According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, JPMorgan’s latest analysis reveals that AI demand will remain robust in the second half of the year. Encouragingly, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expansion progress is set to exceed expectations, with production capacity projected to reach 28,000 to 30,000 wafers per month by the end of next year.

The trajectory of CoWoS capacity expansion is anticipated to accelerate notably in the latter half of 2024. This trend isn’t limited to TSMC alone; other players outside the TSMC are also actively expanding their CoWoS-like production capabilities to meet the soaring demands of AI applications.

Gokul Hariharan, Head of Research for JPMorgan Taiwan, highlighted that industry surveys indicate strong and unabated AI demand in the latter half of the year. Shortages amounting to 20% to 30% are observed with CoWoS capacity being a key bottleneck and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) also facing supply shortages.

JPMorgan’s estimates indicate that Nvidia will account for 60% of the overall CoWoS demand in 2023. TSMC is expected to produce around 1.8 to 1.9 million sets of H100 chips, followed by significant demand from Broadcom, AWS’ Inferentia chips, and Xilinx. Looking ahead to 2024, TSMC’s continuous capacity expansion is projected to supply Nvidia with approximately 4.1 to 4.2 million sets of H100 chips.

Apart from TSMC’s proactive expansion of CoWoS capacity, Hariharan predicts that other assembly and test facilities are also accelerating their expansion of CoWoS-like capacities.

For instance, UMC is preparing to have a monthly capacity of 5,000 to 6,000 wafers for the interposer layer by the latter half of 2024. Amkor is expected to provide a certain capacity for chip-on-wafer stacking technology, and ASE Group will offer chip-on-substrate bonding capacity. However, these additional capacities might face challenges in ramping up production for the latest products like H100, potentially focusing more on older-generation products like A100 and A800.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to the news from Money UDN, amid a tough semiconductor market, once-stable long-term contracts for silicon wafer makers have turned uncertain. A major Taiwanese foundry seeks price cuts in upcoming contracts from a Japanese supplier. Intense negotiations are ongoing, potentially affecting industry dynamics and pricing strategies due to the Japanese suppliers’ pivotal role in the supply chain.

Market insiders suggest silicon wafer makers may resist price reductions due to their vital role in foundries. Reports hint at foundries’ challenges and the ripple effects on critical materials suppliers.

Globally, Japan’s Shin-Etsu and SUMCO are top silicon wafer suppliers, trailed by Taiwan’s GlobalWafers, Germany’s Siltronic, and South Korea’s SK Siltron. And Taiwan SUMCO joint venture with Formosa Plastics Group as “Formosa Sumco Technology”, and other companies like Wafer Works. With over 30% market share, Shin-Etsu leads, closely followed by SUMCO, combining for around 55% to 60% global share.

Taiwan’s foundries include TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC, among others. TSMC, with a global market share exceeding 50%, holds a leading position in the industry.

Silicon wafers are essential raw materials for semiconductor foundries, integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), and memory manufacturers. Presently, the standard duration for silicon wafer long-term contracts ranges from three to 8 years, specifying annual supply and demand quantities. In the previous semiconductor boom, these long-term contracts often featured escalating prices year by year.

Semiconductor market shifts led to reduced foundry capacity use, heightening tensions with silicon wafer makers’ clients. Delays emerged in the last quarter, leading to agreements between manufacturers and clients. This trend has persisted into the first half of this year. Silicon wafer industry insiders acknowledge slow end-market demand recovery and relatively high client inventories.

Amidst this situation of overflowing inventories, reports indicate that a major Taiwanese silicon wafer foundry is requesting Japanese silicon wafer suppliers to not only agree to further delays in this year’s contracted shipments but also to lower prices for next year. However, no formal agreement has been reached by the silicon wafer manufacturers at this stage.

A juridical person suggests that the negotiations are currently at a deadlock, and the situation might become clearer in the fourth quarter. If the silicon wafer manufacturers eventually concede, they are unlikely to publicly admit it, in order to prevent other clients from seeking similar adjustments and causing wider disruptions.

Market insiders also reveal that the Japanese silicon wafer manufacturers facing price reduction demands are currently operating relatively well and are adopting a firm stance. From the perspective of the foundries, they are hoping for support from their supply chain partners to alleviate the pressure. Normal silicon wafer inventories typically span two to three months, yet certain silicon wafer foundries are already grappling with high inventory levels, particularly for 8-inch wafers, which might persist throughout this year.

(Source: https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/7366962)

Leading semiconductor companies are making significant strides in global expansion with the announcement of two new fabrication facilities. TSMC is set to greenlight a factory in Germany, while GlobalFoundries plans to establish its first 12-inch wafer plant in Singapore.

TSMC’s Bold Move: Germany’s Green Light

TSMC from its presence in the USA, China (Shanghai and Nanjing), to Japan (Kumamoto City), TSMC’s global manufacturing footprint is expanding. Reuters reported on August 7 that TSMC’s board is inclined to approve the construction of a plant in Dresden, Germany. The German government pledges a substantial 5 billion euros (about $5.49 billion USD) to support the facility. However, the German Ministry of Economy refrains from commenting on the matter.

TSMC has been negotiating with the Saxony German state since 2021 to establish a collaborative FAB plant. In partnership with Bosch, Infineon, and Onsemi, TSMC aims to utilize the Dresden plant primarily for automotive chip production. Pending board approval, this venture could involve financing discussions with Berlin, ultimately requiring European Commission endorsement. TSMC, Intel, and Wolfspeed stand out among chip manufacturers seeking government assistance for European manufacturing ventures.

GlobalFoundries Poised to Build 12-Inch Wafer Plant in Singapore

According to udn.com, GlobalFoundries is set to make a substantial investment in the establishment of a 12-inch wafer fabrication plant in Singapore. The project’s funding could exceed NT$100 billion (approximately $3.2 billion USD). Reports suggest that this Singaporean facility will focus on producing 28-nanometer chips, with a potential completion date as early as 2026.

Industry experts note that GlobalFoundries’ move to set up a 12-inch facility in Singapore implies a significant shift in the competitive landscape. TSMC, UMC, PSMC, and GlobalFoundries – the four major semiconductor foundries – will all possess 12-inch production capabilities. Additionally, each of these companies has international expansion plans for such facilities. Notably, TSMC’s ventures span across the USA and Japan, UMC, and GlobalFoundries are both targeting Singapore, while PSMC’s strategy involves establishing a plant in Japan in collaboration with local partners.

Major Manufacturers Expand Against the Current Downturn

TSMC has been proactive in its expansion strategy, unveiling plans for ten new facilities in the past two years. These include 5 wafer plants and 2 advanced packaging facilities in Taiwan, alongside 3 overseas wafer plants. Despite the industry’s current challenges, TSMC’s expansion momentum remains strong, driven by a heightened focus on global manufacturing diversity.

TSMC is well aware of the potential risks tied to significant expansion efforts. In its latest annual report, the company acknowledges that expanding on a global scale demands substantial resources, highlighting possible challenges like rising costs, workforce shortages, disasters, land scarcity, cyber threats, government support, cultural differences, intellectual property protection, and tax variations.

Expanding during a semiconductor downturn has become a strategic approach for the foundry players. Typically, a fab construction takes 2 to 4 years, with equipment installation lasting 0.5 to 1 year and production ramp-up stretching 1 to 2 years. Looking ahead, semiconductor foundries are gearing up for a fresh wave of capacity release throughout 2024 and 2025.

Despite the industry’s ongoing slump, encouraging signs suggest that the downturn might be reaching its conclusion. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic, anticipating the arrival of the next upswing in the cycle.

(Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Xu_uc58kG85E_6R4Y3qhQ)

AI Chips and High-Performance Computing (HPC) have been continuously shaking up the entire supply chain, with CoWoS packaging technology being the latest area to experience the tremors.

In the previous piece, “HBM and 2.5D Packaging: the Essential Backbone Behind AI Server,” we discovered that the leading AI chip players, Nvidia and AMD, have been dedicated users of TSMC’s CoWoS technology. Much of the groundbreaking tech used in their flagship product series – such as Nvidia’s A100 and H100, and AMD’s Instinct MI250X and MI300 – have their roots in TSMC’s CoWoS tech.

However, with AI’s exponential growth, chip demand from not just Nvidia and AMD has skyrocketed, but other giants like Google and Amazon are also catching up in the AI field, bringing an onslaught of chip demand. The surge of orders is already testing the limits of TSMC’s CoWoS capacity. While TSMC is planning to increase its production in the latter half of 2023, there’s a snag – the lead time of the packaging equipment is proving to be a bottleneck, severely curtailing the pace of this necessary capacity expansion.

Nvidia Shakes the foundation of the CoWoS Supply Chain

In these times of booming demand, maintaining a stable supply is viewed as the primary goal for chipmakers, including Nvidia. While TSMC is struggling to keep up with customer needs, other chipmakers are starting to tweak their outsourcing strategies, moving towards a more diversified supply chain model. This shift is now opening opportunities for other foundries and OSATs.

Interestingly, in this reshuffling of the supply chain, UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) is reportedly becoming one of Nvidia’s key partners in the interposer sector for the first time, with plans for capacity expansion on the horizon.

From a technical viewpoint, interposer has always been the cornerstone of TSMC’s CoWoS process and technology progression. As the interposer area enlarges, it allows for more memory stack particles and core components to be integrated. This is crucial for increasingly complex multi-chip designs, underscoring Nvidia’s intention to support UMC as a backup resource to safeguard supply continuity.

Meanwhile, as Nvidia secures production capacity, it is observed that the two leading OSAT companies, Amkor and SPIL (as part of ASE), are establishing themselves in the Chip-on-Wafer (CoW) and Wafer-on-Substrate (WoS) processes.

The ASE Group is no stranger to the 2.5D packaging arena. It unveiled its proprietary 2.5D packaging tech as early as 2017, a technology capable of integrating core computational elements and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) onto the silicon interposer. This approach was once utilized in AMD’s MI200 series server GPU. Also under the ASE Group umbrella, SPIL boasts unique Fan-Out Embedded Bridge (FO-EB) technology. Bypassing silicon interposers, the platform leverages silicon bridges and redistribution layers (RDL) for integration, which provides ASE another competitive edge.

Could Samsung’s Turnkey Service Break New Ground?

In the shifting landscape of the supply chain, the Samsung Device Solutions division’s turnkey service, spanning from foundry operations to Advanced Package (AVP), stands out as an emerging player that can’t be ignored.

After its 2018 split, Samsung Foundry started taking orders beyond System LSI for business stability. In 2023, the AVP department, initially serving Samsung’s memory and foundry businesses, has also expanded its reach to external clients.

Our research indicates that Samsung’s AVP division is making aggressive strides into the AI field. Currently in active talks with key customers in the U.S. and China, Samsung is positioning its foundry-to-packaging turnkey solutions and standalone advanced packaging processes as viable, mature options.

In terms of technology roadmap, Samsung has invested significantly in 2.5D packaging R&D. Mirroring TSMC, the company launched two 2.5D packaging technologies in 2021: the I-Cube4, capable of integrating four HBM stacks and one core component onto a silicon interposer, and the H-Cube, designed to extend packaging area by integrating HDI PCB beneath the ABF substrate, primarily for designs incorporating six or more HBM stack particles.

Besides, recognizing Japan’s dominance in packaging materials and technologies, Samsung recently launched a R&D center there to swiftly upscale its AVP business.

Given all these circumstances, it seems to be only a matter of time before Samsung carves out its own significant share in the AI chip market. Despite TSMC’s industry dominance and pivotal role in AI chip advancements, the rising demand for advanced packaging is set to undeniably reshape supply chain dynamics and the future of the semiconductor industry.

(Source: Nvidia)

On December 6, TSMC held a ceremony for the first tool-in of its new Arizona fab. This event came after the foundry giant had publicized a series of overseas expansion projects. Within Taiwan, TSMC’s recent announcements have caused a stir in public opinion. Concerns have been raised about the possibility of a hollowing out of the island’s semiconductor industry due to a mass exodus of professionals involved in chip manufacturing.

TSMC’s Overseas Expansion Plan

TSMC actually embarked on the path to internationalize its business operations much earlier in 2015, when it made the announcement to build a fab in Nanjing, Mainland China. At that time, the chief reason behind this expansion project was that Huawei had become the second most important client next to Apple. Also, TSMC planned to have its 16nm node serve as the main manufacturing technology of the Nanjing fab. This decision was in line with the semiconductor technology export rules enforced by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Specifically, domestic chipmakers are only allowed to deploy “n-1” technologies at overseas manufacturing sites. Despite being in compliance with all domestic laws and regulations, TSMC still attracted a lot of controversies with establishing a base of operation in Mainland China, and there were speculations that more advanced semiconductor technologies will be leaving Taiwan with the “westward expansion”.

Fast-forward to present day, China is not the only one that is focusing on the development of a homegrown semiconductor industry. After witnessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global supply chain, many other countries are reconsidering the importance of semiconductor supply in their own industries. From the US to Japan and European countries, governments have begun to offer various subsidies and market-based incentives in order to entice major semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC to build fabs in their territories.

A detailed survey of TSMC’s overseas expansion activities from 2015 onwards finds that the construction of the Nanjing fab commenced in 2016 a year after the announcement of the project. The fab then celebrated the formal start of mass production with a ceremony in 2018. Two years later, in 2020, TSMC revealed the plan to build a 12-inch wafer fab that deploys advanced nodes in Arizona. Moving into 2021, the foundry giant unveiled two more expansion projects in Japan. The plan to open a “3D IC material R&D center” in Tsukuba (Ibaraki Prefecture) was announced first. Later in October of that same year, TSMC said it will set up a fab in Kumamoto.

Where Will TSMC Go After US?

Regarding the locations of TSMC’s fabs worldwide, TrendForce’s latest research reveals that for 12-inch wafer foundry, TSMC has four fabs in Taiwan, including including two upcoming greenfield projects respectively located in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung. Outside Taiwan, TSMC has one operational 12-inch wafer fabs in Mainland China and two more under construction in the US and Japan. Besides these existing and planned fabs, a close eye is also being kept on TSMC’s possible expansion into the EU states. Germany has long been rumored to be TSMC’s candidate for setting up a fab in Europe. However, Ireland has a lot of potential as well since Intel previously announced its intention to expand its existing manufacturing operation in this country. Currently, TSMC is internally assessing the feasibility of landing a project in Ireland.

Taiwan Still Has Advantages in Talents, Business Culture, and Complete Industry Ecosystem

Going back to the issue of whether TSMC’s overseas expansion activities will negatively affect Taiwan’s semiconductor industry by causing an outward migration of related professionals or a weakening of the industry’s competitive advantage. According to TrendForce analyst Joanne Chiao, the deglobalization trend is gradually emerging in the supply-demand dynamics of the semiconductor market. Based on the latest data, the geographical distribution of TSMC’s production capacity (that is calculated in thousands of 12-inch wafer equivalents per month) for 2022 is estimated as follows: 93% in Taiwan, about 6% in Mainland China, and 1% in the US. The short-term effects of TSMC’s overseas projects will thus be very limited as the majority share of the foundry’s production capacity is going to stay in Taiwan.

As for the effects on the competitiveness of the domestic semiconductor industry in the long run, Chiao believes that deglobalization will lead to a general rise in operating costs for foundries worldwide. This means that every foundry will be facing increasing pressure related to pricing regardless of where they put their fabs. On the other hand, Taiwan’s importance as the world’s main chip production base will diminish somewhat over time because of the deglobalization trend.

Nevertheless, the foundry industry depends on tight relations with clients as well as highly synchronized and meticulous services among all participants across the supply chain. This is where Taiwan shines because the island is home to a complete ecosystem for the foundry industry. All participants in this ecosystem advance together when it comes to upgrading technological capabilities or overcoming technological bottlenecks. Apart from these advantages, a system of management has been well established on the island for the various aspects of fab operation. As foundries keep their fabs running 24/7, they are constantly tested in manpower scheduling. Therefore, they have to rely on locally cultivated talents and local experience that have taken decades to amass. In other words, fabs in Taiwan are performing at the highest level because of the local business and work culture.

（Image credit: TSMC Linkedin）