Times and the Economic Daily News.

TSMC, as AMD’s key chip making partner, is expected to benefit the most, as the foundry giant also provides advanced packaging services such chiplets and CoWoS, Commercial Times notes.

Other Taiwanese companies in the supply chain are also expected to benefit, including ASMedia, which provides PCIe Gen5 high-speed interface chips, as well as ASIC firms GUC and Alchip, according to the report. Among server OEM partners, Compal, Wistron, Wiwynn, and Inventec are listed as AMD’s collaborators.

According to the Economic Daily News, AMD’s Instinct MI325X AI accelerator is said to be manufactured with TSMC’s 4nm and 5nm, with mass production anticipated to begin this quarter. It is worth noting that the AI GPU would be the first of its kind to be equipped with 256GB HBM3e memory, according to another report by Wccftech.

On the other hand, to compete with AI chip giant NVIDIA’s GB200, AMD also introduced the MI350 series at the event. According to Commercial Times, MI355X will be launched in the second half of 2025, leveraging TSMC’s 3nm process while equipped with 288GB HBM3e memory.

The report by Commercial Times further notes that in addition to its larger memory capacity, the MI355X accelerator also incorporates the CDNA 4 architecture, allowing it to achieve a significant 35x increase in FP8 computational performance.

Featuring TSMC’s 3nm node just like NVIDIA’s Rubin reportedly does, AMD’s MI355X has the potential to catch up with, or even run ahead of its archrival in terms of product schedule, the report suggests. NVIDIA’s Rubin is reportedly to be released in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Notably, AMD’s MI300X accelerator has been reportedly adopted by a few tech heavyweights. According to Commercial Times, following Microsoft’s adoption, Samsung has also purchased USD 20 million worth of AMD MI300X units for AI training.

At Advancing AI 2024, which took place on October 10^th, AMD also introduced its latest EPYC server processors, EPYC 9005 Series, previously codenamed Turin. According to its press release, the EPYC 9005 Series is built on the latest “Zen 5” architecture, which offers up to 192 cores and will be available in a wide range of platforms from leading OEMs and ODMs. According to the Economic Daily News, EPYC 9005 Series is manufactured with TSMC’s 3nm and 4nm nodes.

Read more

• [News] AMD Unifies RDNA and CDNA into UDNA Architecture, Aiming to Compete with NVIDIA’s CUDA
• [News] AMD MI325X Reported to Debut in October, Claiming AI Supercycle Has Just Started

(Photo credit: AMD)

Intel’s first processor using rival TSMC’s technology, the Lunar Lake, has officially launched, intensifying the competition with AMD. According to a recent report by TechNews, third-party testing has confirmed Intel’s claims: Lunar Lake is indeed the most energy-efficient x86 processor to date, outperforming Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X and even rivaling Apple’s M3, reminiscent of Apple’s groundbreaking M1 launch.

TechNews attributes this success not only to Intel’s redesign of power supply, frequency regulation, and packaging but also to the advanced TSMC N3B process.

Recently, Intel announced that in order to reduce costs and better prepare for its in-house 18A process, it has decided to abandon the introduction of the 20A process. As a result, the Arrow Lake chip launching this month will also use TSMC’s process. TechNews raised the question in their article: “With Intel’s new platforms expected to rely on TSMC’s process at least until 2026, will AMD face significant challenges?”

Can AMD’s Zen 5 architecture turn the tide?

TechNews noted that AMD’s current advantage over Intel rests heavily on using TSMC’s process. However, AMD is not alone in benefiting from TSMC’s power efficiency. Across the board, chips produced with TSMC technology have demonstrated superior energy efficiency, delivering high performance without consuming excessive power. But, with the efficiency gains from advanced nodes like M4 or A18 nearing their limits, chipmakers will need to adopt more aggressive power and frequency strategies to push performance further.

Lunar Lake’s impressive energy efficiency highlights both TSMC’s process advantage and Intel’s enduring design prowess. This should serve as a warning for AMD, which plans a major push into the laptop market in 2025. With the launch of Strix Point and Hawk Point this year, AMD aims to release five new platforms next year, targeting the mid-to-high-end laptop market. However, reviews of Strix Point already show that, while performance has improved, energy efficiency remains stagnant—a problem that could persist with future Zen 5-based products.

This opens a window of opportunity for Arrow Lake, which is now powered by TSMC’s process. If Arrow Lake can offer higher peak performance than Raptor Lake Refresh or Meteor Lake while maintaining strong energy efficiency—and with better OEM partnerships—AMD’s hard-earned foothold in the mid-to-high-end market may once again be overshadowed by Intel.

Facing competition shifts due to process changes is nothing new for AMD. As mentioned in the TechNews report, when NVIDIA launched the RTX 30 series on Samsung’s 8LPU (8nm) process, early issues with leakage and high power consumption gave AMD’s RX 6000 series GPUs, known for their superior performance and energy efficiency, a competitive edge. The high-end 6800 and 6900 models were even able to compete with NVIDIA’s RTX 3080. However, once NVIDIA returned to TSMC for the RTX 40 series, AMD struggled to keep up and eventually abandoned its high-end GPU plans, shifting focus to niche markets.

TechNews concludes that while next year may see the lowest degree of processor process diversity—since almost everyone is using TSMC—it will also be a critical year to evaluate the true design strengths of each semiconductor company. With AMD’s Zen 5 already on the table, all eyes are now on Intel’s Arrow Lake to see what surprises it brings to the market with TSMC’s technology.

(Photo credit: AMD)