TrendForce projects that shipments will reach 36.7 million units in 2Q23—a 15.1% QoQ growth. Comparing this number to pre-pandemic figures, with 37.3 million shipments in 2Q18 and 35.4 million shipments in 2Q19, we can see that the figures are almost on par.
TrendForce estimates that shipments of display panels used in notebook computers (NB panels) will total 38.7 million pieces for 1Q23, showing a QoQ decline of 10.4% and a YoY decline of 45.6%.
Shipments of monitor panels have fallen over the quarters this year due to various factors that have caused disruptions across the global economy and politics. TrendForce projects that shipments of monitor panels will total just around 158 million pieces for 2022, showing a YoY decline of 8.8%.
According to TrendForce, although the 1Q22 is a traditional off-season, thanks to the backstop of deferred order shipments and demand for commercial models, notebook panel shipments grew by 5.5% compared with the same period in 2021. However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February poured oil on the inflation fire. The impact of China's lockdowns in 2Q22 led to a decline in the assembly capacity of ODMs and a rise in in-plant inventories. Terminal demand was arrested by the overall harsh economic environment. Rising inventory levels made it necessary for brands to further reduce panel purchases. Moving into 3Q22, the market continued to suffer from rising inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in weak terminal demand and in high whole device inventory at the channel end, as well as high in-transit whole device and panel inventory. As distribution channels and brands actively reduce inventory, orders for notebook panels face sharp downward revisions. Shipments of notebook panels in 3Q22 is estimated to decrease by 13.4% QoQ to 45.1 million units, even lower than the 49.9 million units in the same 2019 period before the pandemic.
According to TrendForce research, terminal demand remains weak due to repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising inflation, and China's pandemic lockdowns as monitor brands began to reduce purchasing of LCD monitor panels in 2Q22. LCD monitors panel shipments in 2Q22 are estimated at 42.5 million units, down 11.3% QoQ.
According to TrendForce research, due to China's lockdowns and inventory adjustments by notebook brands, April notebook panel shipments totaled 17.5 million units, down 21.5% YoY, and a new low for shipments since April 2020 and the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, shipments of notebook panels in 2Q22 is estimated at 55.1 million units, down 21.2% QoQ and 19% YoY.
In 2021, notebook panel shipments reached a record high of 282 million units, with an annual growth rate of 25.1%, according to TrendForce’s research. In the first half of the year, demand was driven by the pandemic and primarily focused on consumer notebooks and Chromebooks while, in the second half of the year, as Europe and the United States gradually lifted lockdowns and work returned to normal, demand largely shifted to commercial models, which continued to support the demand for notebook panels throughout the year.
Owing to persistently strong demand for notebook panels and increased supply of such upstream components as ICs and TCONs, quarterly notebook panel shipment reached yet another historical high in 3Q21, with 72.27 million pcs shipped, representing an increase of 7.1% QoQ, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.
The massive rise in market demand for notebook computers in response to distance learning needs and WFH applications from 2020 to 2021 has generated not only a double-digit growth in notebook panel shipment, but also a price hike of more than 40% for notebook panels, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As various suppliers subsequently scramble to manufacture OLED, LTPS, and oxide panels, TrendForce forecasts these high-end notebook panels to reach a 17.8% market share in 2021 and 21.4% in 2022.
