The previously elusive NVIDIA data center GPU, H100, has seen a noticeable reduction in delivery lead times amid improved market supply conditions, as per a report from Tom’s Hardware. As a result, customers who previously purchased large quantities of H100 chips are reportedly starting to resell them.

The report further points out that the previously high-demand H100 data center GPU, driven by the surge in artificial intelligence applications, has seen a reduction in delivery wait times from a peak of 8-11 months to 3-4 months, indicating a relief in supply pressure.

Additionally, with major cloud providers such as AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure offering easier access to AI computing services for customers, enterprises that previously purchased large quantities of H100 GPUs have begun further reselling these GPUs.

For instance, AWS introduced a new service allowing customers to rent GPUs for shorter periods, resolving previous chip demand issues and shortening the waiting time for artificial intelligence chips.

The report also indicates that customers are reselling these GPUs due to reduced scarcity and the high maintenance costs, leading these enterprise customers to make such decisions. This situation contrasts starkly with the market shortage a year ago.

However, even though the current difficulty in obtaining H100 GPUs has significantly decreased, the artificial intelligence market remains robust overall. The demand for large-scale artificial intelligence model computations persists for some enterprises, keeping the overall demand greater than the supply, thereby preventing a significant drop in the price of H100 GPUs.

The report emphasizes that the current ease of purchasing H100 GPUs has also brought about some changes in the market. Customers now prioritize price and practicality when leasing AI computing services from cloud service providers.

Additionally, alternatives to the H100 GPU have emerged in the current market, offering comparable performance and software support but at potentially more affordable prices, potentially contributing to a more equitable market condition.

TrendForce’s newest projections spotlight a 2024 landscape where demand for high-end AI servers—powered by NVIDIA, AMD, or other top-tier ASIC chips—will be heavily influenced by North America’s cloud service powerhouses.

Microsoft (20.2%), Google (16.6%), AWS (16%), and Meta (10.8%) are predicted to collectively command over 60% of global demand, with NVIDIA GPU-based servers leading the charge.

However, NVIDIA still faces ongoing hurdles in development as it contends with US restrictions.

TrendForce has pointed out that, despite NVIDIA’s stronghold in the data center sector—thanks to its GPU servers capturing up to 70% of the AI market—challenges continue to loom.

Three major challenges are set to limit the company’s future growth: Firstly, the US ban on technological exports has spurred China toward self-reliance in AI chips, with Huawei emerging as a noteworthy adversary. NVIDIA’s China-specific solutions, like the H20 series, might not match the cost-effectiveness of its flagship models, potentially dampening its market dominance.

Secondly, the trend toward proprietary ASIC development among US cloud behemoths, including Google, AWS, Microsoft, and Meta, is expanding annually due to scale and cost considerations.

Lastly, AMD presents competitive pressure with its cost-effective strategy, offering products at just 60–70% of the prices of comparable NVIDIA models. This allows AMD to penetrate the market more aggressively, especially with flagship clients. Microsoft is expected to be the most enthusiastic adopter of AMD’s high-end GPU MI300 solutions in 2024.

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• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200
• [News] NVIDIA Reports Record-Breaking 265% Revenue Growth in Latest Financial Report

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

The U.S. memory giant Micron Technology has started the mass production of high-bandwidth memory “HBM3e,” which will be utilized in NVIDIA’s latest AI chips.

Micron stated on February 26th that HBM3e consumes 30% less power than its competitors, meeting the demands of generative AI applications. Micron’s 24GB 8H HBM3e will be part of NVIDIA’s “H200” Tensor Core GPUs, breaking the previous exclusivity of SK Hynix as the sole supplier for the H100.

Per TrendForce’s earlier research into the HBM market, it has indicated that NVIDIA plans to diversify its HBM suppliers for more robust and efficient supply chain management. The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.

As per a previous report from NVIDIA last year, the H200 is scheduled to ship in the second quarter of this year (2024), replacing the current most powerful H100 in terms of computing power. Micron’s press release on February 26th has further solidified that Micron will begin shipping its 24GB 8H HBM3e in the second calendar quarter of 2024.

In the same press release, Micron’s Chief Business Officer, Sumit Sadana, has also indicated that“AI workloads are heavily reliant on memory bandwidth and capacity, and Micron is very well-positioned to support the significant AI growth ahead through our industry-leading HBM3e and HBM4 roadmap, as well as our full portfolio of DRAM and NAND solutions for AI applications.”

HBM is one of Micron’s most profitable products, and its complex construction process is part of the reason. Micron previously predicted that HBM revenue could reach hundreds of millions of dollars in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025.

Micron has further announced that it will share more about its industry-leading AI memory portfolio and roadmaps at the “GPU Technology Conference” (also known as the GTC conference) hosted by NVIDIA on March 18th.

Previously, Micron indicated in a December 2023 conference call with investors that generative AI could usher in a multi-year growth period for the company, with projected memory industry revenue reaching historic highs in 2025. They also mentioned at the time that HBM3e, developed for NVIDIA’s H200, had entered its final quality control phase.

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• [News] Micron’s Perspective on Memory Pricing, Believes it Could Rise Beyond 2025
• [News] H200 Unveiled: NVIDIA Integrates HBM3e for Enhanced AI Performance

(Photo credit: Micron)

According to a report from Bloomberg, sources reveal that Israeli firm Tower Semiconductor has proposed a USD 9 billion investment to establish a plant, while India’s Tata Group has proposed an USD 8 billion fab. Sources further indicate that both proposed locations for these projects are in the state of Gujarat.

Tower Semiconductor plans to establish a plant in India, which is expected to establish a foothold in emerging markets and move past the shadow of the failed Intel deal. While the company’s sales are far behind those of Intel and TSMC, it produces components for major clients like Broadcom and holds a significant position in rapidly growing fields like electric vehicles.

Sources cited in the report say that Tower Semiconductor hopes to expand its facility over the next decade, with the ultimate goal of producing 80,000 wafers per month. If approved by the Indian government, the plant could become India’s first semiconductor facility operated by a major player in the industry.

Previous reports from India’s media outlet, the Economic Times, have also indicated that India’s Tata group may collaborate with Taiwanese semiconductor foundries like UMC or PSMC to establish the first fab in India. Initially, they would produce mature process chips with a planned monthly capacity of 25,000 wafers. If successful, it would mark Taiwan’s semiconductor industry’s first venture into India.

Additionally, Japan’s Renesas Electronics is seeking to collaborate with CG Power and Industrial Solutions, a subsidiary of the Murugappa Group, to establish a chip packaging plant.

Semiconductors have become a significant geopolitical battleground, with the United States, Japan, and China investing heavily in domestic chip capacity. India’s plan to establish itself as a semiconductor manufacturing hub includes attracting overseas chipmakers’ investments to catch up and save on high import costs while bolstering the local smartphone manufacturing industry.

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• [News] Tata Reportedly Partners with Pegatron for iPhone Assembly in India
• [News] Tata Group Rumored to Invite Taiwanese Businesses to Establish Fabs in India, Possibly Partnering with UMC or PSMC

(Photo credit: Tata Group)

Intel, according to South Korea’s media outlet TheElec, is actively promoting its 18A process (equivalent to 1.8 nanometers) to South Korean fabless chip companies.

The report cites industry sources revealing that Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger personally engaged with senior executives of these South Korean fabless IC design companies last year. He briefed them on the latest developments in Intel’s foundry plans.

The same source further indicates that Intel is vigorously marketing the 18A process to South Korean chip startups and pledges various benefits to them.

Last week, Intel unveiled its 14A process, equivalent to a 1.4-nanometer process, and announced that chips utilizing this process will enter mass production in 2027. Intel has also announced that it has secured USD 15 billion in orders during its event Intel Foundry Direct Connect at San Jose.

Intel continues to emphasize its goal of becoming the second-largest foundry by 2030, aiming to surpass current foundry runner-up Samsung Electronics and trailing behind market leader TSMC.

As for the mass production of the 18A process, Intel has indicated that it is scheduled to commence by the end of this year. This signifies that Intel’s process technology will surpass both Samsung and TSMC, as the latter two are currently preparing to launch 2-nanometer processes.

Samsung is planning to utilize the gate-all-around (GAA) transistor architecture, initially developed for the 3-nanometer process, for its upcoming 2-nanometer process. On the other hand, TSMC and Intel have opted to employ the fin field-effect transistor (FinFET) structure for their 3-nanometer chips.

Currently, these three major players are actively vying for customers. A report from the Business Korea has indicated that Samsung Electronics recently secured an order from the Japanese AI startup Preferred Networks (PFN) to produce semiconductors based on the 2-nanometer process.

Per the report, while this Japanese company initially planned to use TSMC’s process for producing their Gen 2 AI chips, they will now transition to Samsung’s 2-nanometer process.

Read more

• [News] Gelsinger Opens Up, as Intel Reportedly Expands Orders to TSMC
• [News] Samsung Secures 2-Nanometer Order from Japanese AI Startup Preferred Networks

(Photo credit: Intel)

Currently, the top three leaders—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—in the HBM sector are undergoing unprecedented expansion. Below is an overview of the progress made by each of these giants in the realm of HBM:

• Samsung: HBM Production to Increase 2.5 Times in 2024, Another 2 Times in 2025

Samsung Electronics has begun expanding its HBM3 supply since the fourth quarter of 2023. Prior to this, internal messages within Samsung during the fourth quarter of 2023 indicated that samples of the next-generation HBM3e with an 8-layer stack had been provided to customers, with plans for mass production to commence in the first half of this year.

Han Jin-man, Executive Vice President in charge of Samsung’s semiconductor business in the United States, stated at CES 2024 this year that Samsung’s HBM chip production volume will increase 2.5 times compared to last year and is projected to double again next year.

Samsung officials also revealed that the company plans to increase the maximum production of HBM to 150,000 to 170,000 units per month before the fourth quarter of this year in a bid to compete for the HBM market in 2024.

Previously, Samsung Electronics spent KRW 10.5 billion to acquire the plant and equipment of Samsung Display located in Tianan City, South Korea, to expand HBM capacity. They also plan to invest KRW 700 billion to 1 trillion in building new packaging lines.

• SK Hynix: To Commence Mass Production of World’s First Fifth-Generation High-Bandwidth Memory HBM3e in March

According to the latest report from Korean media Moneytoday on February 20th, SK Hynix will commence mass production of the world’s first fifth-generation high-bandwidth memory, HBM3e, in March this year. The company plans to supply the first batch of products to NVIDIA within the next month.

However, SK hynix noted that it “cannot confirm any details related to its partner.”

In its financial report, SK Hynix indicated plans to increase capital expenditure in 2024, with a focus on high-end storage products such as HBM. The HBM production capacity is expected to more than double compared to last year.

Previously, SK Hynix forecasted that by 2030, its HBM shipments would reach 100 million units annually. As a result, the company has decided to allocate approximately KRW 10 trillion (approximately USD 7.6 billion) in CAPEX for 2024. This represents a significant increase compared to the projected CAPEX of KRW 6 to 7 trillion in 2023, with an increase ranging from 43% to 67%.

The focus of the expansion is on constructing and expanding factories. In June of last year, Korean media reported that SK Hynix was preparing to invest in backend process equipment to expand its HBM3 packaging capabilities at its Icheon plant. By the end of this year, it is expected that the scale of backend process equipment at this plant will nearly double.

Furthermore, SK Hynix is also set to construct a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Indiana, USA. According to the Financial Times, this South Korean chip manufacturer will produce HBM stacks at this facility, which will be used for NVIDIA GPUs produced by TSMC.

• Micron: Continuing the Pursuit, Betting on HBM4

Micron holds a relatively low share in the global HBM market. In order to narrow this gap, Micron has placed a significant bet on its next-generation product, HBM3e.

Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, stated, ” Micron is in the final stages of qualifying our industry-leading HBM3e to be used in NVIDIA’s next-generation Grace Hopper GH200 and H200 platforms.”

Micron plans to begin mass shipments of HBM3e memory in early 2024. Mehrotra emphasized that their new product has garnered significant interest across the industry, implying that NVIDIA may not be the sole customer ultimately utilizing Micron’s HBM3e.

In this competition where there is no first-mover advantage, Micron seems to be betting on the yet-to-be-determined standard of the next-generation HBM4. Official announcements reveal that Micron has disclosed its next-generation HBM memory, tentatively named HBM Next. It is expected that HBM Next will offer capacities of 36GB and 64GB, available in various configurations.

Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron does not intend to integrate HBM and logic chips into a single chip. In the development of the next-generation HBM, the Korean and American memory manufacturers have distinct strategies.

Micron may address AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA that faster memory access speeds can be achieved through combination chips like HBM-GPU. However, relying solely on a single chip means greater risk.

As per TrendForce, HBM4 is planned to be launched in 2026. It is expected that specifications and performance, including those for NVIDIA and other CSP (Cloud Service Providers) in future product applications, will be further optimized.

With specifications evolving towards higher speeds, it will be the first time that the base die of HBM, also known as the Logic die, will adopt a 12nm process wafer. This part will be provided by foundries, necessitating collaboration between foundries and memory manufacturers for single HBM product integration.

Furthermore, as customer demands for computational efficiency increase, HBM4 is expected to evolve beyond the existing 12hi (12-layer) stack to 16hi (16-layer) configurations. The anticipation of higher layer counts is also expected to drive demand for new stacking methods such as hybrid bonding. HBM4 12hi products are slated for release in 2026, while 16hi products are expected to debut in 2027.

Read more

• [News] SK Hynix Signs Prioritized Supply Agreement with NVIDIA for HBM3e, 2023 Q4 Revenue Expected to Surpass KRW 10 Trillion Again
• [News] H200 Unveiled: NVIDIA Integrates HBM3e for Enhanced AI Performance

(Photo credit: Samsung)