In the Q3 of 2023 (July-September), global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment faced a substantial 11% decline, marking the most significant drop in four years and the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Notably, Taiwan’s market saw a nearly 50% reduction in sales, while the Chinese market achieved a historic step, crossing the 40% threshold of the global sales share for the first time, according to the report by Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ).

In collaboration with the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), SEAJ gathered data from over 80 global semiconductor equipment companies. According to the “Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment(World Wide SEMS Report)” released on December 1st, global chip equipment sales for Q3 2023 dropped by 11% to USD 25.6 billion compared to the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction.

Analyzing regional sales, Taiwan’s market sales dwindled to USD 3.77 billion, a nearly 50% decline from the same period last year (USD 7.28 billion), ranking it as the market with the highest contraction among the top 6. Conversely, the Chinese market experienced a remarkable 42% surge, reaching USD 11.06 billion, constituting 43% of the global sales for the first time and surpassing the 40% mark. This solidifies China’s position as the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market for the second consecutive quarter. Japan witnessed a substantial 29% drop to USD 1.82 billion, North America decreased by 5% to USD 2.5 billion, Europe grew by 2% to USD 1.7 billion, and South Korea faced a significant 19% decrease to USD 3.85 billion.

SEAJ highlighted that compared to the previous quarter (April-June 2023), global chip equipment sales in the last quarter decreased by 1%. In this context, the Chinese market saw a remarkable 46% increase, Taiwan witnessed a steep 34% decrease, South Korea plummeted by 32%, Europe grew by 5%, North America saw a significant 15% decrease, and Japan experienced a substantial 19% increase.

TEL’s Revised Outlook and China’s Rising Impact

Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL), a major player in the Japanese semiconductor equipment industry, released financial data on November 10. Despite delays in investments for advanced process and foundries, the company is experiencing a substantial increase in investments from Chinese customers, especially in mature process. Consequently, TEL has revised its global market size estimate for semiconductor front-end manufacturing equipment (wafer fab equipment, WFE) for the year 2023. The initial estimate made in August, which projected a market size of USD 70-75 billion (a YoY decrease of 25-30%), has been adjusted to USD 85-90 billion (a YoY decrease of 10-15%). Notably, in the last quarter (July-September), the Chinese market’s contribution to TEL’s overall revenue exceeded 40% for the first time.

TEL CEO Toshiki Kawai said, “We have seen around 20 to 30 new customers, and going forward we expect to see the Chinese market grow even further.” Kawai also added, “We have already received inquiries from China for CY2024, so we can expect some visibility. Our forecast for the first half of CY2024 in particular shows that China will continue to represent around 40% of sales by region.”

China’s top panel makers, including BOE, TCL CSOT, HKC, and CEC-CHOT, are cutting production to support TV panel prices. Speculations indicate a capacity utilization drop below 60% in the first quarter, benefiting Taiwanese panel companies like Innolux and AUO. Despite these efforts, industry sources caution of a panel industry slowdown due to reduced demand, possibly resulting in lower TV panel prices, reported by TechNews.

The memory industry saw a big downturn due to major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron drastically reducing production. This resulted in a surge in memory prices and a gradual recovery for the entire memory industry. Panel makers may adopt a similar strategy to boost the overall panel industry as well.

Chinese panel companies currently command a global market share of over 70% in TFT-LCD, with the world’s top 3 LCD panel makers from China: BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC. As China holds the largest share of panel production capacity, a reduction in production by major players could have a more substantial impact on the panel industry compared to the effects on the memory industry caused by Samsung, Micron, and others.

According to TrendForce’s report in November, BOE began adjusting its production levels in the Q3 and will continue to do so in Q4, with an estimated decrease of 7 percentage points in utilization rates. CSOT, on the other hand, maintained high utilization rates in Q3, supported by major customer stockpiling and the ramp-up of the T9 new production line. However, due to reduced procurement of TV panels by both in-house group brands and international frontline brands, CSOT’s utilization rate is expected to decrease by about 17 percentage points to 76% in Q4.

HKC, which still has two production lines not running at full capacity, anticipates a 14 percentage point decrease in its utilization rates for Q4. This is primarily due to the need to reduce production of one of its main products, the 32-inch TV panel, to alleviate inventory pressures and avoid significant price drops.

In response to this, both Innolux and AUO express their intention to dynamically adjust production capacity utilization in line with market conditions. This strategic flexibility is aimed at fostering a more robust and balanced industry order.

Overall, most panel makers are adopting a more conservative approach to production for 1Q24. Furthermore, several panel makers have indicated a two-week Lunar New Year shutdown for 2024. As a result, TrendForce anticipates that overall Gen5+ LCD panel utilization rates may be revised down to 70% or lower in 1Q24 to maintain the market supply-demand balance.

(Image: BOE)

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• [News] Samsung Ends Partnership with BOE! AUO Welcomes the Diversion Effect, but Capacity Challenges Loom
• Gen5+ LCD Panel Utilization Rates to Reach Approximately 72% in Q4, with Potential Further Decline in 1Q24, Says TrendForce
• [News] AUO Reports Strong Growth in Automotive Panel Revenue and Positive Outlook for IT Panels

According to a report from Taiwan’s Commercial Times, industry experts assert that Silicon Photonics (SiPh) is poised to revolutionize the cloud industry as communication transmission speeds surge beyond 1.6 Tbps. Utilizing Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) for integration, SiPh combines optical components and Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) technology into a singular module, effectively mitigating power consumption challenges.

Moreover, the versatility of SiPh is highlighted by its applications in communication transmission, biomedical sensing, LiDAR, high-speed AI transmission, smart healthcare, and autonomous vehicles, showcasing significant potential. This expansive range of potential applications underscores the promising future of SiPh technology.

Major players in the semiconductor landscape, including TSMC, ASE, SunSin, and Accton, express bullish sentiments towards SiPh and CPO technologies.

However, current hurdles such as chip yields and standardization remain, awaiting resolution. The anticipated timeline for tangible contributions is expected to extend beyond 2025.

In the realm of photonic integration, TSMC takes the lead among Taiwanese manufacturers. The company’s Compact Universal Photonics Engine (COUPE) offers heterogeneous integration of Photonic ICs (PICs) and Electronic ICs (EICs), resulting in a 40% reduction in energy consumption and a considerable increase in customer adoption likelihood.

TSMC has reportedly invested in a 200-person R&D team, collaborating with international clients for joint development.

ASE is actively involved in the research and development of SiPh and CPO packaging technology. Leveraging the VIPack advanced packaging platform, the market anticipates a gradual uptick in related businesses in the latter half of 2024, with significant order momentum expected to surge in 2025.

Networking company Accton is channeling efforts into the photonic integration of various components for switches. On the other hand, SunSin, a System-in-Package (SiP) testing and packaging facility, is strategically positioning itself in CPO process technology.

Explore more:

• What Is ‘Silicon Photonics’? Why Intel, TSMC, NVIDIA, Apple Are Investing
• Silicon Photonics Will Become Key to Semiconductor Future Development
• [News] TSMC Intensifies Silicon Photonics R&D, Rumored Collaboration with Broadcom and NVIDIA

(Image: ASE)

The AI landscape witnesses a robust surge with the consecutive launches of AMD’s “Instinct MI300” series AI chips and NVIDIA’s upcoming “B100” GPU structure. This wave of innovation propels a flourishing demand for AI-related Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly And Test Services (OSAT), surpassing initial estimates by over 10%. OSAT companies like ASE Holdings, King Yuan Electronics (KYEC), and Sigurd are poised to experience a notable uptick in revenue, as reported by UDN News.

According to reports, AMD is launching the “Instinct MI300” series AI chips this week, and NVIDIA plans to unveil the next-gen “B100” GPU next year. This successive release of new AI products by the two giants is boosting momentum in related OSATs collaboration.

NVIDIA is gearing up for the 2024 launch of its next-gen Blackwell architecture B100 GPU, saying AI performance exceeding twice that of the H200 GPU under the Hopper architecture, signifying a substantial leap in computational prowess.

Positive Outlook in 2024 for OSATs Amid AI Chip Development

Industry source indicates that due to the AI extensive computation requirements, advanced packaging is gradually becoming mainstream. This involves stacking chips and packaging them on a substrate. Depending on the arrangement, it is divided into 2.5D and 3D packaging. The advantage of this packaging technology is the ability to reduce chip space while also reducing power consumption and costs.

It is said the surge in AI chip orders from AMD and NVIDIA has led to a bottleneck in TSMC CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. This unexpected demand has exceeded projections for related OSATs, including ASE Holdings, KYEC, and Sigurd.

In the case of ASE Holdings, its subsidiary Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL) possesses the advanced packaging capacity essential for generative AI chips. Joseph Tung, CFO of ASE Holdings, notes that while AI currently in its early-stage and is set to drive explosive growth. As AI integrates into existing and new applications, the demand for advanced packaging is expected to fuel the industry’s entry into the next super growth cycle.

For KYEC, a significant expansion in AI chip testing capacity since Q2 this year positions the company to benefit from the surge in demand.

Sigurd’s COO Tsan-Lien Yeh addresses that, with the release of AI phones, recognizing the doubled testing time for phone chips, which now carry APU/NPU for AI computing compared to general 5G chips. Sigurd has upgraded its equipment to align with future customer needs.

(Image: ASE VIPack’s video)

Advancements continue in China’s semiconductor landscape with progress reported in five major semiconductor projects. Companies like BYD Semiconductor, Empyrean Technology, CGEE, Sinopack, and CETC (Shanxi) have witnessed recent developments across semiconductor materials, design, packaging and testing, and power semiconductors.

BYD Semiconductor: completed the first phase of power devices and sensor controller project

BYD Semiconductor has successfully completed the first phase of its Power Devices and Sensor Controller project, focusing on automotive-grade semiconductors. This project aims to establish a production line capable of producing 720,000 power device products and CNY 6 billion (about USD 847 million) sets of optical microelectronics products annually, contributing to an expected annual output value of CNY 15 billion (about USD 2.1 billion). The devices produced are critical components for new energy vehicles.

Empyrean Technology: 7 semiconductor-related projects signed to build in Xi’an

Empyrean Technology is an EDA and services provider, focusing on analog design and digital SoC solution.

Empyrean Technology’s Xi’an R&D base, along with six other projects, has been signed in Xi’an High-tech Zone. Empyrean Technology envisions its Xi’an R&D base as the largest center in northwest China. According to CCTV, these projects included fields such as integrated circuits and network security, providing essential technical support to address challenges arising from the U.S. bans.

CGEE: completed headquarters production and R&D center project

CGEE specialize in semiconductor-grade single crystal silicon furnaces (8-12 inches), 6-8 inch SiC, GaN, and associated crystal growth equipment and processes.

On November 28, CGEE highlighted the completion of the opening ceremony for its headquarters production and R&D center project. Focused on expanding production capacity, the company clarified that this project is an extension of its core business. It involves technical research, development, and upgrades in crystal growth equipment and processes, hastening the industrialization of research outcomes. This strategic move aims to assist the company in diversifying its product line to better align with customer demands.

In a recent interview, CGEE highlighted its proactive approach to enter the Taiwan market, engaging in close technical exchanges with customers. The company has not only secured bulk orders but also witnessed a continuous increase in order quantities. Furthermore, there is an active strategic deployment in overseas markets. CGEE emphasized the successful delivery and acceptance of its semiconductor-grade single crystal silicon furnaces and SiC single crystal furnaces in Taiwan.

Sinopack’s subsidiary Bowei: completed third-generation semiconductor power device industrialization project

Bowei focus on GaN communication base station RF device. The project’s annual capacity is planned to reach 6 million units.

On November 27, Sinopack announced that its subsidiary, Bowei, has successfully completed the expansion project for the third-generation semiconductor power device industrialization. The key products of this project include GaN communication base station RF chips and devices, with an annual production capacity planned at 6 million units.

Sinopack highlighted that Bowei primarily engages in integrated circuits design, packaging, testing, and sale of GaN communication RF integrated circuits products. This includes including GaN communication base station RF integrated circuits and devices, along with microwave communication RF integrated circuits and devices.

CETC (Shanxi): Completed Its third-generation semiconductor technology innovation center project

CETC(Shanxi) engage in the research, development, and industrialization of high-purity graphite and carbon-based material equipment.

The third-generation semiconductor technology innovation center of CETC (Shanxi) is situated in the Shanxi Transformation and Comprehensive Reform Demonstration Zone (Shanxi ZGQ). This center includes the trial verification line and supporting projects, along with the microelectronics smart manufacturing industry base project. The construction is planned in two phases. Upon completion of the first phase, it will possess the capacity to produce 600 units/sets of smart manufacturing equipment annually, along with 24,000 pieces/year of ceramic substrates and modular circuits. The facility will also establish a 6-inch wide bandgap semiconductor manufacturing equipment process verification platform and a common technology research and development platform.
(Image: BYD Semiconductor)