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[News] Key Focus This Week: U.S. GDP & Employment Situation
Last week, U.S. stock market sectors experienced volatility, resulting in a slight 0.03% decline in the S&P 500 Index, ending its six-week winning streak. In the bond market, better-than-expected U.S. economic data led to increases in the yields of 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds by 15.7 basis points to 4.107% and 4.276%, respectively, with the yield spread remaining at around 14 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index also rose to around 104 due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate-cut pace.
Key Economic Data Review for Last Week
China LPR: The People’s Bank of China announced cuts of 25 basis points to both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR), bringing them to 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. At the Financial Street Forum on October 18, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank is likely to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate by 0.2% before the end of the year, depending on market liquidity. There is also room for further LPR reductions in the future.
Canada Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada announced a 50 basis point rate cut, bringing its benchmark rate to 3.75%. Governor Tiff Macklem said that inflationary pressures in Canada have broadly dissipated and that the central bank hopes to see stronger economic growth moving forward. He also indicated that further rate cuts could be on the horizon if the economy develops as expected, to maintain inflation targets and economic growth.
Key Economic Data Review for This Week
U.S. Q3 GDP (10/30): U.S. retail sales over the past three months have consistently outperformed market expectations, indicating resilient consumer spending. In its October report, the IMF also raised its forecast for U.S. 2024 GDP growth to 2.8% (previously 2.6%) due to strong consumer and investment spending. According to estimates from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Q3 U.S. GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.31%.
Japan Monetary Policy (10/31): In early October, newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan’s current economic environment is not suitable for a rate hike. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda echoed this sentiment, citing market instability and concerns over a potential U.S. recession as key reasons for the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to rate hikes. As a result, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%.
U.S. October Employment Data (11/1): The U.S. services sector has continued to support domestic consumption and employment, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls to a stronger-than-expected increase of 254,000. However, recent hurricanes and the Boeing strike may put downward pressure on the October jobs data. The market currently expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls likely to fall to 111,000 due to these short-term factors.
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[News] China’s Youth Unemployment Eases in September, but Economic Challenges Persist
China’s youth unemployment rate decreased in September, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on October 22. The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds, excluding students, stood at 17.6%, down from 18.8% in the previous month, but it remains at a relatively high level.
It is worth noting that after the youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group reached a historic high in June 2023, Chinese authorities temporarily halted the release of this data and revised the statistical method to exclude students. However, this adjustment has raised concerns in the market regarding the credibility of the data.
Before the release of this unemployment figure, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, slightly higher than market expectations but marking the lowest growth rate in the past six months.
Amid a prolonged period of economic weakness, the Chinese government finally introduced a significant and detailed monetary easing policy in September, followed by policies in October aimed at boosting economic growth and stabilizing the real estate market. The market is now closely watching to see if these policies will effectively revive the Chinese economy.
Insights
[News] Key Focus This Week: Monitoring for Signs of Deterioration in the U.S. Labor Market
Last week, the People’s Bank of China introduced significant easing measures targeting interest rates, the real estate market, and the stock market, leading to a nearly 16% rebound in the CSI 300 Index from its low. Meanwhile, although the S&P 500 had already priced in the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut, it continued to hit record highs, buoyed by ongoing gains in tech stocks. In the bond market, the yield spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries remained steady at around 20 basis points. The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, consolidating around 100.
Key Economic Data Review for Last Week:
U.S. PCE: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August increased by 2.2% year-over-year (previously 2.5%) and 0.1% month-over-month (previously 0.2%). The decline in PCE growth was mainly due to falling goods prices, which saw a year-over-year decrease of -0.9% (previously -0.2%), while services prices remained steady with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%. Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose by 2.7% year-over-year, a slight increase from the previous month’s 2.6%.
China Industrial Enterprises Total Profits: China Industrial Enterprises Total Profits fell by 17.8% year-over-year in August, a sharper decline from July’s 4.1% drop, marking the largest decrease this year. High-tech manufacturing profits, the largest contributor, declined in August, with cumulative year-over-year growth for January to August standing at 10.9% (previously 12.8%). Additionally, profits in mining and consumer goods manufacturing continued to fall due to weak demand, further exacerbating the downward pressure on overall industrial profits.
Australia Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged in its September meeting. The meeting statement indicated that restrictive financial conditions are slowing the economy. While household consumption is expected to rebound in the second half, if the recovery pace falls short of expectations, economic output may remain weak, leading to further slack in the labor market. The RBA also noted that recent data has heightened inflationary risks, and inflation is now expected to return to the target range by the end of 2025 (previously mid-2025).
Key Data to Watch This Week:
China PMI (September 30): China’s August Manufacturing PMI was 49.1 (previously 49.5), marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction. Nearly all sub-indices declined in August, remaining in contraction territory. Given the still-weak domestic demand and the incomplete impact of monetary policies, the market expects the September PMI to hold steady around 49.5.
U.S. ISM PMI (October 1): The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August was 47.2 (previously 47.4). New orders and production indices fell to 44.6 (previously 47.4) and 44.8 (previously 45.9), continuing to reflect the restrictive financial conditions and uncertainties surrounding the presidential election, which have dampened corporate investment. The market expects manufacturing to exhibit uneven recovery, with the September PMI to remain around 47.6.
U.S. ISM NMI (October 3): The Non-Manufacturing PMI (NMI) for August was 51.5 (previously 51.4). Despite declines in business activity and employment indices, all indices remained in expansionary territory, indicating overall healthy growth in the services sector. With the U.S. holiday season approaching, the market expects the September NMI to hold steady around 51.5, continuing a trend of moderate growth.
U.S. Employment Situation (October 4): The U.S. unemployment rate for August was 4.2% (previously 4.3%), remaining near historic lows, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 142,000, within the safe range of 100,000 to 200,000. Additionally, recent initial jobless claims have stopped rising, indicating a slowdown in labor market weakening. Moving forward, it will be important to monitor whether the job market can maintain its current state without deteriorating following the Fed’s rate cuts. The market currently expects the September unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by around 140,000.
Insights
[News] The U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises Again to 4.3% in July, Heightening Recession Fears in the Market
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July employment report on August 2, indicating that the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. Although the unemployment rate remains near historical lows and close to the natural rate of unemployment, it has been rising for four consecutive months.
At the same time, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 114,000, significantly below the 12-month average of 215,000. The year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings also declined from 3.8% to 3.6%, continuing its downward trend. Additionally, the number of initial jobless claims continues to rise.
During the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve noted that it would more carefully balance the risks between the labor market and inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also explicitly stated that he did not want to see further cooling in the labor market.
In light of the series of data showing a slowdown in the labor market, the market has started to anticipate more aggressive rate cuts at the September FOMC meeting. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut has surged from 11.5% a week ago to 77.5%.
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