The semiconductor foundry, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), held an online briefing on October 25th to unveil its 3Q 2023 operational report. UMC achieved consolidated revenue of NT$57.07 billion, marking a 1.4% growth compared to the previous quarter’s NT$56.3 billion in 3Q23. However, it’s essential to note that this quarter’s revenue decreased by 24.3% in comparison to 3Q 2022.

In 3Q, a 35.9% gross margin yielded a net profit of NT$15.97 billion and an EPS of NT$1.29. The first three quarters of 2023 saw revenue at NT$167.575 billion, marking a 20.5% decline from 2022. The gross margin for this period remained at 35.8%, resulting in a net profit of NT$47.795 billion and an EPS of NT$3.87.

UMC’s Co-president, Jason Wang, highlighted that the company’s performance in the 3Q was boosted by the growing demand in the computer and communication sectors. This was further enhanced by ongoing improvements in product offerings and favorable exchange rates. Notably, despite a 2.3% decrease in overall wafer shipments, the revenue and gross margin remained robust compared to the previous quarter.

Delving into the terminal product market, products like LCD controllers, Wi-Fi, encoders and decoders, and touch IC controllers stimulated demand in the computer application sector. Additionally, the demand for RF front-end ICs and network chips contributed to the shipment volume in the communication sector.

Looking ahead to the 4Q, Wang said that the computer and communication sectors are gradually recovering in terms of short-term demand. In contrast, the automotive market remains challenging, and customers are adopting a cautious approach in managing inventory levels.

UMC foresees that the expansion of capacity at Fab 12A P6 in Nanjing in 2024 will provide significant support, further boosting revenue contributions for 22/28-nanometer technologies.

UMC’s estimate for the 4Q indicates that wafer shipments are projected to decline by 5%, with the average selling price remaining stable. Capacity utilization is expected to decrease from 67% in the previous quarter to a range of 61-63%, which will consequently impact the gross margin. It is estimated to decrease from 35.9% in the 3Q to a range of 31-33%.

Regarding capital expenditure, Q3 saw approximately $570 million spent, a 30.49% decrease from the previous quarter and a 25.39% decrease from 3Q 2022. Cumulative capital expenditure for the first three quarters reached around $2.4 billion, showing a 52.69% increase compared to 2022. The total 2023 capital expenditure remains at $3 billion, with 90% allocated to 12-inch capacity and 10% to 8-inch capacity.

(Image: UMC)

Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) has unveiled plans to establish a state-of-the-art 12-inch semiconductor plant in Singapore, reigniting discussions about expanding to Singapore within the semiconductor industry. As per Economic Daily News, while Taiwan and South Korea continue to lead in semiconductor manufacturing in Asia, an increasing number of semiconductor companies have strategically chosen Singapore as their Southeast Asian hub in recent years.

This strategic positioning enables them to reach markets in Vietnam, Thailand, India, and beyond, which is particularly valuable in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions. Singapore’s strategic geographical advantage highlights its remarkable flexibility as a stronghold, uniquely positioned to adapt to meet various demands.

Nonetheless, Singapore grapples with certain challenges, including higher production costs and an aging workforce. Statistics reveal that semiconductors contributed approximately 7% to Singapore’s domestic gross production last year. S&P Global Analytics also notes that the contribution of Singapore’s semiconductor industry to the Asian region is relatively modest. Moreover, the nation faces a significant long-term challenge, one that many economies share: an aging population. Singapore ranks among the fastest-aging populations worldwide.

Turning the attention to key players in Singapore’s semiconductor landscape, companies like TSMC, UMC, ASE, and Micron have established a strong presence. Notably, TSMC collaborated with NXP (formerly Philips Semiconductor) and the Singapore Economic Development Board Investment Corporation (EDBI) back in 2000 to establish SSMC, an 8-inch fab located in the Wafer Fab Park in Singapore.

In a parallel endeavor, UMC invested in Singapore in 2003 and is currently in the midst of an ambitious expansion, including their Fab12i P3 fab, situated in the Pasir Ris Wafer Fab Park in Singapore. The physical infrastructure is expected to be completed by mid-2024, with mass production of 22nm and 28nm chips set to commence in early 2025.

(Image: Wafer Fab Parks)

As reported by Taiwanese media, there’s a gradual uptick in TSMC’s capacity utilization lately, accompanied by a noticeable surge in orders from TSMC’s clients. Some segments of the market are showing signs of rekindled demand, hinting at a possible upswing in the semiconductor industry. Nevertheless, certain semiconductor manufacturing firms remain cautious in their industry outlook.

TSMC’s Capacity Utilization Rate on the Rise

Media’s report indicates that TSMC’s capacity utilization rate has gradually recovered. The 7/6nm utilization, which had dropped to 40% at one point, is now around 60% and could potentially reach 70% by the end of the year. Similarly, the 5/4nm utilization is at 75-80%, and the 3nm capacity, which increases seasonally, is approximately 80%.

Concurrently, TSMC is experiencing a significant uptick in orders from their clients, including tech giants like Apple, MediaTek, NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell, and STMicroelectronics. Furthermore, AI chip clients such as AMD’s subsidiary Xilinx, Amazon, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla have all accepted TSMC’s plan for a price increase in 2024.

Taking Tesla as an example, they are building a supercomputer facility in Austin to accelerate the development of their autonomous driving system, expanding the computing power of Dojo. The core D1 of Dojo is produced using TSMC’s 7nm process and advanced packaging technology. Based on this, Tesla is deepening its collaboration with TSMC, and it’s expected that their order volume will increase from around 5,000 pieces this year to 10,000 pieces next year.

Amid the ongoing AI surge, NVIDIA is actively seeking additional production capacity. On October 19th, NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, revealed in an interview that the global demand for AI chips remains robust. He has met with TSMC’s CEO, C.C. Wei, to discuss providing more capacity to serve customers. NVIDIA is in the planning stages for the next generation of chips designed for AI-based infrastructure and has also engaged in discussions with partners such as Quanta and ASUS to strategize collaboration.

Is the Semiconductor Industry on the Rebound?

During TSMC’s Q3 earnings call, C.C. Wei pointed out that, in addition to strong AI demand, there’s a rebound in demand for smartphones and personal computers. As for automotive electronics, benefiting from the continued growth of electric vehicles, the demand for next year is expected to be quite robust. Regarding when the semiconductor industry might hit bottom, Wei remarked that there are some early signs appearing in the PC and mobile phone sectors. However, it remains challenging to predict a strong resurgence as customers are still cautiously managing their inventories.

In response to industry concerns about smartphone growth, TSMC’s CFO, Wendell Huang, noted that smartphone growth is anticipated to remain lower than the company’s future growth rate. High-Performance Computing (HPC) is expected to be the most robust growth segment, making substantial contributions to growth in the coming years.

On the other hand, other semiconductor foundry companies, such as PSMC, have also shared their perspectives on the fourth quarter and future industry developments. Recently, PSMC’s President, Brian Shieh, pointed out that the supply chain’s inventory seems to have reached a reasonable level, with growing demand for mobile panel driver ICs, surveillance system CIS chips, and visibility extending beyond one quarter. Prices for special memory products have started to show an upward trend. Demand for Power Management ICs (PMIC) also displays signs of recovery, even though the trend isn’t as pronounced as that of driver ICs and CIS chips.

Regarding UMC, the company is scheduled to hold an earning call on 25th October. In their previous earnings call for the last quarter, UMC mentioned that due to ongoing adjustments in the supply chain’s inventory, the outlook for wafer demand remains uncertain. Although the industry glimpsed a modest recovery in the second quarter, the overall sentiment in the end-market remains subdued, and customers continue to maintain stringent inventory management practices.

TrendForce reports that from 2023 to 2027, the global ratio of mature (>28nm) to advanced (<16nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China’s mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan’s share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.

Expansion predominantly targets specialty processes such as Driver ICs, CIS/ISPs, and Power Discretes, with second and third-tier Taiwanese manufacturers at the forefront

Within the Driver IC sector, the spotlight is on high voltage (HV) specialty processes. As companies aggressively pursue the 40/28nm HV process, UMC currently dominates, trailed by GlobalFoundries. Yet, SMIC’s 28HV and Nexchip’s 40HV are gearing up for mass production in 4Q23 and 1H24, respectively—narrowing their technological gap with other foundries. Notably, competitors with similar process capabilities and capacities, such as PSMC, and those without twelve-inch factories like Vanguard and DBHitek, are poised to face challenges head-on in the short term. This trend may also have long-term implications for UMC and GlobalFoundries.

In the realm of CIS/ISP, 3D CIS structure comprises a logic layer ISP and CIS pixel layer. The primary demarcation for mainstream processes is around 45/40nm range for the logic layer ISP, which continues to progress toward more advanced nodes. Meanwhile, the CIS pixel layer, along with FSI/BSI CIS, predominantly uses 65/55nm and above processes. Currently, TSMC, UMC, and Samsung are the frontrunners in this technology. Yet, Chinese players like SMIC and Nexchip are hot on their heels, swiftly closing the gap. Their ascent is further fueled by Chinese smartphone titans OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi. Additionally, domestic shifts prompted by governmental policies are positioning Chinese CIS companies like OmniVision, Galaxycore, and SmartSens to rally behind local production.

Power Discretes mainly encompass products like MOSFETs and IGBTs. Vanguard and HHGrace have been deeply involved in Power Discrete processes for some time, boasting a more comprehensive process platform and vehicle certification than many competitors. However, a wave of Chinese contenders, backed by national policies favoring EVs and solar initiatives, are ready to stake their claim, intensifying global competition in this sector. This includes mainstream foundries like HHGrace, SMIC, Nexchip, and CanSemi. Additionally, smaller Chinese IDMs and foundries, such as GTA and CRMicro, are also entering the competitive landscape. If China massively ramps up its production capacity, it will intensify global competition in Power Discrete manufacturing. The impact will not only spark price wars among local Chinese businesses but could also erode the order books and clientele of Taiwanese companies.

In a nutshell, while China actively courts both global and domestic IC designers to bolster its local manufacturing presence, the ensuing massive expansion could flood the global market with mature processes, potentially igniting a price war. TrendForce notes that as China’s mature process capacities continue to emerge, the localization trends for Driver IC, CIS/ISP, and Power Discretes will become more pronounced. Second and third-tier foundries with similar process platforms and capacities might face risks of client attrition and pricing pressures. Taiwan’s industry leaders, renowned for their specialty processes—UMC, PSMC, Vanguard to name a few—will find themselves in the eye of the storm. The battle ahead will hinge on technological prowess and efficient production yields.

According to UDN News, Taiwan’s semiconductor foundry, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC), is planning to establish a 12-inch wafer plant in Japan, with Mie Prefecture emerging as a probable location. This facility will be part of a burgeoning semiconductor hub that links up with the thriving industrial city of Nagoya and UMC’s Japanese plant, pending the approval of Japanese government subsidies. PSMC would be the second Taiwanese semiconductor giant to set up shop in Japan after this move, expanding its global presence.

PSMC has yet to officially comment on its investment in Japan or the specific site for the plant. Market observers note that PSMC’s Chairman, Frank Huang, has a track record of close collaboration with Japanese firms. From early partnerships with Elpida in producing DRAM to later contract manufacturing of ICs for Renesas, PSMC’s order books are expected to be promising in Japan.

In July of this year, PSMC announced a partnership with the Japanese financial group SBI Holdings to establish a 12-inch wafer foundry within Japan and seek official Japanese subsidies.

PSMC envisions that the Japanese foundry will utilize 22/28-nanometer manufacturing processes and incorporate advanced Wafer on Wafer stacking technology to meet the demands of the AI market. Recent reports suggest that the Japanese government has granted substantial subsidies, around 140 billion yen, for the PSMC-SBI collaboration in Japan, although PSMC refrains from commenting on this matter.

Recent reports indicate that the location of PSMC’s new facility in collaboration with SBI is likely to be in Mie Prefecture. This choice is supported by two key factors. Firstly, it’s in close proximity to the bustling industrial hub of Nagoya, offering logistical advantages for both raw materials and wafer exports. Additionally, UMC acquired Fujitsu’s 12-inch wafer plant in Kuwana City, Mie Prefecture, showcasing regional wafer expertise. This choice benefits from the industrial cluster, streamlining recruitment and material logistics for construction and production.

It is understood that PSMC’s collaboration with SBI to establish a plant in Japan will follow a similar joint-venture mode like Nexchip Semiconductor Corporation in China several years ago. PSMC will provide its expertise in constructing the plants and managing the production lines. Once everything is up and running smoothly, they will gradually reduce their involvement and may adopt a shareholding model for the Japanese wafer plant.

(Image: PSMC)