News
Despite the U.S. export control measures on semiconductor equipment, including those from the Netherlands-based ASML, a major player in advanced manufacturing tools, recent financial reports have contrastingly indicate a doubling of the revenue share from the Chinese market?
On January 24, ASML, a leading provider of photolithography equipment, released its latest financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2023. In Q4 2023, the revenue reached EUR 5.683 billion, with China accounting for 39% of ASML’s total revenue.
Although slightly lower than the 46% in Q3, the annual perspective for 2023 reveals that China contributed to 29% of ASML’s revenue for the year. This marks a significant increase compared to the 14% revenue share from China in 2022, indicating a direct doubling of ASML’s revenue share in the Chinese market.
ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, explained the significant increase in the revenue share from the Chinese market within a year during the interview accompanying the recent financial report.
Dassen attributed the strong performance in China in 2023 to orders received at the end of 2022, which were executed throughout 2023. In the previous quarter, ASML had highlighted that the global order delivery rates, including the Chinese market, had been relatively low, below 50% over the past few years.
He then emphasized that the demand from Chinese orders primarily comes from mid-critical and mature manufacturing, and this demand remains solid.
With the Netherlands imposing new restrictions on the export of advanced chip manufacturing equipment effective from January, ASML officially announced that starting from 2024, they would not be able to ship NXT:2000i and higher DUV lithography equipment to China.
Equipment below NXT:2000i, including NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i, would also be restricted from shipment to advanced process fabs in China. Dassen anticipated that this will impact 10% to 15% of sales in the Chinese market in 2024. However, he emphasized that this aligns with the financial forecasts provided in the third quarter of last year, and the demand for mature manufacturing processes remains robust.
For the full year of 2023, ASML reported a net sales revenue of EUR 27.6 billion, with a net income of EUR 7.8 billion and a gross profit margin of 51.3%. ASML estimates that the net sales for 2024 will be similar to those in 2023.
Read more
(Photo credit: ASML)
News
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States published a new article on the January 12th, 2024, suggesting that the new battleground in the US-China tech war could be silicon photonics technology. This technology aims to enhance transmission efficiency, reduce latency, and reshape the competition landscape between the US and China in semiconductors and AI.
According to TechNews’ report citing the author Matthew Reynolds’ notes in the article, unlike electronics, photonics uses photons instead of electrons to transmit information. When combined with electronic technology, photonics has the potential to create large-scale computing systems with higher bandwidth and energy efficiency, surpassing the physical limitations of traditional electronic chips.
However, the Chinese government has recently shown interest in photonics, seeing it as one way to bypass Western technological controls. Photonics technology is mentioned in China’s Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and Vision 2035.
Yao Yang, the director of the National Development Institute at Beijing University, believes that US semiconductor restrictions are a “shooting themselves in the foot” because photonic chips will eventually make electronic chips obsolete.
He also sees this as an opportunity for China to overtake, asserting that China has the capability to take the lead in this emerging technology, as mentioned in his recent article.
However, Matthew Reynolds believes that it’s unlikely for photon chips to replace electronic chips, at least not in the near future. Photonics and electronics are more likely to coexist, forming a symbiotic relationship.
What is certain, though, is that silicon photonics technology holds the potential to become a breakthrough for China in advancing to the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing.
Reportedly, the most direct application of silicon photonics technology is in optical interconnects, replacing the copper wiring in circuits with photonics to speed the transmission of information between processors and/or memory, reducing the input/output bottlenecks currently plaguing AI computing.
In addition to optical interconnects, another application area for silicon photonics is in the emerging field of optical computing. Photon processors utilize light instead of electrons for computation. While their range of computational types is limited, they show significant promise in performing matrix multiplication operations, a crucial component, especially in large-scale language models, constituting over 90% of inference computations.
Chinese economist Chen Wenling from the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) stated in an article addressing the anti-American blockade that silicon photonics is the technology that China can use to overtake.
“China is preparing to build a photonic chip production line, which is expected to be completed in 2023, which means that China will be at the forefront of the world in terms of photonic chips, and even completely change the chip technology route. Photonic chips have many technical advantages. Its calculation speed is faster and its information capacity is larger, which will be more than 1,000 times higher than the current silicon-based chips.” Chen expressed.
Lightelligence, a U.S.-based optical computing company, previously received funding from the Chinese government and has recently launched the AI accelerator “Hummingbird.” Hummingbird utilizes optical interconnect components, connecting to chips manufactured by TSMC using 28-nanometer process.
Although this process may not be at the forefront of current technology, it aligns with China’s semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Lightelligence even claims that its latency and efficiency metrics surpass those of competitors in certain AI tasks.
Additionally, Lightelligence has introduced the “Photonic Arithmetic Computing Engine” (PACE), an optical computing system. PACE integrates photonic and electronic components on a single chip and, in certain compute-intensive applications, boasts processing speeds 25-100 times faster than Nvidia’s high-end GPUs.
China’s SinTone Microelectronics is in the process of establishing a silicon photonics chip production line. Sui Jun, the president of SinTone Microelectronics, indicated that China has the capability to produce photon chips domestically because the manufacturing process does not require the use of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are subject to U.S. sanctions.
Simultaneously, a research team at Tsinghua University in China announced a breakthrough in overcoming the traditional physical limitations of chips, presenting a new computational framework that integrates optics and electronics. They successfully developed the world’s first all-simulated optoelectronic intelligent computing chip (ACCEL).
In terms of computational power for smart visual target recognition tasks, ACCEL exceeds current high-performance commercial chips by over 3,000 times. In the realms of smart visual target recognition tasks and computations for unmanned system scenarios, its energy efficiency surpasses existing high-performance chips by more than 4 million times.
While the commercialization timeline for ACCEL remains uncertain, researchers believe it holds the potential for applications in unmanned systems, industrial inspection, and AI large-scale models in the future.
Silicon Photonics Poised to Transform the US-China Tech War and AI Landscape
Matthew Reynolds believes that silicon photonics is the foundation and driving force behind advancements in optical interconnects and optical computing, reshaping the competitive landscape in the semiconductor and AI industries between the US and China.
While US export measures aim to sever China’s capabilities in advanced chip manufacturing, silicon photonics appears to be a new opportunity for China to take a different path.
However, Matthew Reynolds notes that despite the promotion of photon processor performance, its current applicability remains relatively narrow, contrasting sharply with the universality of electronic processors.
Additionally, the application of silicon photonics technology still faces numerous technical challenges, requiring software development in operating systems and applications to enhance performance in optical computing.
Therefore, achieving optical computing may still require several years, or even decades. Given the current pace of AI development, any delays could have serious consequences. Leading semiconductor companies in the United States and allied nations are also investing heavily in silicon photonics. It remains uncertain whether China can secure a leadership position.
Matthew Reynolds points out that regardless, new technologies and architectures are likely to redefine the components of advanced chips. They may weaken the impact of existing control measures or reshape the competitive landscape.
The US export controls may inadvertently stimulate China to allocate more resources to emerging technologies, positioning itself as a key player in the next generation of semiconductors, especially as Moore’s Law approaches its limits and demand for AI computing continues to grow.
Read more
(Photo credit: iStock)
News
The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated the “National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (NAPMP) ,” with materials and substrates being the first subsidized areas. Due to the close collaboration between IC testing and IC substrates, it is not ruled out that the IC substrate industry could be the next recipient of subsidies under the U.S. chip legislation.
However, according to Commercial Times’ report, there is a lack of interest among Taiwanese PCB manufacturers in establishing facilities in the U.S., and there are three main reasons for this.
Firstly, the PCB industry thrives on economies of scale, and the production costs in the U.S. are too high. Taiwanese manufacturers have recently responded to the China Plus One Strategy by establishing facilities in Southeast Asia, making it unlikely for them to set up operations in the U.S.
Secondly, the U.S. is not particularly welcoming to polluting industries, making pure substrate manufacturers more likely candidates.
Thirdly, domestic PCB manufacturers in the U.S. are also relocating their production lines. If seeking a partnership is necessary, Japanese manufacturers may present a more viable option.
As for potential subsidy recipients, industry experts speculate that one of the more likely beneficiaries could be TTM Technologies, a major PCB manufacturer in the United States. TTM announced in 2023 the establishment of a new facility in the state of New York dedicated to producing HDI PCBs, primarily for military applications in line with U.S. strategic requirements.
The United States plans to invest USD 3 billion in three main areas: an advanced packaging piloting facility, workforce training programs, and funding for projects. The funding is derived from the CHIPS and Science Act, and detailed information on the subsidy program is expected to be announced in early 2024.
In response to this news, the Taiwan Printed Circuit Association pointed out that the conditions for subsidies under the CHIPS and Science Act are stringent. In the past year, the semiconductor supply chain-related companies, led by foundry outsourcing, have started to establish a production presence in the U.S. This includes not only foundries such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel but also packaging and testing facilities like Amkor and ASE Group.
The association highlighted that IC substrates are part of the semiconductor supply chain, but the more immediate impact is on packaging and testing facilities. If global packaging and testing facilities also take concrete actions to establish operations in the U.S. following the “whole chip” production mindset, the pressure on IC substrate manufacturing will undoubtedly increase. It is not ruled out that the IC substrate industry could be the next focus of the U.S. government’s attention.
While the production scale of IC substrates (or the overall PCB) in the U.S. may not be significant, once categorized as a strategic material, even small-scale production becomes meaningful.
In other words, establishing operations in the U.S. is not solely about scale but rather about companies having the “capability” to produce locally. Reportedly, the industry should pay attention to the future developments in U.S. policy in this regard.
Read more
(Photo credit: iStock)
News
As companies increased their investments in 2023, the Chinese semiconductor industry actively expanded, leading to a substantial increase in the import volume of China’s chip manufacturing equipment.
According to Bloomberg’s report citing official Chinese customs data, the import value of equipment used in the production of computer chips in China surged by 14% in 2023, reaching nearly USD 40 billion. This marks the second-highest import value recorded since 2015, indicating that Chinese semiconductor companies are rapidly investing in new fabs. This effort is expected to aim at enhancing capabilities and circumventing export controls imposed by the United States and its allies.
In 2023, before the implementation of new export controls, China experienced a sharp increase in the import of semiconductor equipment from the Netherlands.
Due to companies rushing to make purchases before the implementation of restrictive measures in the Netherlands, the import value of photolithography equipment from the country in December 2023, as per IJIWEI’s report, saw an almost 1000% year-on-year increase, reaching USD 1.1 billion.
Even before these restrictions took effect, Dutch company ASML complied with the U.S. government’s request to halt the shipment of certain high-end equipment to China.
In early January 2024, ASML reported that the Dutch government partially revoked previously issued licenses for the shipment of NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography machines in 2023. This is expected to have an impact on specific customers in China.
Despite restrictions on China’s advanced process technology deployment, the main reason for its substantial purchases of semiconductor equipment lies in its efforts to break through in mature manufacturing processes.
According to a recent TrendForce’s data, China currently has 44 operational semiconductor fabs, with an additional 22 under construction. By the end of 2024, 32 Chinese wafer fabs will expand their capacity for 28-nanometer and older mature chips.
TrendForce predicts that by 2027, China’s share of mature process capacity in the global market will increase from 31% in 2023 to 39%, with further growth potential if equipment procurement progresses smoothly.
Read more
(Photo credit: ASML)
News
The U.S. lawmakers is reportedly attempting to further drive the “decoupling” of the Pentagon’s supply chain from China. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the U.S. Congress has prohibited the Pentagon from procuring batteries produced by six Chinese companies, including CATL and BYD.
Additionally, the other four battery manufacturers set to be banned are Envision Energy, EVE Energy, Gotion High-Tech, and Hithium Energy Storage Technology. Based on the report, of the top 10 battery suppliers in the world, just three are non-Chinese companies.
It is noted that this regulation is part of the “2024 National Defense Authorization Act,” passed on December 22, 2023. However, commercial purchases, such as Ford’s procurement of batteries from CATL in Michigan and Tesla’s sourcing of batteries from BYD, are temporarily exempt from these measures.
As per IJIWEI’s report, the U.S. government has long been eyeing the Chinese new energy vehicle supply chain. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen argued that China’s new energy vehicle industry posed a threat to the “national security” of the United States.
At the end of 2023, a document was signed, stipulating that from 2024 onwards, all electric vehicles produced in the U.S. are prohibited from using Chinese batteries. The signing of this document is evidently unfavorable for companies in the electric vehicle battery industry looking to expand into the U.S. market.
According to the conditions for electric vehicle subsidies under the U.S. IRA Act, starting in 2024, the use of battery components produced by entities from “Foreign Entity of Concern” (FEOC) countries is prohibited. In 2025, the prohibition extends to the use of key minerals processed or recycled in FEOC countries. FEOC encompasses China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran.
The U.S. Department of Energy, in December 2023, released a notification of a proposed interpretive rule, requesting comments to define FEOC, covering overseas subsidiaries of Chinese companies and overseas enterprises with more than 25% ownership by Chinese state-owned enterprises.
However, given the current distribution of the battery supply chain, completely bypassing the Chinese battery supply chain in the U.S. is challenging. Even if feasible, it would come with substantial costs. The result could be a short-term inability to reduce vehicle prices, further impacting the gradually weakening demand for electric vehicles in the United States.
TrendForce indicates that the combined sales of BEVs and PHEVs in the United States totaled approximately 1.46 million vehicles in 2023. Due to the requirement that many vehicles must meet local assembly criteria in the U.S. to qualify for subsidies, numerous models lost subsidies in 2023.
It is expected that in 2024, various automakers will increase the proportion of local assembly, expanding consumer options to stimulate demand. However, stringent conditions for battery adoption could become one of the variables affecting the growth of electric vehicle sales in the United States.
Read more
(Photo credit: Pixabay)