According to Daily Telegraph, Coherent’s fab located in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, Northern England, is facing potential sale or closure as Apple ceased a supply agreement. Currently, the plant is under review, which might turn out to be sold. Coherent has issued a last-time-buy notice to its customers.

The UK fab primarily manufactured III-V compound semiconductor RF microelectronics and optoelectronic devices for communications, aerospace and defense sectors. The collaboration between the plant and Apple involved Face ID feature in iPhones.

However, Apple had put an end to the related key product supply contract with Coherent in late fiscal 2023. In its latest financial report, Coherent noted a significant decline in sales of VCSEL products for 3D sensing in Apple’s iPhones, which had a remarkable impact on the company’s overall revenue.

It’s worth noting that Coherent’s fab laid off over 100 employees in April 2023, retaining around 250. Later, Coherent indicated in the last-time-buy notice that Apple’s termination of the supply agreement further placed the ongoing viability of the business in doubt. A strategic review is undertaken, with potential new technologies or a sale as options under consideration. It remains to be seen if the UK government will weigh in to broker a sale to an acceptable buyer.

• Apple’s Supply Chain Changes with the Evolution of VCSEL Technologies

Likewise, another optical and photonics device manufacturer, Lumentum, has fallen into a similar situation. Per foreign media reports in March 2024, Lumentum would dismiss 750 staffs, which accounts for 10% of its global workforce at the time.

Lumentum is a core supplier of VCSEL lasers for Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro series. However, Ming-Chi Kuo, renowned Apple analyst, revealed in early 2023 that Sony would replace Lumentum in design, and become the exclusive supplier of VCSEL products for the LiDAR scanner in the iPhone 15 Pro series. This variation implies a reduced market share for Lumentum in the VCSEL segment of iPhone.

Indeed, Apple has consistently updated its technologies in smartphones, resulting in corresponding structural and design adjustments and changes in its supplier lineup.

TrendForce’s latest research report, “2024 Infrared Sensing Application Market and Branding Strategies,” shows iPhone 15 Pro adopts Sony’s stacked structure technology, which integrates the VCSEL, driver IC, SPAD, and ISP (ASIC Chip) in a stacked structure. This approach significantly reduces system size while achieving high-speed response and high output power, providing better LiDAR scanning performance at the same power level, extending battery lifespan, and enhancing camera and augmented reality capabilities.

Furthermore, TrendForce’s survey reveals that Apple plans to introduce MetaLens technology in 2024 to reduce the size of emitting components, and to adopt under-display 3D sensing technology in 2027 to increase the display screen ratio. Under-display 3D sensing uses short-wave infrared VCSEL (SWIR VCSEL) to reduce interference from sunlight and ambient light and minimize the occurrence of white spots. Noticeably, 1,130nm VCSEL has achieved a PCE (Photoelectric Conversion Efficiency) of over 30%, and currently, ams OSRAM’s 1,130nm VCSEL can already deliver superior performance, enabling it to come out on top in the market.

Thereby, it is evident that the continuous evolution of Apple’s iPhone 3D sensing solutions has caused striking changes in the VCSEL ecosystem. With new manufacturers like Sony entering the supply chain, Coherent and Lumentum are suffering a gradual decline in their market shares.

• More Opportunities Emerge amid the Overwhelming Trend of AI

While consumer electronics remain a crucial market for VCSEL technology, the global AI wave is driving its increasing importance in data center, optical communication, and automotive LiDAR, which will position VCSEL as a vital support for implementing AI functionalities. For example, VCSEL is a perfect fit for short-distance optical interconnections in data center, underpinning the operation of cloud and edge computing infrastructure integral to AI computing.

Currently, photonics manufacturers are already gearing up to develop higher-performance VCSEL technology to meet potential demands in high-growth application areas such as AI, high-performance computing (HPC), networking, and automotive LiDAR. In this context, VCSEL market demand and market size are expected to enjoy ongoing growth, presenting more opportunities for related manufacturers and infusing new vigour into their business growth.

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(Photo credit: Apple)

In the bustling tech bazaar, the iPhone 14 Pro and AirPods 3 are pioneering the tech industry by incorporating InP(Indium phosphide)-based EEL(Edge Emitting Laser). These devices are leveraging the unique attributes of long-wavelength technology for skin detection, which is a strategic move that highlights the gradual emergence of InP material in the consumer market.

Historically, data communication and telecom industries have acted as the primary fuel for the InP market, their demand for backbone network photoelectric and 400G/800G optical modules in data centers has been consistent. However, as the quality and refinement of 6-inch InP single-crystal growth technology advance, we see a reduction in production costs, thus unlocking a gateway to consumer applications.

Emerging Dual Frontiers: Consumer and Photonic Applications

Apple and other savvy smartphone OEMs are contemplating the introduction of long-wavelength InP-based EEL in their next-gen products. This would be used for physiological sensing in proximity sensors or possibly to replace the currently used 940nm GaAs-based VCSEL(Vertical Surface Emitting Laser) in 3D sensing.

Simultaneously, the evolution of autonomous driving is nudging automotive laser radars towards the 1550nm wavelength, a departure from the former 905nm. This shift promises increased detection range and improved protection for human eyes.

In the realm of photonics communication technology, a more significant growth driver stems from the trend of high-end EML(Electro-absorption Modulated Laser) replacing traditional DFBs(Distributed-feedback laser).

As next-gen data center applications are steered towards 400G/800G transmission speed solutions, EML laser chips promising high bandwidth performance and high yield will take the spotlight. They are anticipated to realize the high-speed transmission characteristics of single-wavelength 100G.

It is also worth noting that as fiber-optic access in the PON (Passive Optical Network) market gradually upgrades to the 25G/50G-PON solution, there is an evident trend towards integrated solutions combining laser chips and SOAs (Semiconductor Optical Amplifiers). This shift is driven by the increasing demands for higher transmission rates and output power, leading to the replacement of discrete DFB solutions.

Supply Chain Over-centralization: A Precursor to a Sellers’ Market?

This cornucopia of application scenarios signals tremendous market potential for InP-based components. However, one must question whether the supply chain is prepared for this windfall.

One of the concern is that the industry chain’s over-centralization might usher in a seller’s market situation.

InP substrate materials and epitaxial silicon wafers pose a high technological threshold and are primarily monopolized by few manufacturers, particularly those from Europe, the U.S. and Japan.

• The InP substrate material market is highly monopolized by Sumitomo Electric Industries, AXT, and JX NMM, which collectively account for 90% of market share in 2020.
• The epitaxy process is the crux of photonic chip production, with tech prowess directly impacting product performance and reliability. Key suppliers capable of providing InP epitaxy silicon wafers include IQE, Lumentum, and Sumitomo, among others.
• In terms of photonic chip technology, its value lies more in added functionality, necessitating process integration. This gives rise to IDM giants dominating the market. For instance, Lumentum, Sumitomo, and Mitsubishi dominate the 25G DFB laser chip market.

While the influx of newcomers from China is seen in the lower-tech optical module packaging sector, the core technologies upstream are still held firmly by international industry leaders, posing a challenging breakthrough for newcomers in the short term.

The growing interest in the market for this technology indicates that end-product manufacturers developing new applications based on InP will inevitably need to double down their efforts to ensure the stability of long-term supply. It remains to be seen whether the singularity of the supply chain will further restrict the proliferation of emerging applications in the end market.