Mature process foundries are locked in a battle to uphold a 60% capacity utilization rate. Reports indicate that major players, including UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and PSMC, are slashing prices significantly for the first quarter of the coming year to salvage their capacity utilization rates. This reduction, reaching double-digit percentages and up to 15% to 20% for project customers, stands out as the most extensive post-pandemic price cut, according to UDN News.

Post-Pandemic Price Challenges in Mature Process Foundries    

This pricing adjustment is pushing the prices of mature process foundries to a new low post-pandemic, affecting the profit margins and profitability trends of related companies. Industry sources disclose that only TSMC’s prices remain robust, with almost no exception for other foundries.

To rescue capacity utilization rates, companies are aggressively tweaking their quotes. A source from an IC design company privately reveals that foundries have notified them of slow-moving business in mature processes, resulting in a direct drop in capacity utilization rates. To ensure capacity utilization rates and market share, maintaining a certain level of production scale becomes imperative, prompting a substantial reduction in quotes.

Industry sources emphasize that despite recent indications of recovery in the PC and smartphone markets, clients remain cautious due to external factors such as inflation, especially given almost a year of inventory clearance. Companies, still on edge, fear slipping back into the challenges of inventory clearance and thus maintain a conservative approach to order placement.

Currently, the recovery in order placement strength is only about 30% to 40% of pre-pandemic levels, compelling wafer foundries to intensify their price cuts to prevent orders from being lost to competitors willing to lower prices, resulting in even lower capacity utilization.

It is evident that consumer IC demand for foundry services is low, and whom focusing on 8-inch mature process are the most affected. It is mainly due to excessive duplicate orders from integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and IC design companies in the past, leading to inventory clearance for chips such as power management ICs, driver ICs, and microcontrollers (MCUs). Some products have even shifted to 12-inch wafers, keeping the capacity utilization rates of 8-inch foundries at a low level.

Navigate Semiconductor Shifts in TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC

Industry sources note that TSMC is bolstered by advanced processes, enabling them to bundle them with mature processes for sale. Moreover, TSMC’s pricing strategy for mature processes has not surged as dramatically as that of other related companies, making it more acceptable to customers.

As for UMC, the company anticipates a drop in capacity utilization rates from 67% in the last quarter to 60% to 63% in this quarter, reaching a single-season low in recent years. Due to the continuous adjustment of capacity utilization rates, the gross profit margin will drop from 35.9% last quarter to 31% to 33%, reverting to levels seen at the beginning of the pandemic in 2021.

In response to pricing issues, UMC stated that, as mentioned in a recent earnings call, there will indeed be a significant decrease in the 8-inch, but there will be no adjustments for the 12-inch. Supply chain sources reveal that UMC has reportedly offered a 5% concession, aiming to consolidate order momentum with major clients this quarter. Considering the anticipated weak demand in the first quarter of next year and to attract more order placements, UMC plans to expand the price reduction to double-digit percentages.

According to the supply chain, VIS is expected to see a price reduction of up to 5% in the second half of the year. Large-volume clients may even secure a 10% discount, with a further decrease expected in the first quarter of next year, ranging from single to double-digit percentages. The company’s management previously mentioned at a conference call that, in response to intense price competition, short-term flexible adjustments are anticipated.

Similarly impacted by conservative customer order placements, PSMC reported losses in the third quarter, with capacity utilization rates hovering around 60%. It is reported that PSMC is also gearing up to implement price reduction measures to enhance capacity utilization rates.

(Image: VIS)

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The Chinese city of Xi’an has been placed under lockdown due to a local outbreak of the Delta variant, although it remains uncertain as to when the lockdown will end, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Samsung operates two memory fabs in Xi’an, both of which are responsible for the manufacturing of high-layer count 3D NAND Flash products, and wafer inputs at the two fabs account for 42.5% of Samsung’s total NAND Flash production capacity and 15.3% of the global total. At the moment, the lockdown of the city is not expected to have a notable impact on these fabs.

Nevertheless, the municipal government has been authorized to enforce very severe restrictions on the movements of people and goods in and out of the city during this lockdown. While Samsung has finished arranging most of the memory product shipments for the period from the end of 2021 to middle of January next year, the company could face logistical issues related to the Xi’an lockdown in the near future and experience delays in shipments. Samsung’s clients, in turn, could have difficulties planning their procurement activities because deliveries of memory components are not in accordance with the originally set dates. Additionally, the same logistical issues could cause delays in the deliveries of production-related materials to Samsung’s fabs in Xi’an. However, the fabs have sufficient inventory to continue normal production over the next several months.

On the other hand, Xi’an is a strategically important location for both Samsung’s NAND Flash production and Micron’s memory packaging and testing operations. TrendForce’s investigations indicate that the lockdown will likewise have no impact on Micron’s packaging and testing operations, although potential issues with logistics still remain to be seen. In any case, while memory packaging and testing capacities in Xi’an account for a relatively low share of the company total, the lockdown may potentially affect spot prices of DRAM products in the short run.

Short-term DRAM and NAND Flash spot prices may bump up

In terms of pricing, the spot price of NAND Flash has not fluctuated significantly due to the lockdown event. Both buyers and sellers hold significant inventory in the current spot market. Recent trading volume has been weak and price fluctuations have been small. TrendForce will continue to observe subsequent reactions in the NAND Flash spot market and does not rule out the possibility of a short-term price bump due to the expected psychological impact triggered by the lockdown event.

In terms of NAND Flash contract pricing trends moving forward, since production is unaffected, TrendForce still maintains its original opinion, forecasting that average pricing in 1Q22 will fall by 10-15%. However, because the impact of logistics is difficult to predict, the purchasing side may have to increase orders from other suppliers, further fueling a bargain-seeking mentality. The possibility of seeing a flattening in the amplitude of contract price declines for various NAND Flash products in the first quarter of next year cannot be ruled out.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

As UMC and GlobalFoundries successively end their respective developments of advanced processes, the advanced process market has now become an oligopoly, with TSMC and Samsung as the only remaining suppliers （excluding SMIC, which is currently affected by geopolitical tensions between China and the US）. According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, TSMC holds a 70% market share in advanced processes below – and including – the 1Xnm node, while Samsung’s market share is about 30%.

As electronic products demand faster data transmission speeds and better performance in response to IoT and 5G applications, the chips contained in these products also need to shrink in size and consume less power. Hence, process technologies need to evolve in order to enable the production of increasingly advanced chips. In this light, suppliers of such chips as smartphone AP, CPU, and GPU primarily rely on Taiwan for its semiconductor industry’s advanced process technologies.

Why is Taiwan able to hold key manufacturing competencies, market shares, and unsurpassed technologies in the global foundry industry?

After TSMC pioneered its pure-play foundry services more than 30 years ago, UMC also subsequently transitioned to a foundry business model. However, the build-out and maintenance of wafer fabs require enormous human resources, capital expenditures, and environmental support, all of which have been skyrocketing since the industry progressed below the 40nm node into the EUV era. Factors including governmental support, human resource development, utility services, and long-term amortization and depreciation are all indispensable for foundries to keep up their fab operations. TrendForce’s findings indicate that Taiwan possesses about 50% of the global foundry capacity, and this figure will likely continue growing due to the persistent demand for advanced processes.

Taiwanese foundries led by TSMC and UMC operate based on a pure-play foundry model, which means they do not compete with their clients outside of foundry operations. Foundries are able to maximize the profitability of the semiconductor ecosystem in Taiwan thanks to Taiwan’s comprehensive PC, ICT, and consumer electronics industries.

In addition, not only are they able to deliver PPA（performance, power, and area） advantages to their clients through technology scaling and node shrinking, they are also unsurpassed in their comprehensive silicon IP cores and longstanding product development services. Other competing foundries are unlikely to make breakthroughs in these fields and catch up to Taiwanese foundries in the short run.

On the whole, the Taiwanese foundry industry is able to maintain its leadership thanks to competencies in human capital, client strategies, process technologies, capital intensify, economies of scale, and superior production capacities.

Furthermore, not only do advancements in semiconductor fabrication technology require developmental efforts from foundries, but they also need support throughout the entire supply chain, including upstream wafer suppliers and downstream client feedbacks, both of which can serve to eliminate yield detractors and raise yield rates. Therefore, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry derives its advantage from foundries（TSMC, UMC, PSMC, and VIS）, as well as from the cross-industrial support across silicon wafer suppliers（SAS and GlobalWafers）, fabless IC design clients, and packaging and testing operators（ASE, etc.）

（Cover image source: TSMC）

Owing to an uncontrolled spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has instituted Level 3 restrictions throughout the island. With employees from several tech companies testing positive for the virus, major foundries, including TSMC and VIS, are successively finding positive cases among their midst as well. Worries have therefore cropped up in the global semiconductor supply chain over whether the supply of chip can remain unaffected despite the infections in Taiwan.

Taking into account Taiwan’s share of foundry capacity within the global total, the aforementioned supply chain’s worries are not without merit. According to TrendForce’s investigations, Taiwanese foundries, including TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC, collectively account for about 50% of the global foundry capacity, meaning about 50% of the global supply of chips is contingent on Taiwan.

However, TrendForce also finds that, despite the domestic spread of the pandemic, which forced various companies to institute WFH policies for their employees, most semiconductor fabs are operating without interruptions at the moment, indicating that the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to impact the production and supply of chips.

As well, both TSMC and VIS have immediately made public announcements stating that their operations remain unaffected by the positive cases. However, whether the pandemic can be sufficiently managed and whether it will hinder the supply of semiconductors going forward remains to be seen.

（Cover image source: Pixabay）