On October 15th, Intel and AMD announced the formation of an x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group. According to the press release, these two tech giants established this group to enhance architectural interoperability and simplify software development for the x86 system.

Other members of this x86 Ecosystem Advisory group include industry leaders from Broadcom, Dell, Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP Inc., Lenovo, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Red Hat.

The press release stated that for over forty years, x86 has served as the foundation of modern computing, establishing itself as the preferred architecture in data centers and PCs worldwide.

According to a report from Forbes, x86 has long been the dominant architecture in both datacenters and PCs, while Arm has a strong presence in smartphones and IoT. However, Arm has recently started to encroach on x86’s territory, as seen in its increasing adoption within hyperscale datacenters and its emerging role in Microsoft’s Copilot+ PC initiative.

A report from Reuters stated that Intel and AMD have formed this group in response to the challenges posed by the rise of Arm Holdings, which is increasingly adopted by tech giants including Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

According to the report from Reuters, one of the main reason behind Arm’s success is that Arm has indicated in its contracts that all Arm chips should be able to run all Arm software, regardless of who made the chip.

The report noted that, in contrast, while Intel and AMD use the same foundational x86 technology in their chips, software may require adjustments to function properly across their products.

To address this issue, one of the main objectives of the x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group is to identify “new ways to expand the x86 ecosystem by enabling compatibility across platforms,” as stated in the press release.

Intel and AMD have a rich history of both competition and collaboration within the industry, which makes this partnership quite interesting. In the past decade, Intel’s dominance in the laptop processors has gradually declined. In some sectors, AMD even caught up and overtook Intel’s throne.

Amid Intel’s efforts for restructuring, previous rumors even indicate that AMD could be a potential buyer of Intel’s Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) unit Altera.

On the other hand, the two companies’  joint efforts have played a crucial role in developing key technologies such as PCI, PCIe, and the Advanced Configuration and Power Interface (ACPI).

Additionally, both companies have been crucial in the development of USB, an essential connectivity standard for all computers, regardless of the processor.

This advisory group aims to elevate their collaborative efforts further, benefiting the entire computing ecosystem and serving as a catalyst for product innovation.

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• [News] AMD Could Emerge as a Prospective Buyer for Intel’s Potential Sale of Altera
• [News] Intel Shifts to TSMC for Chip Production: A Looming Threat for AMD?

(Photo credit: Intel)

Rumors are going around the market about Intel’s next move, as names of big techs, such as Qualcomm, have been brought up as potential buyers. On the other hand, U.S.-based asset management firm Apollo is also said to be showing interest in making an equity-like investment worth up to USD 5 billion in Intel.

However, are the rumors making sense? What would be the wisest decision for Intel to make? Here’s a roundup of the semiconductor giant’s core businesses, and a quick analysis of its next steps.

Intel Might Be Working on Restructuring and Adjustments Months ago

Before Intel’s formal announcement of delaying its German project for two years, the company has actually been carrying out plans for restructuring discreetly and adjusting its strategy in the meantime, which can date back to months ago.

This could be further echoed with Intel’s decision in June to sell a 49% equity interest related to the Fab 34 in Ireland to Apollo. Then, in July, after reporting a loss of USD 7 billion in its manufacturing business for 2023, Intel stated that its investment in France and Italy could not be realized for the time being, and suspended relevant investment plans for chip plants and R&D centers.

Five Core Businesses to Watch: x86 Unlikely to be Sold

Still, the struggling giant has five core businesses, which consists of the following segments: x86 CPUs for the consumer and data center markets, the networking business, Intel Foundry Services (IFS), FPGA unit Altera and Mobileye for automotive driver-assist systems.

Among these, x86 CPU remains the most profitable segment, which is also Intel’s core strength. As the revenue contribution, gross margin, and operating margin of the product line stay healthy, Intel is unlikely to sell the segment in the current scenario.

On the other hand, though Intel has denied the plan to divest a majority stake in Mobileye last week, the self-driving company, which listed on Nasdaq in 2022, would be one of the easiest target for Intel to handle. Industry insiders believe that companies like Japanese semiconductor firm Renesas, U.S. chip giant Qualcomm, Taiwan-based MediaTek, or those aiming to enter the automotive electronics sector could be potential buyers.

As for Altera’s FPGA unit, which also previously denied rumors of being for sale, industry experts suggest that AMD could still be a potential buyer. Acquiring Altera would allow the U.S. chip giant to expand its FPGA product lineup, effectively integrating it with its existing portfolio.

In addition, the networking division could also be sold as a standalone entity, which might be easier for Intel to execute.

What is Qualcomm Eyeing for?                       

The latest reports by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg indicate that Qualcomm has reached out to Intel regarding a potential acquisition offer, which would rank as one of the largest-ever technology mergers if the deal were to take place.

However, if Qualcomm were to pursue the x86 business or the entire Intel, it would be a significant financial burden for the U.S. chip maker. Moreover, as a chip design company, Qualcomm would lack the expertise to manage the IFS foundry, while the sector still suffered from significant losses.

Additionally, the deal would require scrutiny from antitrust authorities in various countries, which could be particularly challenging in China.

Therefore, a more feasible option for Qualcomm would be to acquire Mobileye, as the company is already involved in automotive ADAS and infotainment ICs. Acquiring the networking division would be another reasonable choice.

What would be the next page for Intel? To sum up, the 56-year-old semiconductor giant still has solid products, such as the x86 CPUs. Its main issue lies in the slightly deviated strategic direction and execution over the past few years, particularly as it positions itself to compete with TSMC in the most advanced nodes. By addressing these missteps and making proper arrangements afterwards, the company still holds significant value.

Read more

• [News] Qualcomm’s Potential Takeover of Intel Might Have Minimal Impact on TSMC, But Not MediaTek
• [News] Update on Potential Investors of Intel: Apollo Rumored in; Broadcom Temporarily out

(Photo credit: Intel)

During the Snapdragon Summit 2023 in October, Qualcomm made a big announcement by introducing the Snapdragon X Elite chip, built on TSMC’s cutting-edge 4nm process. Qualcomm’s claim is bold; they assert that the chip will deliver superior performance compared to Intel’s x86 architecture and Apple’s M2 chip. Simultaneously, towards the end of October, Apple revealed its own Arm-based M3 chip. Notably, semiconductor giants AMD and NVIDIA are rumored to be exploring the development of new PC processors on the Arm architecture. The future outlook suggests that Arm-based processors may gradually cut in the market share traditionally held by x86 architecture processors.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Qualcomm’s New PC Processor Poised to Expand the Arm-Based PC Processor Market

Following Intel’s September 2023 Meteor Lake processor release, Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X Elite, its latest Arm-based PC processor in October. This chip leverages TSMC’s advanced 4nm technology. Qualcomm is forging partnerships with Taiwanese heavyweights such as Quanta, Compal, Wistron, Acer, Asus, Realtek, Nuvoton and others, aiming to secure a foothold in the CPU market within the PC supply chain. This collaborative effort is expected to yield new PC products hitting the market in 2024.

As of 2023, Arm commands approximately 11% of the market share. Apple, a pioneer in PC chips built on the Arm architecture, has seen success with the release of three generations of processors since the 2020 debut of M1 chip.

With Qualcomm entering the Arm architecture group, AMD also intends to step into Arm architecture with the upcoming Phoenix processor, set for launch in 2025. There are also whispers of NVIDIA partnering with MediaTek to develop a chip processor featuring SoC+GPU capabilities on the Arm architecture, with an initial focus on ChromeBook market, where MediaTek boasts years of experience.

In the PC market, significant factors include processor development timelines, product performance, power efficiency, extended battery life, and compatibility with software and hardware. High-end CPUs and GPUs have become indispensable components for high-end computers. Currently, Intel leads the CPU market, with AMD following closely in the x86 landscape. As more companies delve into the development of Arm-based processors, there is potential for them to carve a share from the x86 market in the future.

2. Arm Architecture Processors Gain Momentum, Intel Focusing on AI Software Application Processor Development

Apple’s M-series chips demonstrate their efficiency and extended battery life. Microsoft recognizes the advantages of the Arm architecture and is dedicated to fostering a strategic collaboration for Windows on Arm. This collaboration involves integrating operating systems with processors to attract leading manufacturers to engage in Arm-based processor development, aligning with the growing demands for AI PCs.

In the realm of x86 architecture, Intel enjoys a dominant position in the CPU market. To tap into the opportunities arising from AI PCs, Intel has integrated AI acceleration engine features into its processors, introducing a new generation of AI application processors that combine CPU, GPU, and NPU (Neural Processing Unit) functionalities. This caters to the growing demand for generative AI applications in enterprise mobile PCs. Furthermore, Intel has joined forces with major laptop brands to launch new AI PCs, aiming to seize a substantial share of the market.

As momentum grows in Arm-based processor development, Intel maintains confidence that their immediate effect on the demand for x86 architecture processors will be restrained. It is unlikely to hinder Intel’s continuous advancement in developing new processors. Unlike competitors concentrating on Arm architecture processor development, Intel places a stronger focus on AI software applications and the market opportunities arising from its partnership with the Microsoft platform.

Explore more:

• [News] Qualcomm Challenges Intel & AMD in AI PC Chip Race
• [News] Intel, Samsung, TSMC Race in Cutting-Edge Processes

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. With impressive performance metrics, this development is poised to shake up the PC processor market as Arm architecture gains ground, posing a substantial challenge to the established x86 architecture.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. The launch of laptops featuring the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite is expected in mid-2024, marking an opportune moment for a “counteroffensive.”

TrendForce indicates that Arm architecture PC processors have secured around an 11% market share this year, primarily propped up by Apple’s laptop processors. Industry insiders reveal that, in light of the growth potential in the PC processor market, semiconductor giants are increasingly adopting ARM architecture to venture into the market.

2024 Sees Laptop Upgrade Surge, Desktop Market Shrinks                  

Statistics reveal that the surge in remote work during 2020 prompted a shift in consumer preferences from desktop computers to laptops. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of cloud platforms by businesses in 2021 and 2022 has generated positive momentum, signaling a shrinking desktop market and an expanding PC market.

AI-powered PCs and Windows 12 next year are expected to ride a fresh wave of upgrades in 2024. Therefore, when PCs featuring ARM architecture become widespread, Intel and AMD may not be predominantly affected in the laptop processor business based on the x86 architecture. Instead, the desktop processor segment could face the most significant impact.

Kedar Kondap, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Compute and Games Division, foresees an upgrade wave fueled by AI PCs next year, with further growth anticipated in 2025. It is expected that consumers will lean towards AI PCs for their next computer purchases.

The initial wave of products equipped with Qualcomm’s AI PC processors has been unveiled, aligning with the upcoming wave of device upgrades in next year. While Intel is set to launch its first AI acceleration engine, the Intel Core Ultra, featuring integrated NPU in December, its Microsoft Windows 12 certification remains a point of observation.

In a broader perspective, Intel and AMD are positioned to follow up with the AI PC trend by 2025. This coincides with the ending service of Windows 10 and the gradual implementation of Wifi 7 and 6G technologies. By 2028, they are expected to play a pivotal role in driving AI PC growth.

On another note, a South Korean analyst anticipates that the growth momentum in AI PCs hinges on when Apple incorporates AI features into Mac computers.

ARM vs. x86, Microsoft’s Crucial Role                                    

This is because Microsoft is set to launch Windows 12 next year, featuring the built-in Copilot AI assistant. It will collaborate with operating systems and software such as Windows, Edge, Microsoft 365, Outlook, and the Bing search engine, ushering in an entirely new AI-driven user experience.

Several tech giants are fiercely competing in the AI PC market, with NVIDIA and AMD investing in the development of Arm architecture processors. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016, Microsoft agreed to let Qualcomm exclusively develop Windows-compatible chips, and this agreement is set to expire in 2024. Consequently, Qualcomm may gain a strategic advantage. In contrast, the collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek on Arm processors might only begin to bear fruit in 2025.

As for AMD’s foray into Arm architecture research and development, whether this indicates a less optimistic outlook for the x86 market is a matter for ongoing observation. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed that he isn’t concerned about Arm architecture processors vying in the PC market. From a different perspective, Intel may even consider assisting with manufacturing.

(Image: Qualcomm)

According to TrendForce research, corporate demand for digital transformation including artificial intelligence and high-performance computing has accelerated in recent years, which has led to increasing adoption of cloud computing. In order to improve service flexibility, the world’s major cloud service providers have gradually introduced ARM-based servers. The penetration rate of ARM architecture in data center servers is expected to reach 22% by 2025.

In the past few years, ARM architecture processors have matured in the fields of mobile terminals and Internet of Things but progress in the server field has been relatively slow. However, companies have diversified cloud workloads in recent years and the market has begun to pay attention to the benefits ARM architecture processing can provide to data centers. TrendForce believes that ARM-based processors have three major advantages. First, they can support diverse and rapidly changing workloads and are more scalability and cost-effective. Second, ARM-based processors provide higher customization for different niche markets with a more flexible ecosystem. Third, physical footprint is relatively small which meets the needs of today’s micro data centers.

Influenced by geopolitics and the strengthening of data sovereignty in various countries, major cloud service providers and telecom operators are actively developing micro data centers which will further drive the penetration of ARM-based processors. At the same time, from the perspective of cloud service providers currently adopting ARM-based processors, Graviton, led by AWS, has the largest market scale and began encroaching gradually into the market in 2021. TrendForce also observed that AWS’s deployment of ARM-based processors in 2021 reached 15% of overall server deployment and will exceed 20% in 2022. This forces other major cloud service providers to keep up by initiating their own projects at various foundries. If testing is successful, these projects are expected to start mass introduction in 2025.

In addition, according to the Neoverse Platform plan previously released by ARM, its Platform Roadmap will also be one of the key drivers of penetration. This product line is set up to target ultra-large-scale data centers and edge computing infrastructure. However, it is worth mentioning, since x86 is still mainstream in the market and ARM-based server CPU suppliers only maintain small-batch production orders at this stage and primarily focus on ultra-large-scale data centers, introduction of ARM-based servers into enterprise data centers will be slow going. Thus, TrendForce believes that it will still be difficult for ARM-based servers to compete with x86-based servers before 2025.