TSMC is in the process of constructing a semiconductor factory in Kikuyo-cho, Kumamoto Prefecture, Kyushu, Japan (referred to as Plant 1). Production is expected to commence in December 2024. Besides this facility, TSMC has shown interest in establishing a second plant in Japan (referred to as Plant 2). According to Japanese reports, the government is considering providing TSMC with a substantial subsidy of up to 900 billion Japanese Yen for Plant 2.

On October 4, during the Public-Private Partnership Forum on Increasing Domestic Investment led by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, plans were announced for economic measures to be finalized within October. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan (METI) will request a budget of 3.4 trillion Japanese Yen to establish three funds supporting semiconductor production and research and development. These funds are the ” Research and Development Project of the Enhanced Infrastructures for Post-5G Information and Communication Systems,” the “Specified Semiconductor Funding Program,” and the “Ensuring Stable Supply Support Fund.”

As reported by Asahi Shimbun, sources suggest that the METI deems it necessary to grant 900 billion Japanese Yen in subsidies for TSMC’s proposed Plant 2, nearly 600 billion Japanese Yen for the “Rapidus” national team aiming to produce next-gen semiconductor chips domestically, and 700 billion Japanese Yen for traditional chips like Sony CMOS image sensors.

The Japanese government will allocate the required funds for these economic measures in the 2023 fiscal year supplementary budget. If the METI’s budget request is approved, the budget for semiconductor-elated activities in the 2023 fiscal year supplementary budget (3.4 trillion Japanese Yen) will be 2.6 times higher than that in the 2022 fiscal year supplementary budget (1.3 trillion Japanese Yen).

The Kishida administration also announced plans to ease land restrictions for crucial manufacturing facilities such as semiconductor plants during the forum. As early as December, local governments will be able to issue development permits for agricultural land, forests, and other areas.

Before that, local governments could only grant permits for industries related to food logistics, data centers, and plant facilities. Now, this is being expanded to include vital strategic materials. Furthermore, changing the land category from agricultural land often required approvals from multiple government departments, a process that could take more than a year. In the future, these procedures are expected to be shortened to around four months.

(Image: Briáxis F. Mendes (孟必思), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

As AI demand continues to surge, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has initiated an extensive expansion plan for its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) production. Within the industry, reports suggest that TSMC, a leading semiconductor foundry, placed a significant wave of orders with Taiwanese equipment manufacturers last week, creating a notable impact.

Additionally, outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (OSAT) giants, which were originally inquiring about orders, have also significantly increased their orders for advanced packaging. This wave of orders is estimated to be fulfilled between March and April of the upcoming year.

The growth in demand for advanced semiconductor processes due to AI applications necessitates advanced packaging technologies to keep pace. With packaging technologies advancing from 2D and 2.5D to the more advanced 3D IC (Integrated Circuit) configurations, the number of IC stacking layers is increasing, leading to a greater demand for advanced packaging equipment. Considering the current emphasis on CoWoS technology, the industry estimates that production capacity will reach 12,000 to 14,000 wafers in 2023 and double to over 30,000 wafers in 2024.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, information from equipment industry sources reveals that TSMC recommenced orders for CoWoS equipment in April 2023, with a second wave of orders in June. Subsequently, sporadic additional orders were placed, and last week witnessed a new significant wave of orders, surprising many.

An anonymous executive from a Taiwanese equipment company expressed that they initially believed TSMC’s orders for CoWoS equipment had concluded, making the recent wave of orders even more unexpected. Furthermore, the increase in orders for advanced packaging equipment by semiconductor testing and packaging facilities is also seen as encouraging.

Market experts believe that semiconductor testing and packaging facilities and semiconductor foundries have different positions and advantages in the advanced packaging market. Their cooperative relationships outweigh their competition. Major OSAT players like ASE, Amkor, and JCET have long possessed advanced packaging technology and are positioned to become an alternative choice for major foundries due to their technical upgrades and competitive pricing. In other words, top-tier orders from customers will be firmly in TSMC’s grasp, while other opportunities will likely be pursued by SATS companies.

Regarding the supply of CoWoS equipment, suppliers like Scientech have received over 30 orders for wet etching processing equipment, while Grand Process Technology and others have shipped nearly 20 units. Meanwhile, G2C+ Alliance members such as GMM and C Sun have reportedly received over 40 orders from the TSMC’s Longtan factory.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

In the industry buzz, it’s reported that TSMC expects a significant upswing in the proportion of AI orders within its 2024 revenue, driven by the increased demand for wafer starts from its six key AI customer groups in the coming year.

These six major AI customer groups encompass NVIDIA, AMD, Tesla, Apple, Intel, and international giants with in-house AI chip development, entrusting TSMC for production. The orders in this domain continue to heat up, not only benefiting TSMC but also signaling a robust year ahead for AI server manufacturer like Quanta and Wistron.

TSMC traditionally refrains from commenting on specific customer details and remained silent on market speculations on the October 10th. Meanwhile, AI server manufacturers, including Quanta and Wistron, hold a positive outlook for the upcoming year, with expectations of a continued upward trend in AI-related business operations.

As the demand for AI wafer starts from key customers intensifies, market experts are keenly watching TSMC’s investor conference on the October 19th. There is anticipation regarding whether TSMC will revise its previous July forecast by further increasing the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of AI-related product revenue for the next five years.

TSMC categorizes server AI processors as those handling training and inference functions, including CPUs, GPUs, and AI accelerators. This category accounts for approximately 6% of TSMC’s total revenue. During TSMC’s July investor conference, it was projected that the demand for AI-related products would see a nearly 50% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) increase over the next five years, pushing its revenue share into the low teens range.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

The Silicon Photonics topic is heating up as major companies race to address the data transfer speed between chips. Intel’s Silicon Photonics project has a leading advantage, while TSMC is collaborating with major customers Nvidia and Broadcom, investing 200 research and development personnel. They aim to complete the project in the second half of 2024, with production set to begin in 2025.

According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, Luo Huaijia, the Executive Director of the Photonics Industry and Technology Development Association (PIDA) in Taiwan, stated that silicon photonics technology has always been a crucial focus in the field of photonics. Photonics products are evolving towards being compact, lightweight, energy-efficient, and power-saving.

Among Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs, TSMC stands out with its COUPE, which provides heterogeneous integration of photonic integrated circuits (PIC) and electronic integrated circuits (EIC), reducing energy consumption by 40%. TSMC is rumored to deploy a 200-person R&D team, collaborating with international major clients for joint development. Consequently, following the completion of its Hsinchu plant, TSMC invested NT$90 billion in constructing a new packaging plant in Tongluo, Miaoli, recognizing the significant demand and potential in heterogeneous integration.

Luo Huaijia pointed out that silicon photonics uses semiconductor technology to create a platform with optical properties, with the goal of integrating light and telecommunications signals. This involves packaging traditional optical components, including optical waveguides, light-emitting elements, and transceiver modules, together, thus also involving heterogeneous packaging.

As early as 2002, Intel publicly conducted research in the field of “Silicon Photonics,” but at that time, the data volume could be handled with copper wire transmission. Luo Huaijia believes that with the exponential increase in AI computing power, data processing will start in the gigabyte range, prompting companies to invest heavily in development.

Luo Huaijia analyzed that currently, GlobalFoundries is likely the first company to provide wafer foundry services for manufacturing optical fiber transceivers, using FD-SOI technology integration solutions. Intel also currently offers a 400Gb/s optical fiber transceiver solution. In addition to their own ASICs or FPGAs, this technology is applied to Switch ICs. Intel even plans to expand its silicon photonics solution into the automotive market, using it in Mobileye’s optical radar by 2025.

Explore More

• What Is ‘Silicon Photonics’? Why Intel, TSMC, NVIDIA, Apple Are Investing
• Silicon Photonics Will Become Key to Semiconductor Future Development

(Photo credit: ITRI)

TrendForce research indicates that in 1H23, the utilization rate of 8-inch production capacity primarily benefited from sporadic inventory restocking orders for Driver ICs in the second quarter. Additionally, wafer foundries initiated pricing strategies to encourage clients into early orders, offering solid backup. However, in 2H23, persistent macroeconomic and inventory challenges led to the evaporation of an anticipated demand surge.

Meanwhile, stockpiles in automotive and industrial control segments grew after meeting initial shortages, tempering demand. Under fierce price competition from PMIC leader Texas Instruments (TI), inventory reductions for Fabless and other IDMs were drastically inhibited. With IDMs ushering in output from their new plants and pulling back outsourced orders, this compounded reductions to wafer foundries. This dynamic saw 8-inch production capacity utilization dipping to 50–60% in the second half of the year. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2/3 8-inch wafer foundries saw a more lackluster capacity utilization performance compared to the first half of the year.

Heading into 2024, with the prevailing economic turbulence, the overall semiconductor foundry capacity utilization rate will face challenges in recovery. The 8-inch capacity utilization for 1Q24 is poised to mirror—or potentially dip below—4Q23 figures, revealing a glaring lack of recovery indicators.

However, starting from 2Q24, TrendForce posits that while clarity on end sales remains murky due to overarching economic risks, inventory levels are expected to wane, returning to a healthier equilibrium. The ensuing periodic restocking and the added momentum from orders shifted to Taiwanese foundries (owing to decoupling from China), should keep the 8-inch utilization rate from diving further. The average annual utilization rate for 8-inch wafers in 2024 is pegged around 60–70%. A swift return to yesteryear’s peak capacity seems difficult for now.

Taiwanese and Korean semiconductor foundries face the brunt of order curtailments

A closer look reveals Chinese foundries, such as SMIC and HuaHong Group (primarily HHGrace for 8-inch), exhibiting marginally superior 8-inch utilization rates than their Taiwanese and Korean peers. The proactive pricing approaches of Chinese foundries and China’s push for domestic IC substitution and production are key drivers. However, despite price reduction across foundries in 2H23, a predominantly conservative market outlook from clients, combined with the absence of urgent orders, meant these reductions rendered limited assistance to the 8-inch wafer utilization rate in the latter half of the year.

Panning to 2024, SMIC and HHGrace are forecast to outpace their Taiwanese and Korean counterparts in an 8-inch utilization rate resurgence. HHGrance could even see a stellar rebound, reaching 80–90%. On the Taiwanese front, TSMC grapples with PMIC order pullbacks, predicting an expected drop in 8-inch utilization to below 60% from 4Q23 to 1Q24. UMC and PSMC, in the same span, are gearing up to maintain levels above 50%.

Furthermore, even traditionally resilient Japanese and European IDMs commenced their inventory recalibration in 3Q23, potentially further stalling the recovery timeline for the 8-inch capacity utilization rate. TrendForce insights suggest that, with mounting inventory pressures, Infineon is curtailing orders to external foundries such as UMC and Vanguard. This strategy will likely suppress Vanguard’s 8-inch utilization rate into 1Q24, casting a gloomier shadow than earlier projections.

Korean heavyweight, Samsung, has prioritized its 8-inch production for large-sized Driver ICs, CIS, and smartphone PMICs. However, the persistent softness in consumer demand has prompted their clientele toward a more guarded-order strategy. Furthermore, Chinese CIS patrons, aligning with local manufacturing inclinations, are transitioning toward native foundries. Consequently, Samsung’s 8-inch utilization rate has languished in 2H23, with expectations set at approximately 50% throughout 2024.